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Brief Analysis
Imagining a Likud Foreign Policy
Regional TrendsFebruary marks ten years since the end of the Gulf War. The situation in the Middle East today is vastly more dangerous than in 1991. The favorable regional conditions in 1991 that allowed the current peace process to begin have been reversed. Three key trends are the following: After
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Dore Gold
Brief Analysis
Iraq’s Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD):
An Emerging Challenge for the Bush Administration
Iraq and its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) are emerging as one of the first major foreign policy challenges of the Bush administration. Free of weapons monitors and with sanctions eroding, Iraq has resumed its aggressive policies. After the start of the al-Aqsa Intifada last September, it briefly moved elements
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Bahrain’s National Charter and Political Reform in the Gulf
Bahraini Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Issa al-Khalifa announced January 23 that a national referendum will be held February 14-15 on a National Charter, under which the lower house of a national assembly would be elected in 2004. Sheikh Hamads reformist moves are the latest example of a trend in the
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Brief Analysis
Syria’s Foreign Policy Challenges U.S. Interests
This is the second of a two-part series marking the six months since Bashar al-Asad became president of Syria on July 17, 2000. Read Part I. For a region used to the late Hafiz al-Asad’s stodgy predictability, his son Bashar’s six-month-old presidency has displayed a surprisingly active foreign policy, including
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Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Syria under Bashar al-Asad:
The Domestic Scene and the 'Chinese Model' of Reform
This is the first of a two-part series marking the six months since Bashar al-Asad became president of Syria on July 17, 2000. Read Part II. On January 11, a petition signed by a thousand Syrian intellectuals appeared in the Lebanese press demanding -- inter alia -- freedom of expression
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Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
The Gulf Cooperation Council Defense Pact:
An Exercise in Ambiguity
January 17 marks the tenth anniversary of the start of Operation Desert Storm in the Middle East, when U.S.-led forces began the liberation of Kuwait. In that operation, the militaries of the Gulf monarchies played a minor role. At their meeting in Bahrain at the end of December, the leaders
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Racing against the Clock
The formative years of Ehud Barak's career in the military were as a phenomenal soldier and as the head of Israel's sayeret matkal, the country's elite commando force. With a reputation as strong as it is secret, the sayeret is often obliquely called by its nickname, simply ha'yehida — "the
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
What Has Impeded Progress in U.S.-Iran Relations?
After much experimentation, the Clinton administration settled on a policy of incremental normalization with Iran, whereby the United States and Iran would gradually improve their relations through mutual concessions and confidence-building measures. As the Bush team assesses policy options towards Iran, it is important to note the meager results of
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Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
Time Running Out on Clinton Proposals
Meetings this week between Israeli and Palestinian security and political personnel notwithstanding, time has virtually run out for any Israeli–Palestinian peace deal. It is important to note that the issue is not just one of time, even though President Clinton leaves office next Saturday. Top Clinton Administration officials have made
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Brief Analysis
Can Iraq Reconstitute the Arab Eastern Front against Israel?
While President Bill Clinton is laying out his plans for peace in the Middle East, others are talking about their readiness for war. Iraqi dictator Saddam Husayn’s defiant January 6 Army Day speech supporting the Palestinian revolt followed on the December 31 four-hour "Al Aqsa Call" military parade in Baghdad
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Inside Clinton’s Peace Proposals:
A Textual Analysis
While the White House has made no comment on the substance of President Bill Clinton’s proposal for Israeli-Palestinian peace, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz and the Palestinian Jerusalem Media and Communication Center (JMCC) have published what they say are respectively the Israeli and Palestinian minutes of the president’s December 23 oral
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
From Bilateralism to Internationalization:
Security Implications of the U.S. Bridging Proposals
With President Clinton due to meet Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat today for a last-ditch diplomatic effort, attention is focused mainly on two aspects of the U.S. bridging proposals: the division of Jerusalem and the future status of Palestinian refugees. In contrast, little attention has so far been devoted to the
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Robert Satloff
In-Depth Reports
Into the Shadows:
Radical Vigilantes in Khatami's Iran
Hardline vigilante groups, generally referred to as "pressure groups" (guruh-i fishar) in popular Iranian parlance, have long influenced Iranian politics and society during times of political tension. But particularly since President Muhammad Khatami’s 1997 election—as the power struggle between the Islamic Republic’s reformist and hardline camps has accelerated—vigilantes have become
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In-Depth Reports
Navigating through Turbulence:
America and the Middle East in a New Century
The Presidential Study Group -- a bipartisan, blue-ribbon commission of statesmen, diplomats, legislators, scholars, and experts -- was convened in Spring 2000 to examine the state of the Middle East and the effectiveness of U.S. policy in advancing U.S. interests in that important region. George W. Bush takes office at
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Brief Analysis
Russia Resurgent?
Moscow and the Middle East
On December 18, 2000, Eugene Rumer, author of Dangerous Drift: Russia's Middle East Policy (The Washington Institute, 2000), and Shlomo Avineri, director of the Institute for European Studies at Hebrew University, addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks. EUGENE RUMER The
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Brief Analysis
From Sheba’a to al-Quds:
The Evolution of Hizballah
Rather than exploiting the Israeli withdrawal from the "security zone" in May 2000 to focus on internal Lebanese politics, Hizballah is maintaining its military strategy against Israel at the risk of triggering a full-scale war.
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Yossi Baidatz
Brief Analysis
Assessing Barak’s Election Gambit
Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak’s surprise resignation Saturday night has plunged the country’s already battered political system into further turmoil, and so far, his gambit seems to have failed. Barak’s move was clearly designed, at least in part, to utilize a provision in Israeli law that would sideline his once
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
The ‘al-Jazeera Effect’:
Arab Satellite Television and Public Opinion
Public opinion in the West has been deeply influenced by television news pictures for several decadesin the 1960s, Vietnam was the first "television war." But in the Arab world, the violence between Palestinians and Israelis that erupted at the end of September has been the first cycle of Arab-Israeli fighting
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
The Separation Option:
An Alternative to the Peace Process?
Recently, public opinion in both Israel and the Palestinian territories has shifted in ways that argue for separation or disengagement. Israelis no longer accept the notion that negotiations will eventually lead to peace, but they are far more willing to make concessions to the Palestinians. Palestinians no longer expect a
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Articles & Testimony
Israel and Palestine:
What's Gone Wrong?
An exchange between Ahmad Samih Khalidi, Palestinian writer and peace negotiator, and David Makovsky, senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former editor of the Jerusalem Post. AHMAD SAMIH KHALIDI 6th November 2000 Dear David, Surveying the wreckage of the Oslo agreement, I am struck
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David Makovsky
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