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Brief Analysis
The Latest Challenge from al-Sadr (Part I):
Background and Context
The fractious and dangerous Iraqi Shi'i cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is once again attempting to foment a rebellion. In scenes virtually identical to those of his April-May 2004 uprising, his militia is in the streets, Shi'is are demonstrating en masse, and he is alternately talking peace and vowing to fight to
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Jeffrey White
Articles & Testimony
Inside the Zarqawi Network
At least 13 Iraqis were killed in fighting with U.S. soldiers in the Iraqi city of Falluja on July 30, part of the ongoing U.S. offensive against fighters loyal to Abu Musab al Zarqawi, the man Bush administration officials claim is the most dangerous terrorist in Iraq today. Critics, however
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Jonathan Schanzer
Brief Analysis
The Threat of Jewish Terror in Israel and the West Bank
In 1995, Jewish extremist Yigal Amir caught Israeli society off guard when he assassinated Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in an effort to derail the Labor government's pursuit of a peace accord with the Palestinian Authority (PA). Today, Israeli society is coming to terms with a similarly acute Jewish extremist threat
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
The 9-11 Commission Report:
The Middle East Dimension
The 9-11 Commission has received much media attention for its findings on the al-Qaeda threat. The commission's documents detail information on Middle Eastern states and terrorist groups. Below is a summary of some of the report's findings on the roles key regional actors played in the growth, setbacks, and evolution
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Brief Analysis
Arafat Survives for Now, Amid Divided Fatah Opposition
With Palestinian Authority (PA) Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei (a.k.a. Abu Ala) rescinding his recent resignation without gaining any meaningful control over disparate security forces, PA Chairman Yasir Arafat can claim to have won the latest round in the power struggle taking place inside the West Bank and Gaza. Arafat's success
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David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
The Hand of Bandar?
As everyone knows, Saudis, if not Saudi Arabia, were central to the horrific events of September 11, 2001. Fifteen out of 19 hijackers were Saudi, plus the Saudi-born Osama bin Laden, (from whom the kingdom withdrew citizenship in the 1990s). What is perhaps surprising therefore is that Saudi Arabia is
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Lessons from the Front Line in the Battle for 'Hearts and Minds':
My Two Years in Morocco
Morocco is a nation of nearly 30 million people, part Arab, part Berber, and overwhelmingly Muslim, yet distant enough from Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian arena so that those issues, while relevant, are not all-consuming. Hence, it provides an excellent vantage point from which to assess the ideological battle between radical
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Lessons of Oslo's Failure Must Be Learned for Peace to Bloom
Nobody spent more time with Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat during the years of the Oslo peace process than I did. Why didn't I see that he was incapable of ending the conflict with Israel? Certainly there were those who claimed he could not be trusted and would never make
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Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Sadrist Revolt Provides Lessons for Counterinsurgency in Iraq
The first serious challenge to Coalition forces in Iraq from Shiite elements began on 4 April 2004. Moqtada al-Sadr's organisation and its militia, the Mahdi Army, initiated demonstrations and attacks on Coalition forces and facilities in Baghdad's Sadr City and across southern Iraq. Coinciding with the siege of Falluja and
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Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
The al-Qaeda Challenge to Saudi Arabia
As a result of the 2001 U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, the al-Qaeda network now consists of small, local, and autonomous affiliate groups that attack domestic and Western targets alike. Ties between affiliate groups and the former al-Qaeda core is largely informal. For example, recent attacks have been claimed by affiliates
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Jonathan Schanzer
Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Palestinian Fragmentation:
Case Study of Jenin and Nablus
One of the most serious implications of four years of incessant violence and terrorism is the fragmentation of Palestinian society. Notwithstanding the debate over the impact of the Israeli presence in the territories, Palestinian quality of life cannot improve without radical reform in the structure of the Palestinian Authority (PA)
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Brief Analysis
The Democratic Party's Platform and the Middle East
The 2004 Democratic Party platform, "Strong at Home, Respected in the World," which will be formally adopted today at the party's convention in Boston, reflects the prominence of foreign policy in this year's election. Indeed, nearly half the document is devoted to strengthening American security policy after September 11 and
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Ben Fishman
Brief Analysis
Egypt's New Cabinet:
Will New Faces Generate Change?
For the seventh time since President Hosni Mubarak took office twenty-three years ago, a new Egyptian cabinet has been sworn in. The ceremony took place on July 14, 2004, with the aim of addressing the tremendous challenges posed by a deteriorating economy and by growing internal and external pressure for
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Brief Analysis
Genocide in Sudan?
Rwanda Revisited? More than a decade after the genocide in Rwanda, international attention has once again shifted to the specter of tragedy in Africa, this time in the Darfur region of western Sudan. For more than a year, government-backed Janjaweed militias have been responsible for thousands of acts of murder
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Brief Analysis
Assessing the Current Challenge to Arafat
Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat is facing a serious challenge to his authority, perhaps the most serious since he arrived in the territories from Tunis a decade ago this month. Yesterday, the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) voted by a 43-4 margin to accept the resignation of Prime Minister Ahmed
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David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
Fixing Turkish-Israeli Relations
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's May 20 demarche calling Israeli acts in Rafah "state terrorism" signals that the iceberg awaiting the crash of Turkish-Israeli relations has now surfaced. Jerusalem needs to act immediately to avoid a fallout with Ankara. Turkish-Israeli relations face a potential crisis. On the Turkish side
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Lessons from the Sunni Triangle
The Mission of the 82nd Airborne Division in Iraq Like all U.S. forces in Iraq, the 82nd Airborne Division was worked hard in 2003-2004. Beginning in February 2003, the division's headquarters were split between Afghanistan and Iraq. From February 2003 to April 2004, at least two maneuver brigades from the
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Brief Analysis
The Broader Threat from Sunni Islamists in the Gulf
On July 14, 2004, Bahraini security forces arrested seven suspected terrorists accused of planning "to carry out bombings on some government, economic, and tourist facilities to spread chaos and fear and harm the national economy and foreign investments." The arrests targeted a group of Sunni radicals of the extremist Salafi
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Fence Gives Israel Chance for Peace
Israel has rejected last week's ruling of the International Court of Justice. The court issued a nonbinding advisory opinion Friday that Israel's barrier is an impediment to peace. However, given the violence of the last four years between Israelis and Palestinians and the distrust that violence has engendered, the barrier
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David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
Kurds on the Way to Turkey:
How Israel Can Prevent a Crisis in Its Relations with Ankara
(translated from Hebrew) Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's May 20 demarche calling Israeli acts in Rafah "state terrorism" signals that Jerusalem needs to act immediately to avoid fallout with Ankara. Today, the Turkish-Israeli relationship faces a potential crisis. On the Turkish side, the readiness of the public to accept
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Soner Cagaptay
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