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Articles & Testimony
The 'Cycle of Violence' Fallacy
The Arab-Israeli conflict is often framed as a "cycle of violence." A strong Israeli policy against Palestinian terrorism will only spawn more attacks against Israel, goes the logic. Conversely, if only Israel made unilateral concessions to the Palestinians, it would find a partner for peace. This is the conventional wisdom
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Articles & Testimony
A Terrorist U.S. Ally?
One of the stranger news items coming out of Iraq these days concerns an Iranian opposition group called the Mujahedeen-e Khalq (MEK). It's a U.S. government-designated terrorist organization that coalition forces first bombed from the air, then signed a cease-fire agreement with -- and finally disarmed and protected. Say that
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Role of Broadcast Media in Influence Operations in Iraq
Successfully shaping Iraqi public perceptions is vitally important, particularly since other well-known means of influencing the public -- creating stability and reestablishing water, power, and other public welfare services -- are taking longer than expected. Yet, the coalition has arguably been slower to shape the Iraqi media environment than either
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Don't Treat the 'Road Map' As Gospel, and Tread Cautiously
After last week's synchronized terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia and the management shake-up of the U.S. occupation team in Iraq, Americans were reminded that victory over Saddam Hussein did not miraculously compel the region's lions to lie down with its lambs. If dealing with these and other challenges were not
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Polling in Iran:
Surprising Questions
The difficulties facing Iranians who want to express their opinions freely in print are legion. In an atmosphere where journalists and pollsters are often detained without trial, it is easy to assume that pollsters do not ask important questions and that respondents do not give serious answers. Yet, some very
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Brief Analysis
An Arab Liberal Looks at the Post-Saddam Middle East
The fall of Saddam Husayn's regime is a seminal moment in the Middle East. President George W. Bush has called for democratization in the region, and the predicted results vary widely, ranging from Arab radicalization to Islamist militancy to rapid political and economic liberalization. Although liberalism is a minority voice
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Brief Analysis
Terror from Damascus (Part II):
Hizballah and al-Qaeda Terrorist Activity in Syria
Secretary of State Colin Powell's recent talks in Damascus focused not only on Syrian sponsorship of Palestinian terrorist groups, but also on Syria's increasingly intimate ties with and support for Hizballah. Yet, Syrian support for terrorist groups of global reach does not end with Hizballah. Recently revealed intelligence on al-Qaeda
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Mideast Peace, One Day at a Time
In the last week the prospects for peace between Israelis and Palestinians appeared to be improving. The Palestinians approved Mahmoud Abbas as their first-ever prime minister, and he declared that terrorism threatened to destroy the Palestinian cause -- language one never heard from Yasir Arafat. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Terror from Damascus (Part I):
The Palestinian Terrorist Presence in Syria
Syrian sponsorship of terrorism topped the agenda of Secretary of State Colin Powell's recent trip to Damascus, and his visit was quickly followed by conflicting reports regarding the status of various terrorist headquarters there. The coming weeks will determine whether the Damascus offices of Hizballah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Implementing the Roadmap:
Assessing the Prospective Monitoring Mechanism
With last week's formal unveiling of the Roadmap, the Arab-Israeli peace process has moved into a new phase that is its most internationalized in a quarter century. The establishment of the Roadmap's all-important "verification mechanism"—the structure of which has largely been worked out among the Quartet's U.S., European Union (EU)
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Hizballah on the Defensive
Nervous about recent Middle East developments and major threats looming in the future, Hizballah is taking defensive steps inside Lebanon and stepping up its rhetoric against the United States. Hizballah's Nightmare In almost all of his speeches, Hizballah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah has spoken about the pride that his organization brought
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Brief Analysis
Hamas Blood Money:
Mixing Good Works and Terror is No Formula for Peace
Within hours of Mahmoud Abbas's (Abu Mazen) confirmation as the new Palestinian prime minister and the presentation of the Quartet's roadmap to peace, two suicide bombers struck a seaside bar next to the U.S. embassy in Tel Aviv, killing three civilians and wounding sixty more. As is frequently the case
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Palestinian Prime Minister Will Go Nowhere If He Attempts a Solo Act
For the first time in Palestinian history, there is a Palestinian prime minister. Though the timing of the appointment can be attributed to the Bush administration's determination not to deal with Yasser Arafat and the pressure of the international community, the idea of having a prime minister came from Palestinian
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Hizballah's Message of Hate and Powell's Levant Visit
As Secretary of State Colin Powell prepares to visit Syria and Lebanon on May 3, his agenda will most likely address the war on terrorism. The most active support for terrorism from both Damascus and Beirut is for Hizballah. To understand what the group's aims and ambitions are, few sources
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Avi Jorisch
Brief Analysis
Assessing Mahmoud Abbas's PLC Address:
Many Messages, Many Audiences
Addressing the Palestinian Legislative Council Tuesday, new Palestinian Authority (PA) prime minister Mahmoud Abbas outlined a bold program of domestic reform and commitment to diplomacy that balanced loyalty to Yasir Arafat with an evident desire for fundamental political change. The speech's most positive aspects were Abbas's affirmation of negotiations as
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Challenges Facing Abu Mazen's Government
Mahmoud Abbas—better known as Abu Mazen—represents a moderate course of thinking in Palestinian politics and a marked departure from the policy of intransigence and duplicity that has characterized Yasir Arafat's tainted regime. Specifically, he has challenged the premise of emphasizing national unity before national responsibility; in other words, turning a
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Dennis Ross
David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
Confronting Syrian Support for Terrorist Groups
After the unveiling of an American backed Israeli-Palestinian plan known as the road map earlier this month, US Secretary of State Colin Powell embarked on a trip to the Middle East. Significantly, however, he did not stop in Israel or the West Bank on this trip, but went straight to
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Patterns of Terrorism 2002:
Terror, Counterterror, and State Sponsorship
Today, the State Department releases the 2002 edition of Patterns of Global Terrorism, its congressionally mandated annual accounting of international terrorism. The report chronicles a year marked by both devastating terrorist attacks and remarkable progress targeting al-Qaeda in the war on terror. However, against the backdrop of the increasingly successful
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Mideast Roadmap Leads to a Dead End
The United States is on the verge of embarking on a diplomatic campaign to implement an Israeli-Palestinian "roadmap" toward peace that risks sapping the political gains of victory in Iraq to advance a plan that has stunningly little chance of success. The basic idea of the roadmap, written jointly by
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Impact of Success in Iraq on Gulf States
The end of Saddam Husayn's regime offers several key benefits with regard to U.S. interests. World oil supplies will increase as Iraq -- which has not been a major oil exporter since the beginning of the 1980-1988 war with Iran -- raises its oil production capacity to its full potential
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Simon Henderson
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