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Brief Analysis
The Other Threat to Oil Supplies:
Shiite Tensions in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain
Violence in eastern Saudi Arabia and continuing tension in Bahrain are reminders that Gulf oil exports face other threats besides potential Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Should Iran Have a Role in Syrian Peace Talks?
As the crisis in Syria heats up, so too has talk of a possible Iranian role in resolving it. Visiting Tehran last week, U.N. envoy Kofi Annan asserted that "Iran could play a positive role" in Syria. Two weeks earlier, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov lobbied for Iran to be
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Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
Can It Get Worse in Syria? It Just Did
Syria's descent into ever-greater violence steepened yesterday. Driven by the regime's desperate attempt to stay in power, an already ugly conflict took an ominous turn with the reported movement of chemical munitions and what appears to be the worst massacre of civilians yet. CHEMICAL WEAPONS MOVEMENT Although details are lacking
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Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
Annan's Latest Syria Plan Is a Bad Deal
UN envoy Kofi Annan's latest plan to end the violence in Syria -- perhaps better labeled the Annan-Assad plan -- is a bad one. It extends yet another lifeline to the regime, undercuts the armed opposition's growing effectiveness, and substitutes diplomatic bustle for progress toward ousting Bashar al-Assad. Like Annan's
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Jeffrey White
Articles & Testimony
How to Advance Transition to a Post-Assad Future
In this paper, the former chief of staff to Israel's minister of defense argues that, in addition to the moral imperative to help the Syrian people, there are also strong strategic reasons for the West and various regional states to be more proactive in bringing about the end of the
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Michael Herzog
Articles & Testimony
What's Going On in Egyptian Politics? Don't Ask Egyptians
One of the more charming aspects of post-Mubarak Egypt is the frequency with which political debate erupts spontaneously between ordinary pedestrians, who are then quickly surrounded by dozens of on-listeners eager to hear competing points and, more often than not, interject their own. These deliberative blobs are the best indication
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Eric Trager
Articles & Testimony
Oil Sanctions against Iran Will Not Be Enough
Predictably, last week's "expert level" talks between Iran and world powers were no more fruitful than previous rounds, leaving little optimism for a negotiated resolution to the nuclear crisis anytime soon. Western policymakers, buoyed by their success in reducing Iran's oil exports, appear content to give sanctions more time to
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Michael Singh
Articles & Testimony
What The Tlass Defection Means to Assad
Thursday came news that General Manaf Tlass, a senior commander of Syria's elite Republican Guard -- the troops most directly responsible for defending the embattled Bashar Assad regime -- had defected to Turkey. While the operational impact his departure on his particular unit may be inconsequential, the impact on the
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David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
The Muslim Brotherhood's Long Game:
Egypt's Ruling Party Plots Its Path to Power
In the 18 months since the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak, the Muslim Brotherhood has risen swiftly from the cave to the castle. It founded the now-dominant Freedom and Justice Party last April, won a massive plurality in the winter parliamentary elections, and, last week, celebrated as its candidate, Mohamed Morsi
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Eric Trager
Brief Analysis
Syria's Eastern Front: The Iraq Factor
The United States should use its close relations with Iraq's Sunni Arab tribes to reduce the risk of spillover from Syria.
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Blind in Baghdad
Something is stirring in Iraq. On July 3, car bombs ripped through mainly Shiite neighborhoods across the country, killing 36 people. It was the latest tragedy in a bloody month -- a prolonged political crisis has weakened the government in Baghdad, giving insurgent groups an opening to expand their operations
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Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Senior Sunni Defections in Syria
The reported defection of a senior Sunni commander and friend of Assad, if true, would be a blow to the regime and an opportunity for Washington.
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Andrew J. Tabler
Jeffrey White
Articles & Testimony
Egypt's Islamist Future
The struggle for supremacy between the Islamists and the military is second to a more important political battle: what kind of Islamic state Egypt will become.
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David Schenker
Eric Trager to «Al-Watan»: «Morsi’s» Hostile Statements on «Septemebr 11» Concerns Washington
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Eric Trager
Brief Analysis
Mounting Pressure on the Syrian Army
Unless the army finds a way to relieve growing pressure on its capabilities and cohesion, it will likely collapse, sweeping away much of the regime in the process.
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Jeffrey White
Articles & Testimony
Fluid Alliances: The Syrian Government's Support for and Complicity in Terrorism
The Syrian government's fluid relationships with terrorist groups such as Hizballah and Hamas have been further complicated by the ongoing popular uprising against Bashar al-Assad. This article dissects several of these key relationships, documenting how they evolved before and during the uprising and forecasting how they might change upon Assad's
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Andrew J. Tabler
Articles & Testimony
The Clerics vs. Modernity:
Failure of the Islamic Republic's Soft Power
The Islamic Republic's greatest fear is neither a military attack on its shadowy nuclear program nor a forced suspension of uranium enrichment, but a cultural invasion in the form of Western modernity.
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Mehdi Khalaji
Articles & Testimony
Revolutionary Fallout: Egypt Faces Early Security Challenges
As post-revolutionary Egypt slowly shapes a new political landscape, it faces a resurgent security challenge from extremist groups. David Schenker examines recent incidents, security force capabilities, and the extent to which Islamist political blocs might influence the country's domestic and regional security posture. The following is a summary of the
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David Schenker
Video
Issues in Syria
David Pollock discussed Saturday's emergency meeting in Geneva on the crisis in Syria on C-SPAN's Washington Journal.
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David Pollock
In-Depth Reports
The Unexpected Vitality of Turkish-Israeli Trade
Given that political tensions continue to run high between Turkey and Israel, it would be inaccurate to describe their relations as good, or even on the mend. At the same time, booming trade ties and other economic indicators suggest that the two countries have great potential for a fresh start
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Soner Cagaptay
Tyler Evans
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