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Brief Analysis
Iran As Part of the Axis of Evil (Part II):
U.S. Policy Concerns
On January 31, following President George Bush's State of the Union condemnation of the "axis of evil," National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice explained, "Iran's direct support of regional and global terrorism, and its aggressive efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction, belie any good intentions it displayed in the days
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran As Part of the Axis of Evil (Part I):
Reforms Stagnate
In his January 29 State of the Union address, President George Bush criticized Iran as one of three states (the other two being Iraq and North Korea) forming an 'axis of evil' and castigated its "unelected leaders" for denying the will of the majority. Indeed, the perennial conflict between Tehran's
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Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
President Bush and the Middle East, One Year On
In the wake of the Cold War, certain regions of the world (e.g., Western Europe, Northeast Asia, the Western hemisphere) are both important to the United States and, for the moment, relatively stable. Several other regions (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa, former Soviet Central Asia) are unstable but not as important. The
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Michael Mandelbaum
Articles & Testimony
How to Free Iraq
On September 11, the world changed -- or at least some of it did. Iraq did not. While the rest of the world mourned, or at least nominally condemned the terrorist attack, Iraqi president Saddam Husayn gloated. It is no surprise that Saddam would revel in the suffering of Americans
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A Year of Terror
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America and the Middle East:
Expanding Threat, Broadening Response
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Brief Analysis
Religion and Politics in Alexandria
On January 20-21, an interfaith summit of Muslim, Christian, and Israeli Jewish leaders convened in Alexandria, Egypt, after several years of effort and planning. The meeting did not draw much attention in the Egyptian or Palestinian media -- only in the Israeli media -- but it deserves attention, if not
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Brief Analysis
The <em>Karine-A</em> Affair:
A Strategic Watershed in the Middle East?
The Palestinian defense budget spending—relative to national income—is higher than that of any Arab country or Iran. This calculation is based on official data that exclude an important part of a state's defense budget—namely, procurement of weapons. The Oslo agreements prohibit the Palestinian Authority (PA) from procuring arms, yet they
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Articles & Testimony
U.S. Should Get Ready to Break Ties with Arafat
Yasser Arafat sits in Ramallah a virtual prisoner. The master of the half measure is now paying the price for failing to make a strategic choice for peace. A year ago he could not say yes to the Clinton ideas -- ideas that would have given the Palestinians an independent
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
The Future of the Multinational Force and Observers in Sinai
Growing U.S. military involvement in new locations such as Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and the Philippines has raised concerns in the Pentagon about overstretching the military and has prompted a call to reassess the future of America's long-standing contribution to peacekeeping missions worldwide. One of the missions at risk of being curtailed
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Brief Analysis
After the Ecevit Visit:
Can Turks Pull Together to Complete the Necessary Reforms?
The visit of Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit to the United States last week was a political and public relations success for his administration, but a few questions remain: Can the Turks continue to implement the economic reforms required by the International Monetary Fund, or will there be slippage when the
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Brief Analysis
Syria and the War on Terrorism (Part II):
Challenges for U.S. Policy
With its longstanding support for terrorism, both pre- and post-September 11, Syria poses a unique challenge to U.S. antiterror strategy. Unlike Iran -- whose leaders orchestrate public chants of "Death to America, death to Israel" and thereby provide rhetorical context to their sponsorship of terrorism -- Damascus proclaims its desire
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Syria and the War on Terrorism (Part I):
A Post–September 11 Assessment
As the Bush administration surveys options for the next phases in the war on terrorism, scant attention has been focused on Syria -- despite the fact that Dr. Bashar al-Asad's regime has been among the world's most active supporters of terrorism, even after September 11. Background Syria is a charter
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Nuclear Arms Inspections in Iraq
Since September 11, there has been increased concern about terrorists using weapons of mass destruction (WMD). It is thus natural to return to the issue of Iraq, a country that has used chemical agents against Iran and its own citizens. Indeed, Iraq violated the Non-Proliferation Treaty before 1990 and, prior
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Brief Analysis
<em>Karine-A:</em>
The Strategic Implications of Iranian-Palestinian Collusion
Revelations of Iranian-Palestinian collusion to smuggle fifty tons of weapons into the hands of Yasir Arafat's Palestinian Authority (PA) through the offices of Hizballah have profound strategic implications for the Middle East. For the Bush administration, responding appropriately to the Karine-A episode may have unpleasant repercussions for relations with key
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Ecevit to Washington:
Opportunities for U.S.-Turkish Relations
Visits by Turkish prime ministers to Washington have tended in years past to be low-profile events. With imagination and boldness on the American side, the January 16 meeting between President George W. Bush and Turkish prime minister Bulent Ecevit has the potential to be a watershed in a relationship that
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Mark Parris
Brief Analysis
The Seizure of Gaza-Bound Arms (Part II):
Military Implications
Alongside the diplomatic efforts to reach a ceasefire with Israel, the Palestinian Authority (PA) has been involved—since the beginning of the second intifada—in the indigenous production of weapons and ammunition and in repeated attempts to smuggle arms on a massive scale into the territories under its control. To thwart these
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Brief Analysis
The Seizure of Gaza-Bound Arms (Part I):
Political Implications
Israeli naval commandos seized the Gaza-bound freighter Karine-A in the Red Sea last Thursday, exposing a cargo hold containing fifty tons of munitions. The seizure took place in international waters some 300 miles off of Israel's southern coast, between Sudan and Saudi Arabia. The ship's captain, Omar Akkawi, later participated
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Assessing the $959 Million in Accelerated Economic Aid to Egypt
In a brief January 3 statement, the White House announced that Egypt is receiving $959 million in accelerated economic aid, the bulk of which was evidently disbursed in the closing days of 2001. While an important sign of continued U.S. support for the Hosni Mubarak government, this sudden and massive
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Hamas Ceasefire:
Historical Background, Future Foretold?
The arrival of U.S. envoy General Anthony Zinni in Jerusalem today comes during a relative lull in the terrorism and violence that has characterized the Israeli-Palestinian scene since the eruption of the al-Aqsa intifada in September 2000. This lull is at least partly due to the December 21 decision of
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Seth Wikas
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