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Brief Analysis
Iran and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Despite the recent focus on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD), Iran poses a greater long-term threat to U.S. interests in the Persian Gulf. Iran possesses a large chemical weapons (CW) arsenal consisting primarily of first generation (World War I era) agents, and it is believed to have a nerve
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD):
Unresolved Issues
The agreement hammered out by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and Iraqi President Saddam Hussein resolving (at least temporarily) the most recent crisis over access to suspected WMD-related sites in Iraq fails to address the fundamental problem the international community faces in Iraq: Baghdad's continued refusal to comply with UN
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
'Oil for Food' or the End of Sanctions?
While Kofi Annan's diplomacy has received headlines, another Security Council action last week-approval of United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1153 on February 20-was subject to remarkably little scrutiny. This resolution, designed to expand the existing oil-for-food program with Iraq, was intended to blunt criticism from Arab and others as
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Assessing the UN-Iraq Accord:
Impact on Iraq, UNSCOM, and U.S. Policy
The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed by United Nations (UN) Secretary General Kofi Annan and Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz marks a turning point in the approach of the international community toward the regime of Saddam Hussein, and the activities of the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) and International Atomic
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
The Second Les Aspin Memorial Lecture:
Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations—Peace, But Not Now
Les Aspin was an extraordinary man. His life was consumed with ideas, and he spent much of his time trying to come up with ways to improve policy. He was always interested in the Middle East, and because of his interest, this memorial lecture will discuss how to improve the
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Brief Analysis
Iraq's Nuclear Weapons Program:
Past, Present, and Future Challenges
Iraq's nuclear program consisted of two elements: a long-range program dating back to the early 1980's and a crash program initiated after the 1990 invasion of Kuwait. Has Iraq not invaded Kuwait, its long-range nuclear program, involving the enrichment of uranium by various means, probably would have yielded a small
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Brief Analysis
The U.S. Role in the Peace Process:
A Perspective
Amid continuing difficulties in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process, focus has shifted to the role of the United States. There is a good deal of confusion concerning what the United States can and cannot do. The evolving role of the United States can be examined through a number of specific and
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Articles & Testimony
The Case for Hitting Hard at Saddam
Now that a broad consensus has emerged in government circles on the need to use force against Saddam Hussein, Washington should stay the course. It should not be deterred by last-minute Russian or French diplomacy, by inconclusive United Nations debates or-perhaps the biggest obstacle of all-by its own self-doubts. Iraq
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Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Iraq's Biological Warfare Program:
Past, Present, and Future Challenges
1974: Iraqi BW program begun at Salman Pak as the al-Hazan Ibn al-Hathem Institute under the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research. Funded by Iraqi Intelligence Ministry, first employees are Ministry of Defense personnel (subsequent employees recruited from universities). Initially a joint effort to produce weapons for both clandestine
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Brief Analysis
Algeria:
Between Democracy and Terrorism
Contrary to most media reportage, the constitutional crisis in Algeria in 1991-1992 was not the engine that ignited terrorism. Acts of terrorism by groups and individuals claiming to speak in the name of Islam began in the mid-1980s, when the Algerian government began exploring ways to implement economic reforms and
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In-Depth Reports
Decision Making in Asad's Syria
Pages: 45
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PeaceWatch/PolicyWatch Anthology 1997
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Brief Analysis
Current Iraqi Military Capabilities:
An Assessment
With the Clinton administration warning that its patience with Iraq is wearing thin and that military strikes could be just around the corner, it is useful to revisit the question of Iraq's current ability to respond militarily to a new round of conflict. Barely a Paper Tiger. The Iraqi armed
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Kenneth Pollack
Brief Analysis
Iranian Links to International Terrorism:
The Khatemi Era
On January 7, 1998, Iran's President Khatemi told America-via CNN-that terrorism "should be condemned . . . and we condemn every form of it in the world." Khatemi also "denied categorically" reports that Iranian officials abroad regularly engage in acts of surveillance against Americans. These are encouraging words. However, a
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Brief Analysis
Iraq’s Weapons of Mass Destruction:
Current and Future Challenges
UNSCOM has been able to establish that in the second half of 1986, Iraq began work on at least fifteen different missile systems, in hopes of finding a weapon that would allow them to put pressure on Iran to end the war. Iraq has admitted to all fifteen of these
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Brief Analysis
The Crisis with Iraq:
Reviving the Military Option
Saddam Husayn's speech last Saturday marking the anniversary of Operation Desert Storm confirmed that the current impasse is no ordinary Iraq crisis. Saddam gave the Security Council until May 20 to lift sanctions on Iraq or he would cease cooperation with the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM). Saddam's speech also
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Michael Eisenstadt
Kenneth Pollack
Brief Analysis
Messrs. Netanyahu and Arafat Come to Town:
Peace Process Prospects, 1998
The Oslo accord is designed to divide the Israeli-Palestinian peace process into as many sub-phases as possible. Based on former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin's concept of incrementalism, this cautious approach includes a review of the other side's compliance with past obligations before moving to the next sub-phase. Consequently, Israeli Prime
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Arab Anti-Terror Efforts:
Assessing an Arab League Initiative
Culminating five years of formal discussions designed to find an effective way to combat terrorism, the Council of Arab Interior Ministers (CAIM) decided January 5 to adopt an all-Arab antiterrorism accord, pending approval of the Arab justice ministers next April. Coming in the wake of recent massacres in Algeria and
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Brief Analysis
Khatemi's Dialogue with America, Not with Washington
Iranian President Mohammad Khatemi's January 7 interview on CNN was long on history but short on policy indicatives. The most striking aspect of was that he gave it, not what he said. Khatemi is staking his prestige on foreign policy, which is surprising from a man whose entire career and
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Israeli-Turkish Cooperation:
Full Steam Ahead
The Israeli-Turkish-U.S. trilateral search-and-rescue exercise taking place this week near Israel's Mediterranean coast highlights the thickening network of ties between Washington's two major non-Arab, Middle Eastern allies. A plus for U.S. interests in the region, Israeli-Turkish relations are watched with growing unease in Damascus, Baghdad, and Tehran, on the one
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Alan Makovsky
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