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Brief Analysis
Lessons from Mosul
The northern Iraqi city of Mosul and its province Nineveh have become the predominant hub of Sunni Arab insurgent activity, making them one of the areas least likely to be able to host effective polling for the January 30 elections. In the lead-up to the elections, the Multinational Forces (MNF)
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Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Hizballah and the Anitglobalization Movement:
A New Coalition?
The World Social Forum (WSF) is currently (January 26–31) convening a Global Anti-War Assembly in Porto Alegre, Brazil, building on its previous conferences attended by thousands of antiglobalization activists from around the globe. Among the issues to be addressed are coordinating actions across borders, determining which tactics to use, finding
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Brief Analysis
Resistance Strategy in the Trans-Election Period (Part II):
Opportunities, Effects, and Implications
The Sunni insurgents in Iraq aim to establish the resistance as the primary political and military expression of the Sunni Arab community. The upcoming elections give them an opportunity to inflict a substantial defeat on the Iraqi government and the United States. Unlike November’s Falluja battle, the insurgents are fighting
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Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
No Grace Period for Newly Elected Abbas
The newly announced ceasefire provides an opportunity for progress in Israeli-Palestinian relations, especially with the newly elected Palestinian leadership and the new Israeli coalition government. The time has come for both Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas (a.k.a. Abu Mazen) to roll up their sleeves
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Michael Herzog
Brief Analysis
Hizballah in Turkey Revives:
Al-Qaeda’s Bridge between Europe and Iraq?
On January 12, Turkish police arrested Mehmet Semih Arikan, a member of Hizballah in Turkey, a group not necessarily part and parcel with Lebanese Hizballah, while he was carrying out a reconnaissance mission near the governor's office of Konya province, ten minutes ahead of a scheduled visit by Gen. Fevzi
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Soner Cagaptay
Emrullah Uslu
Brief Analysis
Bush's Inaugural Address:
Reactions from the Arab and Iranian Press
In his inaugural address on January 20, President George W. Bush declared that "it is the policy of the United States to seek and support the growth of democratic movements and institutions in every nation and culture, with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world." What follows is
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Brief Analysis
Resistance Strategy in the Trans-Election Period (Part I):
Concepts, Operations, and Capabilities
The approach of the January 30 elections in Iraq has focused attention on Sunni resistance activity aimed at disrupting the electoral process. Yet, the increasingly well-organized and more capable Sunni insurgent elements are implementing a broad strategy aimed at establishing themselves as the dominant military and political force in the
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Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Elections:
What, How, and Who
Iraq’s elections are ready to go forward, but conditions are “far from ideal” in Kofi Annan’s words, due to the growing insurgency, disagreements within the Shiite community, and the logistical difficulties of Iraq’s first ever-free elections. The soon-to-be-elected Transitional National Assembly will play a vital role in Iraq’s transitional process
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Articles & Testimony
Arabs and the Holocaust
Of the more than 100 countries that have formally endorsed today's convening of the special U.N. General Assembly on the 60th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz, not one is Arab. In the West, this is viewed as another manifestation of Holocaust denial, an increasingly commonplace feature of Arab politics
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
A Strategy for Mahmoud Abbas
For Palestinians, the January 9 elections represented a mechanism both for filling the void left by the death of Yassir Arafat and for adopting a path to a different future. Mahmoud Abbas, better known as Abu Mazen, won a decisive victory, nearly two-thirds of the vote, despite calls by Hamas
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Reliant Mermaid Naval Exercise:
Increasing the Peacetime Role of Navies
Last week, between January 9 and 13, surface units from the American, Turkish, and Israeli navies conducted Reliant Mermaid, a biannual humanitarian assistance exercise in the eastern Mediterranean. At the same time, a massive and real humanitarian assistance operation is being conducted mainly by the U.S. Navy to rush aid
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Orhan Babaoglu
Articles & Testimony
Blood, Smoke and Tears in Beirut
BEIRUT -- When we first felt the blast, my girlfriend and I were walking down Hamra Street in West Beirut toward the American University. Tara had flown in from New York City just a few hours earlier on Monday, and I was showing her around the city for the first
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Andrew Exum
In-Depth Reports
The Missing Peace
The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace
The most candid inside account of the peace process ever written, as told by Washington's point man on the negotiations during the Bush and Clinton administrations.
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Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Iraq:
Outlook for National Elections and Governance
Iraq’s political transition accelerated in 2004 and will experience even more significant advances during 2005. The Iraqi elections represent the next major milestone in the transition, and the winners will fundamentally define Iraq’s future political system. Yet Iraq’s lack of experience with representative government makes forecasts of electoral outcomes difficult
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Brief Analysis
Improving Turkish-Russian Relations:
Turkey’s New Foreign Policy and Its Implications for the United States
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan finished his three-day visit to Moscow today. This trip follows Russian president Vladimir Putin's December 2004 Turkey trip, the first by a Russian head of state since Russia and the Ottoman Empire established relations in the fifteenth century -- excluding a 1972 sojourn by
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Right Course on Iran
Susan E. Rice ["We Need a Real Iran Policy," op-ed, Dec. 30] derides as "bizarre" President Bush's statement that "we're relying upon others" to take the leadership role in stopping Iran's nuclear program. She dismisses out of hand the Bush administration's acceptance of European leadership on this issue, claiming that
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
Abbas' Voice Resonates with Palestinians
In his campaign speeches, Mahmoud Abbas repeatedly emphasized issues that would have been alien to his predecessor and longtime mentor, Yasser Arafat. He focused, for instance, on restoring rule of law and ending the fouda -- or chaos -- that has engulfed Palestinian life. He opposed corruption and vowed to
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
The Bush Administration and the Middle East:
Agenda for 2005
As the Bush administration prepares for the next four years, there are clear indications that there will be a greater focus on domestic policy issues -- such as Social Security -- during the president's second term in office. But the transformation of the Middle East is among the four broad
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Brief Analysis
Is the PKK Still a Threat to the United States and Turkey?
On December 31, 2004, terrorists belonging to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a group on the U.S. State Department's Foreign Terror Organizations (FTO) list, ambushed Turkish security officers in the Sirnak province in southeastern Turkey, near the Iraqi border. Although the PKK declared a unilateral ceasefire after Turkey captured its
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Soner Cagaptay
Emrullah Uslu
Brief Analysis
In Mahmoud Abbas's Own Words
Interim Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas is widely expected to win the presidential elections scheduled for January 9. The media has focused on statements he has made on the campaign trail; below is a survey of his statements on a variety of policy issues over the past several years. Overall Political
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