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In-Depth Reports
Between Damascus and Jerusalem:
Lebanon and Middle East Peace (2nd ed.)
It has become customary to speak of Israel-Syria peace negotiations as encompassing a Lebanese component. The interplay between Syria's hegemonic ambitions and Israel's security interests will dominate and determine Lebanon's place in whatever peace equation ultimately unfolds. In that context, there are objective justifications for Lebanon's ancillary status. But a
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Articles & Testimony
Sidebar:
Arab-Israeli Peace Process
The following is a sidebar to Dr. Satloff's article "The Next Turbulent Zone." The election of Ehud Barak fueled expectations of speedy success in the peace process, on both the Palestinian-Israeli track and the Syrian/Lebanese-Israeli track. Yet while progress is likely, a final resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict is not
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Sidebar:
Saddam's Shakiness
The following is a sidebar to Dr. Satloff's article "The Next Turbulent Zone." Given current trends, Iraq will emerge as the foremost national security albatross around the neck of the next administration. Since the Clinton administration's welcome, if belated, 1998 declaration of "regime change" as a key goal in Iraq
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Syria's Economy:
Prospects for Peace, Aid, and Market Reform
DANIELA GRESSANI In many ways, Syria's economy is not very different from that of other countries in the region. Oil is important, accounting for 60 percent of exports. Agriculture is more important than might be expected on the basis of natural endowment: it contributes about 20 percent of the gross
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Multilaterals:
Status and Prospects
On February 1, the multilateral track of the Middle East peace process is scheduled to resume in Moscow with the first meeting of the Steering Committee since May 1995. In the wake of Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak's election last summer, there was widespread expectation that the multilateral talks would
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Brief Analysis
Syria's Critique of the U.S. Draft Treaty:
A Textual Analysis
Syria-Israel negotiations are on hold, but Israelis and Syrians have found a way to negotiate through third parties--the media. Two weeks ago, Israel leaked the U.S. draft text of a proposed peace treaty, complete with a timeline for implementation, in the Israeli daily Ha'aretz. Over the last ten days, a
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Crucial Tests Await New Saudi Oil Council
This week the major oil companies are expected to announce big increases in profits, a reflection of the current high oil prices which last week soared to their highest level since the 1991 Gulf War. But apart from benefiting shareholders and helping fill the depleted financial coffers of Middle Eastern
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
The U.S. Draft Treaty for Syria-Israel Peace:
A Textual Analysis
After more than a week of negotiations in Shepherdstown, W.Va., the "working draft" of the Syria-Israel peace treaty reported in yesterday's Ha'aretz notes only one area of seemingly irreconcilable difference between the two parties--over the scope of the demilitarized zone separating the two sides. As currently worded, the text neither
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Robert Satloff
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Russia Returns to the Middle East Scene?
A good indicator of Russia's role in the Middle East is that Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak had no plans to return to Israel to be present for Boris Yeltsin's visit there even before Yeltsin stepped down as Russian president. The Israeli leader preferred to remain in the United States
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Brief Analysis
Europe's Critical Dialogue with Iran:
An Assessment
Iranian foreign minister Kamal Kharrazi arrived in London on Sunday to start a new initiative to break Iran further out of isolation. Europe has sought to engage Iran as the best way to promote Iranian moderation and reform. With Iran's parliamentary elections approaching next month, there will almost certainly be
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Brief Analysis
A Syria-Israel Summit:
Prospects for Peace
RAGHIDA DERGHAM Peace for Syria is not a tactical move. Pursuing a breakthrough is now declared Syrian policy, and Damascus does not back down from its declared policy. Today, Syria is giving the logic of negotiation precedence over the logic of resistance in its quest to liberate the Golan Heights
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Brief Analysis
The South Lebanon Army and Syria-Israel Talks
While Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Syrian Foreign Minister Faruq al-Shara are talking peace at Shepherdstown, the fighting in south Lebanon still goes on. Last time the two leaders met in Washington in December, the party was almost spoiled after a stray shell fired by South Lebanese Army (SLA)
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Brief Analysis
Removing Syria from the List of State Sponsors of Terrorism:
Between Peace and Counterterrorism
With Syrian-Israeli peace talks underway in Shepherdstown, W.Va., media attention has focused on the shape of a possible peace agreement and the potential for U.S. financial assistance to the parties. Virtually no attention, however, has been paid to the principal legal obstacle in the way of U.S. aid to one
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David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
Make Syria Pay a Price for Peace
The millennial year opened on a high note for U.S. diplomacy, with Syria-Israel peace talks convening yesterday in Shepherdstown, W.Va. Unlike the other two participants, however, Washington has so far not indicated what it wants from these negotiations or what it is willing to pay to get it. Although Washington
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Robert Satloff
In-Depth Reports
Palestinian Democracy and Governance:
An Appraisal of the Legislative Council
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David Schenker
In-Depth Reports
Who Rules Iran:
The Structure of Power in the Islamic Republic
A landmark study that offers clear and understandable answers to fundamental questions about the most complex facets of the Iranian regime, probing the lines between hardliners and reformers, revolutionary and national interests, theocracy and electoral politics, and more.
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Wilfried Buchta
In-Depth Reports
Holier Than Thou:
Saudi Arabia's Islamic Opposition
Although Saudi Arabia is popularly perceived as the most religious of Arab countries, the question of who in the kingdom determines its dominant Islamic discourse has been the subject of controversy since the state's founding. The formation of Saudi Arabia in the early twentieth century involved the unique harnessing of
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Articles & Testimony
The Next Turbulent Zone
After a half-decade in which the Balkans, Central Africa, and East Asia were the hottest spots on the globe, the Middle East--including North Africa--is likely to assert itself over the next five years as a zone of turbulence. Some of the turmoil will be fueled by the irredentism left over
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Robert Satloff
In-Depth Reports
The Oil Kingdom at 100:
Petroleum Policymaking in Saudi Arabia
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Brief Analysis
Israeli-Lebanese Negotiations:
The Palestinian Refugee Issue
Syrian foreign minister Faruq al-Shara's recent announcement that Damascus and Beirut will sign peace treaties with Israel together is not surprising, considering Syria's hegemony in Lebanon. But while Israel, Syria, and the United States have expressed guarded optimism about the latest resumption of peace talks, Lebanon has been more reserved
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