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Brief Analysis
Prospects of Israeli Disengagement:
A Status Report
There is no doubt that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is absolutely determined to carry out disengagement despite the political problems within his own party. The demographic issue of ensuring a long-term Jewish democratic majority in Israel and the associated political pressure has fueled his determination to proceed with disengagement. Sharon
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Dennis Ross
Wendy Sherman
Brief Analysis
Unilaterally Constructed Barriers in Contested Areas
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague is expected to issue an advisory opinion this Friday, July 9, on the international legality of Israel's security fence. Although advisory opinions are often sought from the ICJ before an international body has made up its mind on an issue, the
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Implications of U.S. Dependence on Middle East Oil
Reasons for Concern The subject of energy and oil dependence should be at the top of the U.S. national security agenda. There are several reasons for concern. First, the world demand for oil is growing rapidly. Chinese and Indian development alone will push oil consumption up in the near future
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Brief Analysis
Israel's Security Fence:
Effective in Reducing Suicide Attacks from the Northern West Bank
The International Court of Justice is expected to rule this Friday, July 9, on the legality of Israel's security fence. The Palestinians strongly oppose the security fence, claiming that the fence negatively affects them. Israel is now seeking to address their concerns through a variety of means relating to the
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Brief Analysis
Reflections on Tin-Cupping for the Iraq War
A Different Iraq Although the United States had been engaged in a similar reconstruction effort in Iraq not more than twelve years before the recent war in that country, the Iraq of 2003 was fundamentally different from the Iraq of 1991, which meant that the reconstruction effort this time around
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Dov Zakheim
Articles & Testimony
Egypt's New Role
While the world remains riveted on Iraq, Egypt has signaled a new -- even unprecedented -- readiness to play an intensive leading role in ending the Israeli-Palestinian war. In Egyptian eyes, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's intention to withdraw from the Gaza Strip has created an opening, and Egypt is
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Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Saudi Arabia Faces Long-Term Insecurity
A string of terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia sent oil prices to a 21-year high in early June and prompted speculation about the future stability of the Al-Saud regime. Yet, the near-term terrorist threat presents a relatively minor risk compared to the longer-term possibility of state failure....
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
In Search of 'Righteous Arabs'
The North African chapter of the Holocaust is largely unknown; many would prefer to leave it that way.... The full text of this article is available to registered users of the Commentary Digital Archive.
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Allied Forces
With the U.S. having transferred sovereignty to Iraqis earlier this week, the Kurds find themselves in a more precarious position than at any time in the last year. On June 8, the U.N. Security Council accepted a new resolution dictating the guidelines for post-U.S. Iraq. The resolution did not mention
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Middle East Weapons Proliferation:
Lessons from Iraq and Beyond
New Lessons Regarding Proliferation The culmination of Operation Iraqi Freedom has given rise to much debate concerning the exact nature of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs. Similarly, ongoing negotiations with Iran regarding its nuclear activities have also been dogged by imprecise intelligence and unclear strategies. Both of these
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Incident in the Shatt al-Arab Waterway:
Iran's Border Sensitivities
After several days of diplomatic tension between London and Tehran, eight British military personnel who had been captured by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were released and flown out of Iran on June 24. The men, who served with the coalition forces in Iraq, had been in three boats
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Mounting Humanitarian Catastrophe in Sudan:
Implications for U.S. Policy
Secretary of State Colin Powell will visit Sudan on Tuesday, June 29, stopping first in Khartoum before visiting the war-torn western province of Darfur. Powell will be the first U.S. secretary of state to visit Sudan since Cyrus Vance in 1978. In addition to meetings with Sudanese officials, Powell will
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Brief Analysis
The PKK's New Offensive:
Implications for Turkey, Iraqi Kurds, and the United States
On June 1, 2004, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) -- an organization that appears on the State Department's list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations and whose attacks caused more than 30,000 deaths in Turkey during the 1980s and 1990s -- declared that it had rescinded its unilateral "ceasefire" of February 2000
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Implications of a Nuclear Iran
Testimony before the House Committee on International Relations, Subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia The emergence of a nuclear Iran could alter the balance of power in the Middle East, leading to a heightened risk of conflict, and possibly nuclear war. This raises several questions: How close is
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Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
Yemen's War on Terror
Yemen has emerged of late as one of the more fertile locations for Al Qaeda activity. Al Qaeda's Yemeni affiliate, the Islamic Army of Aden-Abyan (IAA), has executed a number of spectacular attacks against Western interests in recent years. It was responsible for the 1998 kidnapping of sixteen Western tourists
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Jonathan Schanzer
Brief Analysis
Istanbul NATO Summit:
Bridging Brussels and Baghdad?
Will the Transatlantic Split Be Mended? NATO's Istanbul summit, to be held on June 28-29, will be historic, marking the first such meeting in which the organization's seven new Eastern European members will participate. In fact, with these additions, NATO now borders Russia. Despite the organization's enlargement, however, a transatlantic
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Philip Gordon
Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Why Americans Die in Riyadh
Three Americans murdered in Saudi capital, Riyadh, in just two weeks. Two of them beheaded, gruesomely hacked off with a knife rather than severed with an axe. There can be few surer ways of attracting the attention of the American public. But then the leader of the gang of Islamic
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Assessing Hizballah's West Bank Foothold
When the IDF withdrew from southern Lebanon in May 2000, Hizballah realized that it had to change direction somewhat, primarily because it had lost its avowed justification (and any hint of international legitimacy) for carrying out attacks from Lebanon. Accordingly, Shaykh Hassan Nasrallah, the group's secretary-general, instantly changed his rhetoric
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Sovereignty Now
There have been several positive developments in Iraq in the past several weeks: An interim government was formed and the largely discredited Iraqi Governing Council was disbanded. The U.N. Security Council unanimously embraced the new Iraqi government and declared that it should be sovereign even on security matters. After months
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
European Union Elections:
Implications for Middle East Policy
On June 10-13, elections were held throughout Europe for the European Parliament (EP), the institution that represents the peoples of the twenty-five member states of the European Union (EU). The results indicated a mixture of uninterest (as evidenced by low voter turnout) and a pattern of electorates punishing their incumbent
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Simon Henderson
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