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All Policy Analysis by Patrick Clawson
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Brief Analysis
Tehran Makes Gains, But Concerns Persist About Regime Vulnerability
The regime has been able to drive economic growth, stifle mass protests, and expand its infiltration of neighboring countries, but lingering existential concerns could spur it toward even bolder courses of action—including potential nuclear breakout.
Jan 30, 2024
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
Hamas Attacks: A Turning Point for U.S. Policy
A Statement of Washington Institute Experts
The October 7 terrorist attacks by Hamas against Israel represent a turning point that should bring home oft-overlooked realities about the Middle East and compel U.S. policymakers to rethink preconceptions about the region and America's role and interests in it.
Oct 13, 2023
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Robert Satloff
Dennis Ross
Michael Singh
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Inside Iran’s Regime (Part 1): Growing Fissures and Poor Morale in the IRGC?
A recently leaked document—if genuine—may indicate substantial internal skepticism toward the regime’s handling of the current domestic crisis, and perhaps even pressure for limited reforms.
Mar 28, 2023
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Violence in Iran’s Uprising: What Happens If Either Side Escalates?
The regime still has additional means of making the crackdown even more lethal, and parts of the country are potentially primed to take up arms in response, with uncertain consequences on the ground.
Dec 8, 2022
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Farzin Nadimi
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Changing Population Patterns Will Reshape the Middle East
Several of the region’s demographic heavyweights will be surpassed, and major shifts at the global level may affect how great powers vie for influence there as well.
Nov 22, 2022
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Patrick Clawson
Video
Brief Analysis
2022 Qatar World Cup: Sports, Politics & Human Rights
Watch an expert panel discussion of the political, diplomatic, economic, social, and strategic implications of the 2022 World Cup for Qatar and the wider Middle East.
Oct 28, 2022
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Susan L. Ziadeh
Marti Flacks
James M. Dorsey
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
How Much Would Iran Gain Financially from Returning to the JCPOA?
A closer look at what funds would actually be accessible and what impact they would have on Iran’s economy.
Mar 16, 2022
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Katherine Bauer
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Next Budget Assumes No Nuclear Deal
The government seems to believe the economy will grow significantly even without sanctions relief or increased oil revenue.
Dec 14, 2021
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Patrick Clawson
Video
Brief Analysis
From Afghanistan to the Middle East:
Implications of the U.S. Withdrawal and Taliban Victory
Three Institute scholars discuss the fallout from Kabul, with special focus on the consequences for global jihadism, Iranian policy, and regional responses.
Aug 26, 2021
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Kathryn Wheelbarger
Aaron Y. Zelin
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Raisi Did Not Win, Reformers Lost
Mass support for reformists has disappeared among Iran’s severely disenchanted electorate, leaving Hemmati and his circle with little means of avoiding dismal turnout and vote tallies.
Jun 22, 2021
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Patrick Clawson
Video
Brief Analysis
Iran's Coronavirus Crisis: Implications for U.S. Policy
Read or watch an expert conversation on the immediate and long-term effects of the Islamic Republic’s response to the pandemic. How will Iranian politics change? How much aid can Tehran get under sanctions? How will the global economic slowdown affect daily life there?
Apr 16, 2020
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Amir Afkhami
Mehdi Khalaji
Patrick Clawson
Katherine Bauer
Brief Analysis
Opposing an IMF Loan to Iran: Not an Outlier, Not a Barrier to Aid
Washington often objects to loans that it deems insufficiently rigorous, but its blocking attempts usually fail—and Iran has no need for the funds anyway.
Apr 14, 2020
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Don’t Count Out U.S. Oil Production as a Market-Shaper
Total U.S. production from all sources will remain the world’s largest no matter how low prices go, leaving Washington (and Texas) with considerable room to help domestic companies and press Riyadh and Moscow on stabilizing prices.
Mar 20, 2020
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Soleimani’s Popularity Is Largely Limited to Iran
Mass funerals aside, his image as the quintessential Iranian nationalist made most Middle Easterners wary or actively hostile toward him, so the United States is unlikely to face popular reprisals following his death.
Jan 6, 2020
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran’s New Budget Is Tight, But Not Tight Enough
Rouhani has taken a remarkably austere fiscal approach ahead of the looming parliamentary election, but the country’s economic situation is still not sustainable over the long run.
Dec 13, 2019
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Khamenei’s Domestic and Foreign Response Options to the Protests
The Supreme Leader faces tough choices about who to blame for the protests, and what impact they should have on policy toward the United States.
Nov 21, 2019
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Gasoline Protests: Regime Unpopular but Resilient
The demonstrations indicate widespread popular rejection of the political system, but this same system remains well organized to deflect and counter unrest.
Nov 18, 2019
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Patrick Clawson
Mehdi Khalaji
Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Jul 22, 2019
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Khamenei Will See Sanctions on Him as a Direct Challenge to the Revolution
The Supreme Leader regards his rule as the central feature of the Islamic Revolution, so the latest White House order will seem like a shot at the entire system.
Jun 27, 2019
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Patrick Clawson
Mehdi Khalaji
Brief Analysis
Renewing the Iran Sanctions Waivers (Part 2): Energy and Afghan Trade
Washington should phase out the oil waivers carefully and prevent Chabahar port from becoming an escape valve for Iran.
Apr 22, 2019
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Patrick Clawson
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