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11364
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Brief Analysis
Iran:
Demonstrations, Despair, and Danger
In the early morning hours of June 11, according to Reuters, 3,000 demonstrators near Tehran University shouted, "Political prisoners must be freed!" This incident comes shortly after the issuance of two letters sharply attacking the present system -- one signed by more than one-third of the Majlis and one by
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Patterns of Sunni Resistance in Iraq
Almost from the beginning of the occupation of Iraq, coalition forces have faced "resistance" -- armed action against coalition forces, equipment, or facilities. Resistance is to be distinguished from violence by Iraqis against other Iraqis and from "opposition" -- that is, anticoalition statements, demonstrations, or the organization of political activity
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Jeffrey White
Articles & Testimony
Smeared in Blood, Hezbollah Fingerprints All Over Globe
The UN operates by consensus, a major counterterrorism handicap given that several of its members are proactive state sponsors of terrorism. Hezbollah poses a threat to Australia and threatens others with support of members in Australia. The Australian initiative to ban Hezbollah, despite the group's absence from the UN Security
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Terrorism As a Strategic Threat to Israel
Many Israelis and Palestinians once again have a sense of hope, following President George W. Bush's meeting with Arab leaders at Sharm al-Shaykh and with Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Authority (PA) prime minister Mahmoud Abbas (known as Abu Mazen) in Aqaba. This new hope in both societies
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Articles & Testimony
Blood Money
Even as President Bush invests his considerable personal prestige and the power of his office in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking, his initiative is threatened by the continued flow of financial and logistical support for Hamas terror attacks through the group's social-welfare infrastructure. The first phase of the road map requires the Palestinian
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Reading between the Lines of the Sharm al-Shaykh Summit
At yesterday's Sharm al-Shaykh summit, President George W. Bush persisted in his post-September 11 campaign to transform the Middle Eastern landscape, an effort that includes not only promoting Israeli-Palestinian peace but transforming intra-Arab politics as well. A close reading of the carefully crafted statements by Bush and his Egyptian host
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Lurking in Lebanon
Prime Minister Rafik Hariri of Lebanon announced on Sunday that Lebanese authorities will not enter a Palestinian refugee camp where al Qaeda operatives are known to be, even at the height of the war on terror. Asbat al-Ansar (League of Partisans) was tied to a foiled assassination plot against the
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Jonathan Schanzer
Articles & Testimony
This Is a Big Mideast Day for Bush
President George W. Bush travels to two scenic Red Sea resorts this week. Today, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, he meets a group of Arab rulers. Tomorrow, in Aqaba, Jordan, he will see the prime ministers of Israel and the Palestinian Authority. If you focus on Aqaba instead of Sharm, you
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Directions at the Crossroads
If there was ever a moment to end the ongoing war between Israelis and Palestinians and return to the path of peace making, this is it. In Israel, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has established a new baseline for the Likud Party, speaking of the need to end the occupation of
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Between Hudna and Crackdown:
Assessing the Record of Hamas Ceasefires
In recent days, both Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat and prime minister Mahmoud Abbas have said they expect an agreement on a Hamas ceasefire (or hudna) to be announced soon. According to Abbas, Hamas—in Arabic, "the Islamic Resistance Movement"—"will commit to halting terrorism, both within the green line and
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Brief Analysis
Beyond Summit Pageantry:
Requirements for Bush's Middle East Success
President George W. Bush will be holding three summits next week that will have a strong Middle East orientation. A G-8 summit will followed by a meeting with Arab leaders in Sharm al-Shaykh, Egypt, and a summit of Israeli and Palestinian leaders in Aqaba, Jordan, representing a new phase in
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Iraq and Iran:
Crosswinds?
A. WILLIAM SAMII Although there are various players with different agendas in Iran's foreign policy bureaucracy, all those with real power agree on the unattractiveness of the situation in Iraq. Hence, Tehran has become increasingly involved in postwar Iraq. In addition to providing humanitarian assistance to Iraqis, Iran has been
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Articles & Testimony
Heart of the Axis
The National Security Council is scheduled to hold a "senior level meeting" Thursday to formulate administration policy toward Iran. Electronic intercepts indicating senior al Qaeda operatives in Iran were behind the Riyadh bombings suddenly sparked official "concern" regarding the hospitality master terrorists enjoy with the compliments of their Iranian Revolutionary
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Iranian Nuclear Weapons (Part III):
How Might Iran Retaliate?
A U.S. or "coalition" strike against Iran's nuclear program would be an exercise in high-stakes compellence. Although the physical results of such a strike (e.g., amount of damage inflicted; number of years by which the Iranian nuclear program would be set back) are uncertain, the consequences for U.S.-Iranian relations are
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Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
Iranian Nuclear Weapons (Part II):
Operational Challenges
Counterproliferation strikes on nuclear sites are uncommon but by no means unprecedented. Germany's embryonic nuclear program was attacked during World War II, Iraq's Osiraq nuclear plant was bombed by Iran in 1980 and by Israel in 1981, and Iran's Bushehr reactor site was attacked by Iraq throughout 1984-1988. During the
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Intensify the Hunt
The bomb attacks in Riyadh and Casablanca, the warnings in East Africa and Europe and the heightened threat level at home are sober indications that al-Qaida still has global reach despite the U.S.-led campaign in Afghanistan and the war on terrorism. This should not come as a shock. Al-Qaida continues
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Jonathan Schanzer
Articles & Testimony
Road Map Torn by Ambiguity
There is something intellectually dishonest about a "peace process" that tacitly promises mutually exclusive demands to the Israelis and Palestinians by papering over their differences until they inevitably collide. In the parlance of diplomacy, this is called "creative ambiguity." It formed the basis of the failed Oslo accords in the
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Brief Analysis
From Acceptance to Implementation:
Next Steps for the Roadmap
Israel's cautious approval of the Roadmap opens a new phase in Middle East peacemaking. Although media focus will now turn to the next episode of high-level engagement by President George W. Bush—perhaps at a Jordan- or Egypt-hosted regional summit in early June—the real test for Washington and its Quartet colleagues
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Iranian Nuclear Weapons (Part I):
The Challenges of U.S. Preventive Action
Having just fought a war to rid Iraq of weapons of mass destruction, and alarmed by fresh signs of dramatic progress by Tehran in the nuclear arena, the United States is pressing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to declare Iran in violation of its commitments under the Treaty on
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
U.S.-Saudi Counterterrorism Cooperation in the Wake of the Riyadh Bombing
The recent bombings in Riyadh and Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah's remarks condemning them have raised expectations that U.S.-Saudi counterterrorism cooperation will improve so that such tragedies can be averted in the future. What internal dynamic will guide the Saudis' handling of this crisis? What sort of counterterrorism cooperation are they
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Simon Henderson
Matthew Levitt
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