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Brief Analysis
Crisis in Iraq:
Assessments and Implications (Part I)
On April 16, 2004, Jeffrey White and Michael Knights addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum, along with Michael Eisenstadt. Mr. White, an associate of the Institute, previously headed the Defense Intelligence Agency's Regional Military Assessments Group and Office for Middle East-Africa Regional Military Assessments. Dr. Knights, the Institute's Mendelow
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Jeffrey White
Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Violence:
Shi'i-Sunni Collision or Collusion?
On April 5, Iraqi gunmen attacking U.S. forces in Baghdad's predominantly Sunni al-Azamiya neighborhood were joined by members of radical Shi'i cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's militia, Jaysh al-Mahdi (Mahdi Army). Soon thereafter, posters of al-Sadr, along with graffiti praising the cleric's "valiant uprising" appeared in the Sunni-dominated city of Ramadi. On
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Jonathan Schanzer
Brief Analysis
The Multinational Divisions in Iraq:
Lessons Learned
Madrid's determination to withdraw Spanish troops from Iraq, combined with the collapse of some multinational forces during recent fighting, poses serious questions about the contribution that such forces can make to security during the period leading up to the June 30 transfer of power. Background The performance of the two
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
U.S. Should Choose Time, Place to Confront Radical Cleric
Since the beginning of Muqtada al-Sadr's uprising this month, the U.S. military has been uncompromising in its determination to bring the Iraqi Shiite cleric to justice. Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt, deputy head of U.S. military operations in Iraq, is on record as threatening, "We will hunt him down and destroy
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Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
The Revolt of Muqtada al-Sadr:
Characteristics and Implications
The challenge posed by Muqtada al-Sadr in the past several weeks remains unresolved, and its consequences are likely to be felt for some time to come. Al-Sadr's actions since March 28 present a complex challenge, one with both military and political implications. Eliminating al-Sadr and his organization as a political
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Jeffrey White
Articles & Testimony
It Is Not Too Late to Engage the Palestinians
Once again, the Bush administration must prepare for the "day after". This time the preparations apply not only to Iraq, but to the Israelis and Palestinians, as Israel has declared its determination to withdraw from Gaza and part of the West Bank and George W. Bush has endorsed the disengagement
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Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Sharon-Bush Plan Isn't the Last Word
In diplomacy, there are times when process and substance take on equal importance. Ideas that might be acceptable, or at least tolerable, if presented one way become wholly unacceptable when presented another way. That may help explain some of the backlash against President Bush's announcement Wednesday that the U.S. would
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Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
An Education 'Carrot' for Syria
In the days ahead, the Bush administration is expected to impose sanctions on Syria for supporting Palestinian terrorist groups, occupying Lebanon, and developing weapons of mass destruction. While sanctions will apply pressure to the Syrian regime, they could also have the unintended effect of domestically bolstering it. To prevent this
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Brief Analysis
The Bush-Sharon Correspondence (Part II):
Did the Bush Administration Prejudge Final Status?
Media reportage on yesterday's meeting between President George W. Bush and Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon has focused on Bush's letter to Sharon as a political windfall for the latter. Some analysts suggest that in his letter Bush prejudged the outcome of an eventual final-status deal between Israel and the
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
The Bush-Sharon Correspondence (Part I):
Analyzing the Text
The exchange of letters that occurred yesterday between President George W. Bush and Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon marked an important watershed in the diplomatic history of the Middle East peace process. The short-term impact of the correspondence will be felt in domestic Israeli politics, as Sharon tries to parlay
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Bush and Blair:
Friends Indeed
Tomorrow's meeting in Washington, D.C., between President George W. Bush and visiting British prime minister Tony Blair was scheduled before the recent outbreaks of violence in Iraq and before Wednesday's announcement of U.S. support for Israel's plan to unilaterally withdraw from Gaza. But both subjects will top the agenda of
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Liquidating Yassin:
Implications for Israel, the Palestinians, and U.S. Middle East Policy
Israelis and Palestinians are locked in a stalemate that is worsening over time. The withdrawal initiative by Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon creates an opportunity to transform the situation, but the direction of that transformation remains an unanswered question. Many Palestinians view an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and an evacuation
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Dennis Ross
Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
The Battle for Falluja and Sunni Resistance
The battle for Falluja, in which U.S. forces have been fighting to break Sunni resistance elements in that city, has been one of the most sustained fights of the Iraq war and subsequent occupation. Significantly, Sunni insurgents are not only fighting in Falluja, but also across the Sunni heartland. Militarily
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Jeffrey White
Articles & Testimony
Sharon Has Big Stake in Gaza Plan
This week, President George W. Bush is scheduled to hold summit meetings with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. The heart of both meetings will likely contain discussions surrounding Sharon's plan for Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and from a symbolic four settlements in the West Bank
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Lessons of the Iraq War and Its Aftermath
The 101st Airborne's Experience in Iraq The 101st Airborne Division returned to the United States in February after spending most of the previous year stationed throughout Iraq's four northernmost provinces. Although the division was engaged in daily combat with insurgent forces in its mission to provide security, it was also
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David Petraeus
Articles & Testimony
Split Shift
It's not often that William Safire and Al Jazeera agree but, in the last week, both have drawn explicit comparisons between the anti-Western anger rolling through central and southern Iraq and the relative calm of the Kurdish north. In Iraqi Kurdistan, Safire wrote Wednesday, "we can see success: Rival Kurdish
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Setting Realistic Expectations for Iraq's Security Forces
Faced with both the Muqtada al-Sadr uprising and intense fighting in Ramadi and Fallujah, Washington announced that it will hold the number of U.S. forces in Iraq at the current level of 134,000 by delaying plans to withdraw some troops during the current rotation. The announcement is a recognition that
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Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
The Gaza Withdrawal:
Implications for Israel and the Region
In mid-April, President George W. Bush will be holding summit meetings with Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon. The heart of both meetings will likely contain discussions surrounding Sharon's plan for Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and from a symbolic four settlements in the West Bank. Advantages—and
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David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
Charismatic Preacher and a Crucial Battle of Wills
The next few days will be crucial. Yesterday saw the first armed confrontations between coalition forces and the gunmen who support the young Shia Muslim firebrand, Moqtada al-Sadr. Today the Americans are hitting back with Apache helicopters. The action is across the whole of the Shia south, the area that
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
The Israeli Exodus from Gaza:
A Moment of Truth for the International Community
Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon arrives in Washington on April 14 to present President George W. Bush with his plan for "unilateral disengagement" from the Gaza Strip. Details of the plan still need to be nailed down, while the fate of Sharon (facing the possibility of bribery charges) and that
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Michael Eisenstadt
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