Proliferation

The regime’s fears of new oil restrictions, simmering domestic unrest, eroding regional deterrence, and unpredictable U.S.-Israeli military action can all be leveraged to steer Khamenei away from racing toward a nuclear weapon.

Despite questions about the utility of its huge missile arsenal—whose importance has only increased since the collapse of the “axis of resistance”—Iran will likely double down on this capability to ensure the viability of its military strategy.

Although recent military setbacks have fueled Iranian talk about a possible nuclear breakout, uncertainty about the risks, costs, and utility of weaponization may give the United States leverage to ensure that Tehran continues to hedge.

Iranian missiles for Russia, Houthi attacks on Israel, and North Korea’s surprise display of centrifuges have quickly changed the atmosphere of the nuclear agency’s annual meeting.

The small but significant step could facilitate U.S. technology transfers to the kingdom, said to be a key element in any potential Israeli-Saudi normalization deal—but proliferation concerns persist.

Iran’s new reformist president will need time to generate consensus at home before making any significant foreign policy moves; Washington should do the same.

Given the latest uptick in hostilities between Iran and Israel and their reported threats against nuclear facilities, the visit will likely emphasize diplomacy.

The latest IAEA report shows why the West must refocus on Tehran’s nuclear program, which continues to expand even as international will to address it seemingly declines.

Policymakers need to stay focused on halting the regime’s fissile material buildup while undertaking a broader, longer-term effort to shape its assessment of the risks, costs, and utility of nuclear weapons.