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Brief Analysis
Israeli Elections and the Peace Process
Israeli prime minister Ehud Baraks decision yesterday to preempt his opponents and announce his willingness to hold early elections must be seen in the context of his interest in reviving the peace process. The vote for early balloting was driven by both animus toward the failed Camp David summit and
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Egyptian Elections:
Rumblings of Change, But NDP Dominance Maintained
What changed, and what didn't, in Egypt's parliamentary elections?
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Amy Hawthorne
Brief Analysis
A Lockerbie Trial Brief
The Lockerbie trial’s adjournment for much of the past two months did not curtail speculation on new evidence and sources. During the period of adjournment both the prosecution and defense carried out investigations throughout European capitals and unidentified third countries. After all this intrigue, it does appear that Lockerbie trial
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Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
Iran’s ‘War on Drugs’:
Potential for U.S.-Iranian Cooperation?
Iran faces serious drug problems. It has 1.3 to 2 million addicts, and it is a principal transit point for drug smuggling from Afghanistan to the West. President Mohammed Khatami has criticized the West for its "meager help in the anti-drug campaign." However, before the United States decides whether or
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Brief Analysis
A UN 'Protection' Force for Palestinians:
Background and Implications
In recent weeks, Arab parties from the Palestinian Authority (PA) to the Arab League summit have called for the dispatch of a United Nations force to the West Bank and Gaza in order to protect Palestinian civilians from Israeli military force. Rather than reject this idea because of its contribution
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Israeli Security Strategy:
Facing Multiple Fronts
A Combustible Middle East Recently, four factors have combined to make the situation in the Middle East far more combustible than it is has been for a long time. These elements are: Iraq has managed to break out of the boundaries imposed by the UN sanctions regime and to evade
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Articles & Testimony
An Arab Debate on 'Child Sacrifice'
Palestinian children are dying under Israeli gunfire. No doubt they are martyrs but to what, Israeli brutality or Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat's cynicism? Increasingly, Western observers, and now, for the first time, Arab ones too, are concluding that the Palestinian Authority is pursuing a policy that intentionally places children
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David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Saad ed-Din Ibrahim on Trial:
Background and Implications
The trial of prominent Egyptian democracy activist Dr. Saad ed-Din Ibrahim and twenty-seven of his associates is scheduled to open on November 18 in Cairo. The charges include illegally accepting foreign funds and harming Egypt’s reputation abroad. This trial will be closely watched as a litmus test of the Egyptian
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Brief Analysis
Turkish-Israeli Ties in the Context of Israeli-Arab Tension
As Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak prepares for his upcoming trip to Washington, the United States is not the only strategic partner whose ties with Israel may be tested by violence in the West Bank and Gaza. In an era when Turkeys defeat of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) and
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Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Non-Lethal Weapons, 'Excessive Force,' and the al-Aqsa Intifada
Since the beginning of the Al-Aqsa Intifada, accusations that Israel has used "excessive force" in dealing with Palestinians have led to calls for Israel to employ "non-lethal" weapons as a way to reduce Palestinian casualties and stem the cycle of violence between the two sides. In fact, however, Israel is
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Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
Dealing with Arafat:
Mideast Needs a Soft Landing
When Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat meets with President Clinton tomorrow, his message will be, "The Oslo accords are dead long live the Arab-Israeli peace process!" For Clinton, the priority should be to reject a new form of "peace process" that could make a bad situation even worse. That Oslo is
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Between Baghdad and Washington:
Jordan’s Balancing Act
On Saturday, November 4, Jordanian prime minister Ali Abu Raghib returned from a three-day visit to Baghdad. Coming just one week after the signing of the U.S.-Jordanian Free Trade Agreement (FTA) — the first of its kind with an Arab state — the trip highlights Jordan’s policy of pursuing close
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David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Arafat's Strategy:
Impose an Intifada, Spillover to the Arab World
A New Intifada? The events of the past five weeks are not a repeat of the Palestinian Intifada of 1987–1990, a spontaneous uprising that caught both Chairman Yasir Arafat and Israel equally by surprise. Rather, the current uprising is a confrontation imposed by Arafat on the Palestinian street. Three major
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Ehud Yaari
Brief Analysis
Arab and Iranian Views on the U.S. Presidential Elections
"It is clear that whoever wins the race to the White House is going to put even less pressure on Israel than Bill Clinton [has done]. Al Gore, because with Joseph Lieberman as his vice-president, there will be an emotional commitment to it. George Bush Jr., because there will be
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Brief Analysis
The Israeli-Lebanese Border Dispute and Resolution 425:
Recent Declarations by the United States and the United Nations
"The Arab leaders affirm that just, comprehensive peace will not be achieved except with . . . the restoration of all the occupied Arab territories, including full Israeli withdrawal from . . . southern Lebanon to the internationally recognized borders, including Shebaa farms, the release of Arab prisoners in Israeli
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Brief Analysis
Between Terrorism and Truce:
Developments in Middle East Violence
Bombing and Truce The truce reached today should be interpreted very cautiously, given both today’s terror bombing in Jerusalem, which killed two Israeli civilians, and the two previous failed ceasefires recently brokered by the United States in Paris and Sharm el-Sheikh, respectively. Palestinian Authority (PA) leader Yasir Arafat was due
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David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
Washington Concerns about Saudi Oil
Saudi decision-makers would be well advised to examine what lies behind the deep U.S. concern about oil prices. America is more worried about a politically-motivated crisis than about the usual market manipulation, writes Patrick Clawson, director for research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The smaller part of
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
New Paradigms in Arab Politics and the Peace Process
Background to the Current Violence There are five "macro" factors that explain the collapse of the Oslo process as we have known it: 1) the complementarity of violence and diplomacy in Palestinian strategy; 2) the U.S.-Israeli-Palestinian collusion on sidestepping any serious focus on compliance with past agreements before pursuing new
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Terrorism against the USS <em>Cole</em> and the Context in Yemen
Yemen embarked on a dramatic evolution after the 1990 merger of two remote, distinctly different, and conflict-ridden regimes (the former South Yemen and North Yemen). Unity has held, and Yemen is becoming more moderate and integrated into its region. However, a decade later the transition is incomplete. For the first
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Articles & Testimony
Gadhafi's Failed African Ambitions
While the international media focus on the Israeli-Palestinian fighting in the West Bank and Gaza, at least 600 Africans have been killed in riots in Libya. The massacre of African immigrants may have wider reverberations and foster important changes in Libya's foreign policy. Since his return to the international stage
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Ray Takeyh
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