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Articles & Testimony
Turkish-Iranian Ties Flourish in New Era
Although the AKP's Iran policy is guided by a core ideological stance, Iran's Turkey policy is at core shaped by national interests.
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Soner Cagaptay
Alex Vatanka
Brief Analysis
Changing a Stagnant Political Order? End of Ben Ali Era in Tunisia
Today, President Zine al-Abadine Ben Ali of Tunisia stepped down after days of worsening riots and, coincidentally, one day after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton bluntly criticized Middle Eastern leaders during a speech in Qatar, where she accused them of tolerating "corrupt institutions and a stagnant political order." In Tunis
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J. Scott Carpenter
David Schenker
Brief Analysis
The White House, Congress, and the Middle East in 2011: Political and Policy Forecast
On January 10, 2011, Dan Glickman and Vin Weber addressed a special Policy Forum luncheon at The Washington Institute. Mr. Glickman, a senior advisor at the Bipartisan Policy Center, previously served as a Democratic congressman from Kansas and as secretary of agriculture in the Clinton administration. Mr. Weber, a partner
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Vin Weber
Brief Analysis
Hizballah Challenges Lebanon's Prime Minister Hariri -- and President Obama
Yesterday, January 12, as Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri prepared to meet with President Obama in the Oval Office, the Hizballah-led opposition withdrew its support from the Beirut government, forcing its collapse. In the next few days, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) is widely expected to announce between two
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David Schenker
Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Who Wins in a Two-Party System in Turkey?
As Turkey approaches elections in June 2011, a consolidation of political parties appears to be in the making, under the auspices of the governing Justice and Development Party, or AKP.
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Saudi Arabia's Oil Policy Vacancies
During the past three months, world prices for oil have steadily increased, leading to predictions that the $100 per barrel level will soon be breached. Although, in part, the increases reflect recovering demand in the world economy, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) warned this week that prices are entering
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Combating Violent Extremism: The Counterradicalization Debate in 2011
On January 5, 2011, Peter Neumann, Maajid Nawaz, and Matthew Levitt addressed a special Policy Forum luncheon at The Washington Institute. Dr. Neumann is director of the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation at King's College London and a visiting professor at Georgetown University's Center for Peace and Security
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Gaza's Economy: How Hamas Stays in Power
Since Israel's August 2005 withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, Hamas has evolved from a relatively small movement into a well-funded conglomerate. Instead of being crippled by sanctions and siege, the organization has found ways to surmount early difficulties -- such as frequent payroll delays -- and establish an effective system
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Ehud Yaari
Articles & Testimony
Turkish Political Physics, or Why the AKP Might Stay in Charge for a Long Time
The electoral threshold intended to keep Kurdish nationalists out of the Turkish parliament now excludes almost everyone else from the legislature.
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Combating Violent Extremism:
The Counterradicalization Debate in 2011
Following a year in which homegrown terrorist activity increased sharply, the 2010 holiday season witnessed a spate of attacks, plots, warnings, and arrests around the world, from Sweden to India to Portland, Oregon. As a result, efforts to combat violent extremism are being hotly debated. In Britain, the "Prevent" counterradicalization
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Seismic Shift: Israel's Natural Gas Discoveries
On December 29, 2010, Houston-based Noble Energy announced a "significant natural gas discovery" in the Leviathan offshore license area eighty miles off the northern Israeli port of Haifa. According to the company, recent measurements confirmed initial estimates for the field of 16 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas, making it
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Tension with Gaza: Israel's Deterrence under Pressure
In December 2010, violence increased significantly along Israel's border with Gaza, manifest by high-trajectory fire (rockets and mortars) on southern Israel, counterstrikes by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), and clashes along the border security fence. The Gaza situation since the end of Israel's Operation Cast Lead in January 2009 has
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Jeffrey White
Articles & Testimony
New Kemalism: Religious but Not Conservative
The CHP has to reinvent itself as the party of secularism, to find a place where it can be at peace with religion but also promote socially liberal values.
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
President Obama's First Two Years in the Middle East
President Obama assumed office in 2009 with an ambitious Middle East policy agenda. Atop the list of his campaign pledges, then Senator Obama vowed to pursue Israeli-Palestinian peace and re-engage in diplomacy with Tehran and Damascus. Given these grand plans, perhaps not surprisingly the first two years of the Obama
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David Schenker
Brief Analysis
The Coming Secession Crisis in Sudan:
Will There Be War?
On December 17, 2010, Andrew Natsios and Richard Williamson addressed a special Policy Forum at The Washington Institute discussing the ramifications of the upcoming Sudanese referendum. Mr. Natsios, a former U.S. special envoy to Sudan, is currently on the faculty of Georgetown University's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service
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Articles & Testimony
Iran's Supreme Power Struggle
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has never been happy about the status of the Iranian presidency -- neither during his own tenure, from 1981-1989, nor during the terms of his three successors. Tension between the president and the Supreme Leader is built into the Islamic Republic's core. The Supreme
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Mehdi Khalaji
Brief Analysis
WikiLeaks, Gulf Arabs, and Iran:
An Opportunity for U.S. Policy
Recent WikiLeaks revelations about the discrepancy between the public and private views on Iran voiced by Gulf Arab leaders have been widely covered by the pan-Arab media without provoking policy shifts or internal tensions in Gulf Arab states. U.S. officials should therefore be encouraged in their policy of pressing for
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David Pollock
Articles & Testimony
The Taiwan Calculus in China's Strategy Towards the North Korea-Iran Axis
Beijing's reaction to the November 2010 North Korean attack on the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong is a case study of how China's continuing support of the North Korea-Iran axis is intimately linked with its fears of a U.S.-Taiwan alignment, among other possible scenarios. This paper explores how that axis
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Christina Lin
Brief Analysis
Beyond the Freeze Deal:
A New Agenda for U.S. Efforts on the Peace Process
The recent announcement that the Obama administration has ended efforts to negotiate a ninety-day extension of Israel's moratorium on West Bank settlement construction is more opportunity than embarrassment. After twenty-two months of near-fruitless efforts to promote Israeli-Palestinian negotiations conditioned on a total cessation of Israeli settlement activity, the administration can
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Palestinian Public Opinion:
Tactically Flexible, Strategically Ambitious
Amid the latest setback in the peace process -- the ongoing failure to agree on a "peace talks for settlement freeze" deal -- Palestinian public opinion trends reveal unexpected flexibility on short-term tactics, but also troubling long-term intentions. Five public opinion polls of West Bank and Gaza Palestinians taken by
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David Pollock
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