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Brief Analysis
Advancing U.S. Interests and Better Relations with Iran
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's March 17 speech to the Conference on American-Iranian Relations was a milestone in the slowly improving bilateral ties. Although a number of useful ideas were broached, on balance the speech missed a golden opportunity to make common cause with reformist supporters of Iranian president Muhammad
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Vatican and the Middle East:
Pope John Paul II's Trip to the Holy Land
MARSHALL BREGER Background Historically the Vatican's view of Israel and Zionism was negative. The Vatican explicitly told Herzl that that the Jews were meant to wander, and if they set foot on Palestinian soil the Christians would be there to convert them. The main concern of the Catholic Church regarding
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Brief Analysis
The Turkish-Israeli-Syrian Triangle
ALAN MAKOVSKY The emergence of close Israeli-Turkish relations is one of the significant strategic developments in the post-Cold War Middle East. These ties are likely to flourish as long as Israel and Turkey remain pro-Western, anti-Islamic fundamentalist, and compatible in military inventory. Turkish-Israeli ties should be described as a "strategic
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Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Qadhafi's New Political Order
On March 1, Libyan leader Col. Muammar Qadhafi announced the most sweeping changes in Libya's political structure since the launching of the Jamahiriyya (state of masses) in 1977. In a surprising move, the colonel dismissed his prime minister and foreign minister while abolishing twelve other ministries altogether. Qadhafi insisted that
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Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program:
Status and Implications
Iran is pursuing a strategy of flexible acquisition, keeping multiple options open. It wants to take advantage of any opportunities to obtain required materials out of the former Soviet Union. At the same time, it aims to develop a nuclear infrastructure over the long term, pursuing the whole process of
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Israel's Strategy for Security and Peace
The Palestinian Track The recent delay in talks between the Israelis and Palestinians is the result of an unnecessary crisis initiated by Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat. The motivation behind this tactic is the idea that you can squeeze more out of the Israelis through crisis than you can
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Brief Analysis
Exceeding Expectations:
Bahrain One Year after Succession
March 6 marks the one-year anniversary of the succession of Shaykh Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa in Bahrain following the death of his father, Shaykh Isa Bin Salman al-Khalifa, who had ruled the Persian Gulf nation since independence in 1971. A Strategic Ally. Bahrain is an important ally in America's drive
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Articles & Testimony
Arab-Israeli Diplomacy in 2000:
An Uphill Battle for Peace
To many observers, the stars are aligned to see the final resolution of the century-old Arab–Israeli conflict in the millennium year of 2000. But in a region which too often accents romance over realism, more sober analysts will underscore the wide gaps which still divide the parties, the national and
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
A Look at Sanctioning Iraq
The U.N. economic sanctions on Iraq, now more than nine years old, continue to elicit strong objections from those who view them as unjust. Only two weeks ago, Hans von Sponeck, the U.N. humanitarian coordinator for Iraq, resigned. The sanctions, he said, create a "true human tragedy that needs to
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
'Red Lines' in the Israeli-Syrian and Israeli-Palestinian Tracks
In the negotiations between Israel and both Syria and the Palestinians, each side has red lines--points on which it cannot concede. No agreement will be possible that crosses the red line of either side. Not all red lines are the same. In particular, Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) have
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Zeev Schiff
Brief Analysis
Let Iran Change on Its Own
The parliamentary elections in Iran produced a massive pro-reform vote. The obvious question is what can the United States expect and how should it respond. Paradoxically, the answers are, expect little change soon on the issues of most concern, and do little so as not to be counterproductive. Background. The
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran's Majlis Elections:
Prospects and Implications
On February 18, Iran will hold the first round of voting for a new Majlis (parliament). But the complex nature of Iranian parties with their different camps and factions, each with different tendencies, complicates any predictions about the election's outcome. It is by no means clear that the same trends
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Brief Analysis
South Asia:
New Refuge for Middle East–Style Radical Terrorists
The two recent plane hijackings in South Asia highlighted the growth there of terrorism and radical Islam. Whereas for decades Islamist and radical terrorism came out of the Middle East, the locus of such operations is shifting to South Asia. The most obvious problem is Afghanistan, a country unwilling and
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Brief Analysis
Implications of Turkey's Anti-Hizbullah Operation
The recent crackdown on "Turkish Hizbullah" has led to turmoil among Turkey's Islamists. Rather than provoking widespread fears of increased terrorism, the unveiling of a Hizbullah threat has created a context for another confrontation between the Turkish army and Turkey's legal pro-Islamist party, Fazilet. This clash has cast a political
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Brief Analysis
Jordan under Abdullah:
A One-Year Review
A key question regarding this half-British, largely American-reared monarch is how "Americanized" he is. He certainly has American tastes in entertainment (U.S. sitcoms) and pastimes (arcade video games). More importantly, he evinces more interest in 21st century issues like globalization and the need for sustained market reform than in 20th
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Jeffrey Goldberg
Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Democracy and the Palestinian Authority:
Is Good Governance Essential for Peace?
On January 27, 2000, David Schenker, a research fellow at The Washington Institute and author of Palestinian Democracy and Governance: An Appraisal of the Legislative Council, and Khalil Shikaki, of the Center for Palestine Research and Studies (CPRS) and editor of al-Siyasa al-Filastiniyya (Quarterly Journal of Palestine Policy), addressed the
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David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Jordan's Economy under Abdullah:
One Year On
After leaving Davos as one of the stars of the World Economic Forum this week, King Abdullah returns to a country that, in 1999, registered its fourth negative real growth rate in a row. Indeed, from the beginning of his rule, Jordan's new monarch has recognized that confronting Jordan's deep
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Robert Satloff
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
A Background to Iran's Forthcoming Majlis Elections
Speaking about Iran at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on January 30, U.S. secretary of state Madeleine Albright commented, "There is an attempt to probe a possibility of dialogue and we are waiting to see what happens in the Majlis [Parliament] election next month." What are the procedures
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In-Depth Reports
Between Damascus and Jerusalem:
Lebanon and Middle East Peace (2nd ed.)
It has become customary to speak of Israel-Syria peace negotiations as encompassing a Lebanese component. The interplay between Syria's hegemonic ambitions and Israel's security interests will dominate and determine Lebanon's place in whatever peace equation ultimately unfolds. In that context, there are objective justifications for Lebanon's ancillary status. But a
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Articles & Testimony
Sidebar:
Arab-Israeli Peace Process
The following is a sidebar to Dr. Satloff's article "The Next Turbulent Zone." The election of Ehud Barak fueled expectations of speedy success in the peace process, on both the Palestinian-Israeli track and the Syrian/Lebanese-Israeli track. Yet while progress is likely, a final resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict is not
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Robert Satloff
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