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Brief Analysis
Iran after Khatemi's Elections:
Whither U.S. 'Containment' Policy?
Mid-course corrections are necessary to maintain the viability of Washington's Gulf policy and to secure U.S. interests, including those in Central Asia. Sanctions have not worked in the past to hasten the downfall of leaders such as Castro, Qaddafi, or Saddam. Although sanctions have slowed down Iran's development of a
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Brief Analysis
Al-Sayigh's Deportation and a Warming of Saudi-Iranian Relations
Today's announcement of the deal between U.S. law enforcement officials and Hani al-Sayigh, an alleged member of the clandestine Shi`i organization "Saudi Hizballah" with links to the al-Khobar Towers bombing, has strategic, not just legal, implications for the investigation of that terrorist act. The decision to seek al-Sayigh's deportation to
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Brief Analysis
Algeria after Elections:
What Next?
The results of the Algerian election suggest that about 80 percent of the Algerian people (at least those who voted) favor separating "mosque" and "state." This outcome is significant because it indicates that Algerians are successfully resisting "Islamic totalitarianism." Many Algerians have said that the vote wasn't as clean as
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Brief Analysis
An Iraqi-Syrian Entente?
Prospects and Implications
On June 2, after a seventeen-year closure, Syria opened its border at three points to its neighbor and long-time rival Iraq. The move, coming amidst unusual reciprocal visits of Iraqi and Syrian business delegations to each others' capitals, suggests an economic marriage of convenience. There is a possibility, however, that
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Brief Analysis
Israeli Security, the Peace Process, and the U.S.-Israel Partnership
Netanyahu's Victory, One Year Later: When the Labor government was in power, it was legitimate to ask whether it is adequate to have a majority which supports the peace agreements even if it does not include the majority of the Jewish population. It is important to remember that the peace
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Brief Analysis
The Oslo Impasse and U.S. Policy:
Small Changes, Big Implications
On the 30th anniversary of the Six Day War, it is clear that the diplomacy designed to resolve a core element left from that conflict—the Israeli-Palestinian dispute - has reached an impasse. Not only has the security cooperation between Israel and the Palestinian Authority envisioned in the Oslo Accords broken
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Khatemi, the Search for Iranian 'Moderates,' and U.S. Policy
In banner headlines, newspapers across America heralded the surprise victor in Iran's May 23 presidential election - Mohammad Khatemi - as a moderate. This, in fact, marks at least the fourth attempt by the United States to find influential moderates among Iran's leadership since the revolution. In 1980, the Islamic
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Assessing Khatemi's Victory in Iran
Iran's recent presidential elections constitute an impressive personal victory for Hojjat ol-Islam Seyed Mohammed Khatami and a significant endorsement of greater pragmatism inside Iran. They also signal considerable popular discontent with the Islamic regime. They indicate a desire for change in policy, within the framework of the Islamic system. The
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Brief Analysis
Ehud Barak:
On the Record
Today, Israel's Labor Party elects a new leader, the first time neither Shimon Peres nor the late Yitzhak Rabin will head the party since the political revolution that followed the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Candidates include former Foreign and Interior Minister Ehud Barak, former Health Minister Ephraim Sneh, former Minister
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In-Depth Reports
Middle East Economic Trends and Forecasts
Summarizes assessments of various Middle East economic experts in order to provide an overview and forecast of regional prospects for 1998. The author focuses on issues affecting all Middle Eastern economies, including oil dependence, economic centralization, massive subsidization, and other long- and short-term factors.
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Lauren Rossman
In-Depth Reports
A Chronology of Diminishing Response:
UN Reactions to Iraqi Provocations since the Gulf War
Offers a chronological summary and analysis of UN reactions to Iraq's most flagrant violations of relevant UN resolutions from the end of the Gulf War through April 1997. The author shows that Security Council responses to Iraqi violations became noticeably forgiving over time -- particularly when compared with Council reactions
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Greg Saiontz
In-Depth Reports
Israeli Security, the Peace Process, and the U.S.-Israel Partnership
The United States and Israel are two countries -- distant in geography, very different in size -- but both democracies sharing common values and ideals. In this day and age, common ideals and common values make for common strategic interests, and that is really the basis of the U.S.-Israeli relationship
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Brief Analysis
Iranian Presidential Elections:
A Preview
Two-hundred and thirty-eight Iranians submitted their candidacy for the presidency, but the Council of Guardians, a group of senior clerics appointed by the supreme spiritual leader, only approved four. The two leading contenders are Ali Akbar Nateq-Nuri, present speaker of the Majles (parliament), and Mohammad Khatami, the former minister of
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Patrick Clawson
In-Depth Reports
The Arab-Israeli Peace Process:
Reassessing the Fundamentals
Keynote addresses by Moshe Arens, Jackson Diehl, Adnan Abu Odeh, and Ehud Ya'ari. With Jeane Kirkpatrick, Joseph Lieberman, Robert Pelletreau, Mortimer Zuckerman, Ziyad Abu Amr, and Reuven Rivlin.
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Brief Analysis
Assessing the Arab League's Call for a Freeze on Normalization
Last Sunday, the small Gulf state of Qatar, host to the next Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Economic Conference in November, rebuffed an attempt by Syria to postpone the event, despite the March 31st Arab League Council resolution calling for the suspension of political, economic, and cultural normalization with
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Lori Plotkin Boghardt
Brief Analysis
Iran vs. the West:
The View from Israel
In early 1995, few were inclined to try to refute the wisdom of Europe's policy of "critical dialogue" with Iran. The belief that benevolent, rational dialogue could reform Iran-even in the face of brazen aggression and unbridled political effrontery-seemed too compelling to pass up. Nevertheless, the policy was then, and
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Brief Analysis
Britain's New Labour Government and the Middle East
The victory of the Labour party in the British general elections on May 1 was expected although the huge majority-179 seats-that the new prime minister, Tony Blair, will enjoy did surprise most observers. His appointment of Robin Cook to the top foreign affairs slot had been predicted-Cook had been the
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Chemical and Biological Terrorism:
Threat and Response
Biological terrorism is very much a threat that we need to worry about. However, terrorists will face a number of formidable obstacles to conducting a successful biological attack. These include acquiring the agent, cultivating it and preparing it for dissemination, developing a means of dissemination, selecting and reconnoitering the target
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Brief Analysis
The State Department's 1996 Terrorism Report:
Filling in the Gaps
Last week, the Department of State released "Patterns of Global Terrorism 1996," its authoritative survey of trends and developments in international terrorism. While it remains an invaluable resource for policy makers and scholars, some of the report's analytical conclusions are deserving of intense scrutiny and debate. Most troubling in this
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Brief Analysis
Iran Sanctions Violations:
The Challenge for Washington
The April 10 German court finding that Iran's top leaders ordered the assassination of several dissidents in Berlin underscores the hollowness of Europe's policy of engagement with Iran, and presents the U.S. with a unique opportunity to make Iran's leaders pay a real economic price for their brazen disregard of
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