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11364
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Brief Analysis
The Iraqi Opposition and U.S. Policy:
An Update
The INC has so far proven its capability in undermining the viability of the existing regime, namely by seizing fourteen provinces from Saddam Husayn's grasp, infiltrating the intelligence apparatus, making and maintaining contact with the highest members of the ruling cadre and military branch, and opening offices in the region
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Articles & Testimony
In the Middle East, Money and Bear Hugs Only Go So Far
When Mideast peace talks convene at Camp David on Tuesday, President Clinton will need to bring more to the table--from members of Congress to carrots, from senators to sticks--than he has so far brought to Arab-Israeli peacemaking. With "Camp David II," the United States begins a journey into unknown Mideast
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Containing Iran:
The Necessity of U.S. Sanctions
Sanctions on Iran have made an important contribution to U.S. security by depriving the Iranian government of the revenue it could otherwise have used for a military build-up. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, Iran announced agreements with various suppliers to purchase many more weapons than it actually acquired
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The West's Next Test:
The Verdict of the Thirteen Jews
On July 1, Satiq Nurani, judge and prosecutor for thirteen Iranian Jews accused of espionage, reportedly will announce his verdict. The case, troubling for both procedural reasons and the dubious nature of the charges, has for more than a year been an obstacle in Iran’s relations with the West. The
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Brief Analysis
Domestic Politics and State Interests in Syria and Israel
Syria’s old power structure is giving way, and new faces are emerging. Bashar al-Asad is well on his way to becoming president. A new generation has also begun to take positions of power in the Ba‘th party hierarchy, the military, the cabinet, and the security organs. Although the old guard
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Arafat's Resistance to a Summit
U.S. secretary of state Madeleine Albright completed her round of talks with both Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) today, failing to announce the immediate convening of a U.S. summit. At the end of her discussions, she said she would report to U.S. president Bill Clinton on Thursday, and that
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
An Islamist Internationale?
Transnational Links among Islamist Radical Groups
The Islamist Agenda The Israeli-Palestinian dispute is no longer the main issue on the Islamist agenda. The fall of the Soviet Union in 1990 and the development of national and Muslim-Christian disputes in various parts of Europe and central Asia assisted in the globalization of the Islamist struggle. In addition
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Brief Analysis
Who Rules Syria?
Bashar al-Asad and the Alawi 'Barons'
The orderly transfer of power following the death of President Hafiz al-Asad, in accordance with Syria’s constitutional succession mechanism, has highlighted the role of the formal power structures of the Syrian state: the presidency, cabinet, National Assembly, and, above all, the Ba’th party. It has, however, obscured the crucial role
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
The Israeli Arabs and Lebanon:
A New Phase?
The sudden death of Syrian president Hafiz al-Asad on June 10 added confusion and uncertainty to the relations among Syria, Israel, and Lebanon--relations that were already in flux after Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon. One unexpected result may be increased politicization of the Israeli Arabs in northern Israel. Northern Israel and
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Articles & Testimony
Tea (and Prejudice) with the Taliban
Afghanistan rolls out the carpet for a Jewish visitor, but it is importing a virulent strain of anti-Semitism along with radical Islam. I drank tea with Habibullah Fouzi, first secretary at the Afghan Embassy in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, one of only three countries that recognize the fanatic Islamic
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Brief Analysis
A New Asad—A New Syria?
Hafiz al-Asad was a cautious and calculating leader, but he had not completed the steps to guarantee a smooth succession to his son Bashar by the time of his death. Nevertheless, Bashar al-Asad will probably become Syria’s next president. There are no significant or immediate threats to his accession. Some
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Back to the Palestinian Track:
Prospects for the Clinton-Arafat Meeting
Palestinian Authority (PA) president Yasir Arafat meets President Bill Clinton today strengthened by the death of Syria’s Hafiz al-Asad, whose funeral Arafat attended Tuesday. An Arafat buoyed and more confident by the death of his longtime nemesis adds a new wrinkle to an already complex game of brinkmanship that constitutes
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David Schenker
Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Can Bashar al-Asad Hold On in Syria?
Syrian president Hafiz al-Asad had a knack for bad timing. He delayed for years making his son Bashar his formal successor, wanting to get everything just right--and then he died a week before everything was to fall into place to make Bashar the anointed one. It seems very likely Bashar
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Brief Analysis
Saudi Family Council Suggests Transition Is Imminent
The surprise announcement on June 4 of the establishment and first meeting of a Saudi royal family council indicates that the kingdom is preparing itself for a shift in full authority from the ailing King Fahd to his deputy, Crown Prince Abdullah. The change should bring to an end the
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Defection of a Terror Suspect:
Window into Iranian State Terrorism?
An Iranian asylum seeker in Turkey claims to be Ahmad Beladi-Behbahani, a high-ranking intelligence official in Iran. If true, this is quite a coup, because Behbahani is one of the most important figures in the Iranian terror apparatus, and his revelations could re-ignite debate about a U.S. response to Iran-backed
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Brief Analysis
East vs. West:
King Abdullah and the Future of Jordan's Economic Orientation
Tonight, Jordan's King Abdullah arrives in Washington for a two-day visit that will include discussions with President Bill Clinton and appointments with chief executive officers of top U.S. technology firms. In a departure from the usual emphasis with the peace process, this visit will focus on Jordanian domestic issues, specifically
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David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
Can the United States Influence the WMD Policies of Iraq and Iran?
Iraq and Iran are likely to pose some of the most difficult long-term proliferation challenges for the United States in the coming years. Both countries remain actively committed to developing weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in spite of obstacles created by export controls and sanctions, and even though they are
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Brief Analysis
Hizballah in Lebanon:
What Next?
Having driven the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and its proxy South Lebanon Army (SLA) out of Lebanon, Hizballah faces the momentous decision of what to do next. As the most capable guerrilla group operating in Lebanon, Hizballah’s decision will have profound effects on the security environment not only on the
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Articles & Testimony
U.S. Diplomatic Action Needed in Lebanon
Without U.S. diplomatic intervention, the most likely outcome of last week's Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon is that some radical group — acting under Syrian and Iranian pressure — will launch cross-border attacks on Israel. This could lead Israel to respond with intense artillery fire and air strikes, possibly against Syrian
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Lockerbie Trial, Round One
The much-anticipated trial of two Libyans accused of downing Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, has now been in session for two weeks. In this brief period, important developments have already taken place both inside and outside the courtroom. Although prior to the trial, there was much speculation on
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Ray Takeyh
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