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Brief Analysis
Palestinian Track:
Getting Down to Business
With Israeli-Palestinian peace talks getting underway in Eilat this weekend, the Middle East seems to be switching peace tracks yet again. After President Bill Clinton held separate White House meetings with Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat earlier this month, State Department spokesman James
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Tightening World Oil Markets Increase Political Risk
A robust world economy is driving up oil consumption, while supply is growing slowly. The global safety margin, from oil stocks and excess capacity, is shrinking. By later this year, world oil markets could be in a rather delicate balance--a balance vulnerable to a political shock, such as might be
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The State Department's 1999 Terrorism Report:
Issues to Watch
On April 29, the U.S. Department of State will issue Patterns of Global Terrorism 1999, its comprehensive annual survey describing events, trends, and developments in international terrorism during 1999. Because it is based on open source material already available to the informed public, the significance of the report lies more
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David Schenker
Brief Analysis
The Israel-Lebanon Border:
A Primer
On April 16, Israel officially notified the United Nations (UN) that southern Lebanon would be evacuated in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 425, adding further weight to the March 5, 2000, announcement by the Israeli cabinet that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) would "redeploy on the border with
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Frederic Hof
Brief Analysis
Iran's Hardliners Fight Back
Iran's hardliners, who suffered a resounding drubbing in February's first-round Majlis (parliament) elections, have been resurgent in defeat and now appear to have the momentum in their ongoing power struggle with reformist politicians and institutions. In their latest move, Iran's hardline-dominated judiciary ordered the immediate closure of twelve reformist newspapers
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Brief Analysis
Palestinian Holocaust Denial
Hamas (the Islamic Resistance Movement) has recently published a denial of the Jewish Holocaust on its official website. Although Hamas often uses anti-Jewish phrases, this was the first time the organization has officially denied the Holocaust. Background In the 1940s in many parts of the Arab world, there was a
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Brief Analysis
Who Made the Middle East the Way It Is Today?
Local actors, not the Western imperialist powers, were the dominant players in the development of the modern Middle East. The clash between nationalism and imperialism drove events that shaped the region, and the local actors could be found on both sides of that clash: they were as eager imperialists as
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Brief Analysis
Qadhafi at the European-African Summit:
Is He Moderating His Stand?
Mercurial Libyan leader Mu'ammar Qadhafi continues to disappoint those who hope for moderation. His April 3 speech at the Africa-European Union (EU) summit, much heralded as a sign of where Libya is headed, was old-fashioned bombast. Although much may have changed in the international community, Qadhafi's commitment to "anti-imperialism" and
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Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
Palestinian Participation in the Islamist Global Network
On Monday, April 17, the trial of twenty-eight Islamists charged with the intention to bomb American and Israeli targets during millennium celebrations will begin in Jordan. The list of the arrestees as published in the Jordanian dailies al-Ra'i and al-Dustur indicates that at least nineteen are of Palestinian origin, including
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Brief Analysis
Who Will Control the Shore and Waters of the Galilee?
Press reporting out of the Middle East in the wake of the failed Geneva summit between Presidents Bill Clinton and Hafiz al-Asad suggests that the territorial dispute between Damascus and Jerusalem has widened and that issues pertaining to the ownership of the Sea of Galilee (also known as the Kinneret
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Frederic Hof
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Khatami's Next Test:
The Trial of Thirteen Jews
On April 13, thirteen Iranian Jews are scheduled to come to trial in Shiraz to face espionage charges that carry the death penalty. The trial, more than a year after the thirteen were originally detained, comes at a critical time for Iran--less than two months after Iranian president Muhammad Khatami's
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Brief Analysis
Turkey's Presidential Jitters
Leaders of Turkey's governing coalition meet tomorrow seeking agreement on a presidential candidate who can muster a parliamentary majority and replace Suleyman Demirel when his term expires May 16. Mainly at stake for Turkey in the upcoming presidential selection process is the survivability and effectiveness of the Ecevit government and
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Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
An Israeli Withdrawal from Lebanon:
Implications for the Middle East and U.S. Policy
On April 5, 2000, The Washington Institute released a new report, The Last Arab-Israeli Battlefield? Implications of an Israeli Withdrawal from Lebanon, and hosted its seven contributing authors at a Special Policy Forum. The contributors include Nicole Brackman, Patrick Clawson, Michael Eisenstadt, Steven Hecker, John Hillen, Frederic Hof, and Gal
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Brief Analysis
The Taliban and Terrorism:
Report from Afghanistan
Since their rise to power in 1994 and their capture of Kabul two years later, the Taliban have based their legitimacy on the promise of both stability and an end to the war. At the time, people enthusiastically saw a force who disarmed bandits and brought order. Many also hoped
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Brief Analysis
The Oil Market, the Middle East, and Saudi Policy
Recently, Nawaf Obaid, author of The Washington Institute's recent book The Oil Kingdom at 100: Petroleum Policy Making in Saudi Arabia, and Edward Morse, executive adviser at the Hess Energy Trading Company, addressed the Institute's Special Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur’s summary of their remarks. EDWARD MORSE The
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Brief Analysis
Crossing Between Two Tracks:
Barak, Syria, and the Palestinians
The withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) from southern Lebanon announced by Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak looms large. Set for July 7, this withdrawal is closely linked to the Syrian track of negotiations. It will end the fifteen-year status quo of the security zone, with Israel planning to
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David Makovsky
In-Depth Reports
The Last Arab-Israeli Battlefield?
Implications of an Israeli Withdrawal from Lebanon
An Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon would mark a major change in the status quo that has prevailed in the Middle East for the last twenty years. This will create both risks and opportunities for the peoples of the region and for U.S. policy. What happens after an Israeli withdrawal is
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Patrick Clawson
Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Egypt-U.S. Relations and Egyptian Foreign Policy
Despite the existence of a two-decade old strategic alliance between Egypt and the United States, political elites in both countries are profoundly skeptical of the goals and intentions of the other side. In Egypt, there are doubts about the legitimacy of U.S. behavior in the world, about the even-handedness of
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Brief Analysis
The Clinton-Asad Agenda:
Make Peace . . . But Prevent War, Too
President Clinton's trip to Geneva on Sunday to meet Syrian leader Hafiz al-Asad begins the last leg of the administration's eight-year marathon effort to broker an elusive Syrian-Israeli peace agreement. The stakes, however, are higher than just Clinton's peacemaking legacy. While most observers believe that Syria and Israel are just
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
A Mighty Arsenal:
Egypt's Military Build-Up, 1979–1999
Military aid will likely be a topic of discussion between Presidents Hosni Mubarak and Bill Clinton when the Egyptian leader visits Washington this week. Since Egypt and Israel signed a peace treaty in 1979, Cairo has received $35 billion in military and economic assistance from the United States. Cairo has
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