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Articles & Testimony
How Much Brinksmanship Will Israel Tolerate?
Patrick Clawson participated in an online forum sponsored by TheAtlantic.com discussing Atlantic magazine's September cover story by Jeffrey Goldberg outlining the prospects and implications of an Israeli strike against Iran. Read contributions by all forum participants here. Robin [Wright] is right (forgive the pun), and Jeff[rey Goldberg] is not, about
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Brief Analysis
Major U.S.-Saudi Arms Deal to Bolster Riyadh against Iran
When Congress returns from its summer recess after Labor Day, the Department of Defense will provide informal notification of the U.S. intention to sell up to $60 billion in military equipment to Saudi Arabia. The likely deal is part of a U.S. commitment predating the Obama administration to strengthen regional
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
It's Time to Get Tough on Iran
The media has recently been rife with speculation about the possibility of a U.S. or Israeli preventive strike on Iran's nuclear infrastructure -- from former CIA Director Michael Hayden's observation last month that the drift toward military action against Iran appears "inexorable" to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
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David B. Crist
Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
The East Asian Loophole in Iran Sanctions:
Encouraging Compliance by Our Allies and China
Starting in August, U.S. officials are visiting East Asia, Latin America, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to garner support for tightening Iran sanctions under UN Security Council Resolution 1929. Robert Einhorn, the U.S. State Department's special advisor for nonproliferation and arms control, and Daniel Glaser, deputy assistant secretary of
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Christina Lin
Brief Analysis
Internal Divisions among Iranian Hardliners Come to the Fore
During an August 9 visit to Syria, Ali Akbar Velayati, influential advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, stated that Iran is ready to negotiate with the United States regarding its nuclear program. Yesterday, however, Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast announced that Iran has no plans for bilateral negotiation with Washington
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Mehdi Khalaji
Brief Analysis
Status Check on the Struggle against Global Terrorism
The State Department's recently released Country Reports on Terrorism 2009 (CRT 2009) reveals several important trends in the evolution of global terrorism. The good news is that al-Qaeda is facing significant pressure, even as the organization and its affiliates and followers retain the intent and capability to carry out attacks
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Military Implications of the Israel-Lebanon Border Incident
The August 3 border clash between the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has important military implications, demonstrating the readiness of the IDF to respond to any border incident and revealing the potential for the LAF and the Lebanese state to become directly and substantially involved
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Jeffrey White
Articles & Testimony
The Women of Hezbollah
Since the 1980s, the Shia terrorist group Hezbollah has not been given to blunt public moralizing about the need for women to wear the veil. It originally made no secret of its desire to convert Lebanon into a Shia Islamic state -- the organization's 1985 manifesto called for the establishment
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David Schenker
Brief Analysis
How to Form a New Iraqi Government while U.S. Combat Forces Withdraw
In an August 2 speech, President Obama confirmed that regardless of the status of government formation in Iraq, the U.S. military remained committed to the withdrawal of all combat forces by the month's end. Meanwhile, Iraq is still struggling to form a government in the long wake of the March
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Ahmed Ali
Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Brushfire or Spark?
Incident on the Israel-Lebanon Border
Yesterday, Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) soldiers opened fire on an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) unit removing a tree near the border security fence. In the resulting fighting, a senior IDF officer, two Lebanese soldiers, and a Lebanese journalist were killed, making the clash the most intense military engagement in the
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David Schenker
Andrew J. Tabler
Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
Ahmadinezhad's Bomb Rhetoric:
Opportunities for U.S. Policy
On July 31, according to Iran's semiofficial Mehr News Agency, presidential chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim Mashai claimed that the West had raised no objections to President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad's open proclamation that the Islamic Republic could build a nuclear bomb. How should this surprising claim be interpreted? And what implications
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
The Scary European Model
There has been speculation about where Turkey is heading ever since the Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002. The early years suggested to most observers that Turkey was heading West, as the AKP lobbied hard for membership in the European Union, and pushed the liberal-democratic
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Articles & Testimony
How Conspiracy Theories Spread
How and why do conspiracy theories spread in Turkey? Recent developments are a case in point, demonstrating the role of government rhetoric in spreading such theories, as well as anti-Western sentiments. Lately, Turkey has experienced a spike in Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, terror attacks, resulting in more than 50
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Articles & Testimony
Not Just a Strategic Asset, but a Bonanza
Adapted from remarks given at the Nixon Center debate "Israel: Asset or Liability?" with Chas Freeman on July 20. Read the Jerusalem Post's summary of Ambassador Freeman's remarks. See comprehensive coverage of the debate, including complete video. I don't think there is anyone who would disagree with the contention that
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Articles & Testimony
Blaming 'Subcontractors': Turkish Rhetoric, the PKK, and Israel
Over the past two months, Turkey has experienced a spike in terrorist attacks by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), resulting in more than fifty deaths. The increased violence -- coming after a relative lull in such attacks -- has touched raw nerves among the population. As a result, the issue
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Turkey's New Foreign Policy Direction: Implications for U.S.-Turkish Relations
Soner Cagaptay, a senior fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute, testified before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs on July 28, 2010. The following is an excerpt from his prepared remarks. "...The AKP has made a 180-degree turn in Turkey's Middle East policy, moving
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Racing against Time:
Reform in North Africa and Transatlantic Strategies
In this analysis from the German Marshall Fund's Mediterranean Paper Series 2010, Scott Carpenter explores recent economic and political developments in Morocco, Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia, and the mechanisms by which the transatlantic community has sought to channel social, political, and economic change in them -- for both good and
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Articles & Testimony
Iranian Re-Revolution:
How the Green Movement Is Repeating Iranian History
On June 10, when the Iranian opposition movement cancelled its planned commemoration of the anniversary of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's disputed reelection, commentators assumed that the Green Movement was finally finished. For months, it had been criticized as lacking strong leadership and for being unable to seriously challenge Iran's entrenched regime. But
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Articles & Testimony
U.S. Revamps Its 'Muddle East' Policy
The foreign policy team of US President Barack Obama is undertaking a reassessment of its policy all over the Middle East, including Israel. No one has made or will make a public declaration about such a change, but a reassessment is nonetheless under way, and we can already detect the
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Brief Analysis
Yemen's Forever War:
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
On July 13, 2010, Christopher Boucek addressed a special Policy Forum luncheon at The Washington Institute, along with April Longley Alley and Barak Salmoni. Dr. Boucek, an associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discussed al-Qaeda's activities and affiliates in Yemen. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his
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