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Brief Analysis
Syrian Strategy in Lebanon
As Syrian troops continue to withdraw from parts of Lebanon, three bomb attacks have occurred within eight days in predominantly Christian areas: a March 19 car bomb wrecked the front of a building in New Jdeideh, wounding nine; a March 22 bomb ripped through an elite shopping center in Kaslik
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Robert Rabil
Articles & Testimony
Memo to: Karen P. Hughes<br>
Re: The Mission of Public Diplomacy
Congratulations on your nomination as undersecretary of state for public diplomacy. Though this is a third-level State Department appointment, with an office about a half-mile away from your former prime spot in the West Wing of the White House, it is actually one of the most important jobs in the
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Brief Analysis
Assessing the Iraqi Insurgency (Part II):
Devising Appropriate Analytical Measures
In countering insurgencies—wars without fronts, against often-elusive enemies—there is a temptation to rely on quantitative measures to gauge success. Although tracking and assessing trends in, for example, the number of insurgents and attacks is fundamental to any tactical or operational appreciation of the Sunni Arab insurgency in Iraq, a strategic
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Assessing the Iraqi Insurgency (Part I):
Problems and Approaches
Two years after the beginning of the war in Iraq, much uncertainty and confusion remain regarding the status and direction of the insurgency. This fact has hindered clear discourse about progress, or the lack thereof, in Iraq. For example, much public attention has focused on the number of remaining insurgents
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Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
The Role of International Monitors and Observers in the Lebanese Elections
President George W. Bush recently stated, “The elections in Lebanon must be fully and carefully monitored by international observers.” Already, Lebanese prime minister Omar Karami has issued a de facto invitation to former president Jimmy Carter to fulfill that role. Some skepticism is warranted, particularly with regard to the notion
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Patrick Clawson
Robert Rabil
Articles & Testimony
Thinking the Unthinkable
What do Georgia, Ukraine, and Lebanon have in common? Their publics have said no to fear. They would not be silenced or intimidated as they rejected the fraudulent elections and corrupt governments imposed on them. Iraqi Shiites and, to a lesser extent, the Kurds could be added to this list
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
From Beirut to Algiers:
The Arab League’s Role in the Lebanon Crisis
Arab leaders meet in Algiers on March 22 for an Arab League summit, at a moment of high tension within Lebanon over the pace and extent of Syria’s military withdrawal and the future domestic political map. Despite the important roles many of the summiteers have played in urging Damascus to
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Robert Rabil
Articles & Testimony
New Hope for the Holy Land
After years of terror and violence, the recent changes in the Palestinian leadership and a new Israeli policy supported by a broad parliamentary coalition suggest a window of opportunity to make progress between Israelis and Palestinians in 2005. Diplomatic engagement on a defined agenda could in the short term restore
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David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
U.S. Needs Longer-Term Plan on Terror
We are now 3½ years into the war on terror, with no end in sight. It is time for the U.S. government to acknowledge that fact by thinking longer-term as it combats terrorism. While not necessarily reducing the focus on the day-to-day efforts to prevent a recurrence of 9-11, the
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Brief Analysis
Assessing the Bush Administration's Policy of 'Constructive Instability' (Part II):
Regional Dynamics
In Lebanon, the Bush Administration's regional policy of "constructive instability" is approaching a critical juncture, with important decisions looming about how the further implementation of UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1559 relates to other U.S. strategic interests. More generally, the policy is having an effect throughout the region, from the
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
The Arrest of Saudi Reformers One Year On
A year ago, on March 16, 2004, the Saudi authorities arrested thirteen reformist intellectuals, including one university academic who was reportedly taken away in handcuffs in front of his class. Three days later the arrests were an issue taken up by then Secretary of State Colin Powell when he arrived
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Assessing the Bush Administration’s Policy of 'Constructive Instability' (Part I):
Lebanon and Syria
The Bush Administration's policy of "constructive instability" in the Middle East is facing a critical juncture in Lebanon. Taking advantage of a rare confluence of events and international interests, President George W. Bush has focused U.S. efforts on one plank of UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1559 -- the withdrawal
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
March to Modernity
If countries could be vegetables, Turkey would be an onion. Every time you take off a layer of skin, hoping to get to the core, you come across yet another skin. In The Turks Today, Andrew Mango successfully peels modern Turkey to its core. Most people who have rubbed elbows
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
What Role for the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria’s Future?
In calling for a demonstration in Damascus on March 10, Haitham Maleh, an opposition figure with close connections to the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, proclaimed, “We are 85 percent of the country”—an apparent gesture of solidarity against Syria’s ruling Alawite minority. The group of about 100 demonstrators who answered his call
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Michael Jacobson
Brief Analysis
After the Hariri Assassination:
Syria, Lebanon, and U.S. Policy
When Bashar al-Asad assumed power in 2001, there was widespread optimism that he would, by virtue of his British education and Western outlook, modernize the Syrian government and expand individual and political rights. Yet, after a short period of preliminary change, dubbed the "Damascus Spring," Asad proved unwilling or unable
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Brief Analysis
Saudi Elections in Regional Perspective:
The Shiite 'Threat' Theory
The most significant area of Saudi Arabia affected by the March 3 municipal elections was the enormous Eastern Province, which contains most of the kingdom's vast oil wealth and serves as home to its minority Shiite population. Unsurprisingly, local Shiites triumphed in several towns, winning nearly all of the seats
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Preventing Iran and Hizballah from Filling the Void in Lebanon
The March 8 mass rally in Beirut, organized by Hizballah to counter the popular Lebanese opposition movement, serves as a reminder that establishing genuine freedom and democracy in Lebanon will require more than a Syrian withdrawal. Whereas the opposition, backed by strong international and regional sentiment, focuses on rejecting Syria’s
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Michael Herzog
Iran and Syria:
State Sponsorship in the Age of Terror Networks
The following lecture was published as a chapter in Confronting Terrorism Financing, American Foreign Policy Council (Lanham, MD: University Press of America, 2005). The age of “network terrorism” results from the loosely affiliated networks that, taken together, form the potent international terrorist threat that challenges Western civilization today. Such networks
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Changing Turkish Public Attitudes toward the United States:
Premises and Prospects
American and Turkish media have been awash recently with news of increased Turkish resentment toward the United States. Media coverage has focused on negative portrayals of U.S. foreign policy in Turkey, including recent opinion polls such as a January 19 BBC survey, according to which 82 percent of Turks oppose
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Bashar al-Asad's Fateful Speech:
A Policy of Inconsistency and Paranoia
With international pressure rising for a full and speedy Syrian troop withdrawal from Lebanon, Syrian president Bashar al-Asad responded with a speech to his nation's rubber-stamp parliament on Saturday, March 5, that was a blend of defiance and conciliation, leavened with inconsistency and paranoia. If one of Asad's tasks was
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Robert Satloff
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