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11364
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Brief Analysis
Iran's Recent Missile Test:
Assessment and Implications
Iran gave a new twist to President Khatami's call for a "civilizational dialogue" on July 22 when it test-launched a medium-range missile with the potential to reach India in the east, Russia in the north, Egypt and Turkey in the west and Israel, Jordan and all Gulf Cooperation Council states
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Turkey and Europe:
Integration or Alienation?
The December 1997 European Union (EU) summit in Luxembourg accepted the membership candidacies of ten Eastern and Central European countries and Cyprus. Contrary to Turkish expectations, however, Turkey was not accepted as a "candidate." This disappointing result -- known in Turkey as ''the Luxembourg shock'' -- was the result of
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Brief Analysis
Low Oil Prices:
Implications for the Gulf Monarchies
The oil price downturn began in late 1996, but the very sharp fall started in mid-1997 and has persisted to the present. The average price of oil in 1997 was approximately $1.50 less per barrel than in 1996, and the average for 1998 may be as much as $3.00 to
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Brief Analysis
Netanyahu's Dilemma:
Coalition Tug-of-War
With the first high-level, direct talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority in 16 months reaching an impasse just hours after they opened, pressures facing Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu are heating up. From Gaza come statements that Palestinians will talk only with Washington, which has already declared that the "ball
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Brief Analysis
Saddam Husayn Prepares for an October Confrontation
On July 21, Iraq's ruling Revolutionary Command Council "strongly warned that it will not allow any party . . [including] the United States or UNSCOM [to] prolong the embargo." This developed a theme introduced in Saddam Husayn's speech on the July 17th anniversary of the 1968 Ba'th revolution. The July
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Articles & Testimony
New Nuances
Though it has escaped the attention of the media, the Clinton Administration seems to have decided on a Middle East policy that does not rule out U.S. recognition of a unilateral declaration of Palestinian statehood. The articulation of this policy has come subtly, emerging not from the direct comments of
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Iraq Strategy Review:
Options for U.S. Policy
On July 7, 1998, Patrick Clawson, research director at The Washington Institute; Andrew Parasiliti, director of programs at the Middle East Institute; and Kenneth Pollack, research fellow at The Washington Institute addressed a Special Policy Forum marking the release of Iraq Strategy Review, an Institute study outlining the different possible
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Patrick Clawson
Kenneth Pollack
Brief Analysis
U.S. Military Aid to Egypt:
Assessment and Recommendations
This is the second in a two-part series on the topic "U.S. Aid to Egypt: Building a Partnership for the 21st Century." Read Part I. The question of U.S. military aid to Egypt poses an unusual policy dilemma: should it go up or down? On one hand, Egypt's strategic location
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Robert Satloff
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
U.S. Economic Aid to Egypt:
Designing a New, Pro-Growth Package
This is the first in a two-part series on the topic "U.S. Aid to Egypt: Building a Partnership for the 21st Century." Read Part II. For the first time in nearly twenty years, the United States will soon revamp foreign aid to Israel and Egypt. Given the centrality of these
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Robert Satloff
Patrick Clawson
In-Depth Reports
Building toward Crisis:
Saddam Husayn's Strategy for Survival
Saddam Husayn and Iraq have undergone a remarkable transformation since 1995, when Saddam was fighting for his very survival. Today, Saddam seems firmly in control in Iraq. He has pacified his family and bought time with the tribes, restored some of the Republican Guard's shattered pride, and apparently convinced his
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In-Depth Reports
Iraq Strategy Review:
Options for U.S. Policy
Iraq has been a continuing problem for U.S. policy, as was brought home during the November 1997-February 1998 crisis. Whereas much dissatisfaction was heard about the current policy, the popular debate exposed the difficulties with alternative courses of action. The challenge posed by Iraq for U.S. policy has some enduring
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Next Arab Summit:
Who? What? When? Where? Why? How?
In the weeks since Yasir Arafat first called for an emergency Arab summit to address the peace process stalemate, Arab capitals have responded with near-unanimous support for the idea. But despite that agreement-in-principle, actual planning for a summit has been hampered by disputes among Arab countries on a few minor
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Brief Analysis
Khobar Towers' Lessons for Counterterrorism and Gulf Policy
Two years after the death of 19 Americans in the June 25, 1996 bombing of the Khobar Towers in Dhahran, it is appropriate to consider the quandaries for U.S. terrorism policy that the bombing exposed. The hope that U.S. investigators could identify the perpetrators of bombings overseas as readily as
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
EU vs. Israel on Trade:
Peace Process Posturing or Commercial Dispute?
The Council of Ministers from European Union (EU) governments is due to meet June 29 to discuss the recommendations of the EU Commission -- the Brussels bureaucracy -- to impose restrictions on trade with Israel. At stake is more than an arcane trade dispute. Because of this matter, Manuel Marin
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Middle East Reverberations of the Nuclear Tests in India and Pakistan
The recent nuclear tests conducted by India and Pakistan have aroused a range of reactions across the Middle East. Following are representative statements by politicians and media analysts regarding the significance and the implications of the nuclear competition on the Indian subcontinent. Statements from the Arab World "Pakistan's possession of
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Brief Analysis
The United States, Russia, and the Middle East
Let me start with the issue of Moscow's role. Russia is an obvious player in this region. We may or may not like this fact, but there is certainly no blinking it. To the contrary, anyone who starts from the assumption that our goal has to be to marginalize the
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Brief Analysis
'Knives, Tanks, and Missiles':
Israel's Security Revolution
On June 15, 1998, Eliot Cohen, director of the strategic studies program at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Michael Eisenstadt, senior fellow in military affairs at The Washington Institute, and Andrew Bacevich, director of SAIS's Foreign Policy Institute and director-designate of the Center for International Studies
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Eliot Cohen
Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Human Rights in the Palestinian Authority:
A Status Report
In the five years since the September 1993 signing of the Oslo Accords (formally, the Israel-PLO Declaration of Principles), not much peace has been produced. The feeling of hope and optimism among ordinary people has died down. One issue for Palestinians has been the continuing control by Israel. Despite the
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Brief Analysis
Iran:
One Year after Khatemi's Election
Iran has become pragmatic. The pragmatism began not with Khatemi but with the first day of the revolution. As happens with any ideological revolution, there is a significant change between the ideology while in opposition and the policy upon taking power. This bitter reality has forced Iran to deviate from
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Patrick Clawson
Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
U.S. Sanctions on Iran:
What Has Been Achieved and at What Cost?
Testimony before the House Committee on International Relations The U.S. sanctions on Iran have imposed costs on the U.S. economy, but those have been small compared to the benefits. When the sanctions were adopted, the weight of expert opinion was that they would have little effect on Iran. The Financial
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Patrick Clawson
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