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Brief Analysis
London Peace Talks Will Boost Blair and May Shift Europe's Role
On Monday, May 4, the U.S.-brokered peace talks involving Israel and the Palestinian Authority will be held in London. Few expect progress in those talks. But the occasion might serve to enhance the role of the European Union (EU), and particularly Britain, in the peace process, making it a more
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Palestinian Politics and the Peace Process
During the period when his movement's goal was the destruction of Israel, Yasser Arafat developed a style of leadership that allowed him to deal effectively with the Palestinian people and the Arab countries. That style was for all power to be centralized and personalized, although non-dictatorial. This leadership style allowed
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Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
Egypt's Economic Reform:
Is It for Real?
Throughout its reform program, Egypt has established a pattern of reform that avoids the problems of the Southeast Asian economies in three key ways: First, Egypt has not run a large deficit in the balance of payments current account. Egypt's current account deficit is of the order of a couple
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Brief Analysis
Sudan May Emerge As Irritant to U.S.-Egyptian Ties
As President Clinton toured Africa earlier this month, seven U.S. government officials met with Sudanese rebel leaders in Asmara. The meeting followed months of signs that the U.S. government is stepping up efforts to weaken if not overthrow the Sudanese government. At the same time, ties between the governments of
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Jon B. Alterman
Articles & Testimony
Irish Pact Is Mixed Model for Mideast
What do Middle Easterners have to learn from the Northern Ireland peace accord? Other than the common legacy of terrorism and the shedding of innocent blood, the two conflicts are fundamentally different and the solutions reached at Stormont last week and in Oslo in 1993 are very different, too. But
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
The State Department's 1997 Terrorism Report:
Issues to Watch
The Department of State will soon issue Patterns of Global Terrorism 1997, its authoritative survey of trends and developments in international terrorism. Its credibility requires fair, objective, and comprehensive reporting of all relevant documented facts, complemented by convincing circumstantial evidence, concerning the activities of terrorist organizations and the role of
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Brief Analysis
The Khatami Phenomenon in Iran:
The Beginning of the End for the Islamic Republic?
The only people who do not realize that the Islamic revolution is over are some in Washington and those in power in Tehran. The revolutionary zeal and popularity is gone. In many ways, Iran today is like the Soviet Union under Gorbechev, with the critical difference that the transition away
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Brief Analysis
Enhancing Public Preparedness for Chemical and Biological Terrorism
The crisis with Iraq, the decision to immunize U.S. troops against anthrax, and recent incidents in the U.S. and Britain (including at least one hoax) have together raised the American public's awareness of the threat posed by chemical and biological (CB) terrorism. Heightened awareness, however, has not been matched by
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
The Conundrum of 'Further Redeployments':
Does Oslo Offer Its Own Solution?
The peace process, says the State Department spokesman, is in "dire straits." That is the assessment following Special Middle East Coordinator Dennis Ross's trip to the Middle East, in which no solution was reached for a key element of the current impasse: the question of the second and third redeployments
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Robert Satloff
In-Depth Reports
Sadat and His Legacy:
Egypt and the World, 1977-1997
Introduction Anwar Sadat remains a controversial figure in the Middle East. Praised as a prophet and cursed as a traitor, neither his death in 1981 nor the passage of time have resolved the ongoing debate about the man and his legacy. There is not yet an authoritative biography of Sadat
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Jon B. Alterman
Articles & Testimony
Missiles and Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) in Iraq and Iran:
Current Developments and Potential for Future Surprises
The following analysis was prepared for the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States (The Rumsfeld Commission), March 23, 1998. This paper will attempt to answer the following questions: 1) What are the current missile capabilities of Iraq and Iran? 2) What kind of WMD payloads
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Israel and the Peace Process:
An Observer's View
Netanyahu as politician: When asked about himself, Netanyahu replies that he is neither Shimon Peres nor Yitzhak Shamir. Indeed, Netanyahu is not the ideologue some think he is: he has met with Arafat, he never speaks of "Greater Israel" and by agreeing to the Hebron Accord of January 1997, he
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
MENABANK:
Would U.S. Membership Help the Peace Process?
What Is MENABANK? The idea for a regional development bank in the Middle East has been around for years. However, practical work for creation of a bank only began when the four core peace process parties—Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Jordan, and Egypt—jointly proposed the creation of the Bank in 1995
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Brief Analysis
Saudi Arabia on the Verge of a Transitional Period
King Fahd's recent illness, including hospitalization from March 9 through 11, are reminders of his frail health and aging years. Fahd, born in 1921, suffered a stroke in November 1995. Since then he has had difficulties in concentration for any stretch of time and in his short-term memory. It seems
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Brief Analysis
Economics and the Renewal of Jordan-Israel Ties
When King Hussein meets with President Clinton this week, most media speculation will surround provocative comments he has made reportedly urging direct dialogue between the United States and Iraq. In the tradition of "good news is no news," little attention will be focused on one of the more upbeat developments
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Articles & Testimony
Developments in the Middle East
Testimony before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Subcommittee on Near East and South Asian Affairs Mr. Chairman, It is an honor to participate in this timely and important hearing on a subject of vital national interest. I thank you for the opportunity to present my views to this Committee
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Assessing the Oslo Stalemate:
Problems and Solutions
Two Problems: "There are two main reasons why the peace process has stalemated. The first is obvious - Oslo has yet to produce very much peace. Here, one needs to go to basics. In absolute terms, more Israelis have died in the four years since Oslo than did during the
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Israel:
Between the Gulf Crisis and the Peace Process
The assassination of Yitzhak Rabin was a watershed event for Israel, and the country has not settled down since. This event had implications for the political system, the role of the ultra orthodox, and the public mood as well as the peace process. Israel at fifty is a country coming
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Brief Analysis
The United Nations and the Middle East
Establishing the Guidelines for Settlement. The United Nations has been dealing with various aspects of the Arab-Israeli conflict since its inception. There are two basic UN resolutions that have had a direct bearing on shaping the future of the Middle East. First is General Assembly Resolution 181 (1947), the partition
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Dore Gold
Brief Analysis
U.S. Objectives in Iraq:
Rollback vs. Containment
The terms rollback and containment surfaced during the Cold War. Rollback was always preferred to containment, but until Ronald Reagan's success in the 1980's, the Soviets were too strong. For this reason, the United States essentially settled for containment during the Cold War. By contrast, Iraq has a regime that
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