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11364
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Brief Analysis
Lebanon:
Between Hong Kong and Hanoi
The behind-the-scenes conflict between liberal and illiberal forces within Lebanon's political structure is spilling into public view.
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Yossi Baidatz
Brief Analysis
Israel's New Sharon Government
The formation of a national unity government in Israel today, by a vote 72 to 21, is a triumph for Ariel Sharon. First, he seized the initiative. After his landslide victory a few weeks ago, Sharon did not engage in classic Israeli bargaining tactics in dealing with his Labor Party
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Khatami in Moscow Boosts Russian-Iranian Arms Cooperation
Iranian president Mohammed Khatami will conduct an official visit to Russia on March 11 through March 15. This constitutes the highest-level visit of an Iranian official to Russia since 1989. There could be an intensification of cooperation between Russia and Iran during Khatami's visit — including on arms sales. In
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Brenda Shaffer
Brief Analysis
Step Up U.S. Involvement in Turkish Economic Crisis
Turkey's economic near-meltdown last week — its second financial crisis in three months — was precipitated by political problems, not by narrowly economic issues. Until the political problems are addressed, the prospects for any new economic package will be questionable. With Turkish leaders and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) both
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Alan Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
Russian Arms and Technology Transfers to Iran:
Policy Challenges for the United States
In the past decade, Russia has become Iran's main source of advanced conventional arms, an alleged supplier of know-how and technology for its ballistic missile and chemical and biological warfare programs, and its sole source of civilian nuclear technology. Despite sustained U.S. efforts to halt these transfers, they continue, raising
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Assessing Powell's Trip to Israel and the Palestinian Territories
While the main purpose of Secretary of State Colin Powell's first foray into the Middle East was to discuss Iraq, he also visited Israel and the Palestinian Authority and injected a dose of what some would call "evenhandedness" — giving each both something to be pleased about and something to
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Intifada 2000, The Foggy Bottom Version:
A Review of the Human Rights Report
Five months after the outbreak of the Palestinian uprising, the U.S. government yesterday issued its first systematic assessment of the intifada-related actions of Israelis and Palestinians in the form of the State Department's Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for the year 2000. A close reading of the twenty-four page
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Arab Gulf Politics and Powell's Visit
As Secretary of State Colin Powell and former President George Bush celebrate the tenth anniversary of the liberation of Kuwait, for many Gulf Arabs the occasion marks a decade since Saddam Husayn's tanks put the lie to the promises of security that local leaders had made to their people. After
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
The GCC Militaries since Desert Storm:
An Assessment
When Secretary of State Colin Powell and former President George Bush touch down in Kuwait on Sunday, celebrations scheduled to commemorate the expulsion of Saddam Husayn’s forces ten years ago will also—albeit less explicitly—recognize the more robust state of Gulf militaries. A decade after Operation Desert Storm, each of the
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Brief Analysis
Powell to the Middle East:
Assessing the Key Elements of Iraq Policy
On February 26, U.S. secretary of state Colin Powell begins his tour of Iraq's Arab neighbors just as UN secretary-general Kofi Annan is scheduled to hold discussions with Iraqi foreign minister Mohammad Said al-Sahhaf in New York. Key themes in these meetings will be the return of UN weapons inspectors
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Arab Reactions to Sharon's Victory in the Israeli Election
Arab reactions to Ariel Sharon's overwhelming victory in the recent Israeli national election were mixed. Some condemned him with a confrontational tone, while some suggested that the election made no difference — that is, that all Israeli leaders have basically the same stance. Several Arab leaders opted to take a
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Articles & Testimony
Avoiding the Mideast:
Never a Real Option
There is a growing belief in some foreign policy circles that four months of violence and Ariel Sharon's landslide victory in Israel last week are further proof that former president Bill Clinton's proposals for a Middle East peace failed miserably, and that the Bush administration should absolve itself of the
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Inside Palestinian Politics:
Preparing for Israel under Sharon
As Ariel Sharon prepares to take power following his landslide victory, significant changes are also underway in the Palestinian Authority (PA). In anticipation of Sharon's victory, the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and leading PA personalities have been preparing a new political agenda to deal with the apparent end of "final
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David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Sharon's Victory:
Implications for the Peace Process and U.S. Policy
Meaning of the ElectionThe Israeli people spoke in the most dramatic and convincing fashion. Viewed in the U.S. context, Ariel Sharon won a larger share of the vote 62.5 percent than any presidential candidate in history. Essentially, Israel voted to express one word: "enough!" enough violence, enough concessions, enough perception
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Despite Pan Am Verdict, Libya Is Still a Threat
After 12 years of legal and political maneuverings, a Scottish tribunal convicted a Libyan intelligence agent of mass murder. The unexpected verdict has not only brought a measure of justice to the families of Pan Am Flight 103, but also has made Libya the first national security challenge for the
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Ray Takeyh
Articles & Testimony
No Feelings of Guilt or Remorse for Lockerbie
More than twelve years after Pan Am 103 exploded over Lockerbie, Scotland, the striking point about the most expensive and elaborate trial in British legal history is its complete irrelevance, despite the conviction of a Libyan intelligence agent. Libya had negotiated such advantageous legal procedures that, regardless of the verdict
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Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
The 'al-Aqsa Intifada' and the Prospects for a Wider Arab-Israeli War
Palestinian officials have threatened an intensification of violence, should -- as is expected -- Ariel Sharon be elected prime minister of Israel tomorrow. The Palestinian leadership that "rewarded" Prime Minister Ehud Barak's diplomatic flexibility with the "al-Aqsa Intifada" thus seems poised to "punish" the Israeli public for electing Sharon with
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Behind a Looming Sharon Victory
The deadline has now passed for Ehud Barak to step aside in favor of rival Shimon Peres in Israel's prime ministerial face-off next Tuesday, February 6, against Likud leader MK Ariel Sharon. Analysts have already written off this election for Barak, as Sharon's lead in the polls has barely budged
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David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
Sanctions on Iraq:
Curtains for the Ba'ath
. . . The shortcomings of containment go beyond questions of sustainability, or the risks of complacency. Containment requires an onerous forward U.S. military presence in the region that is clearly counterproductive politically for the United States. And to the degree that sanctions contribute to a sense of Arab/Muslim grievance
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Scattered Pieces, Shattered Peace
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