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Articles & Testimony
Iraq:
Outlook for National Elections and Governance
Iraq’s political transition accelerated in 2004 and will experience even more significant advances during 2005. The Iraqi elections represent the next major milestone in the transition, and the winners will fundamentally define Iraq’s future political system. Yet Iraq’s lack of experience with representative government makes forecasts of electoral outcomes difficult
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Brief Analysis
Improving Turkish-Russian Relations:
Turkey’s New Foreign Policy and Its Implications for the United States
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan finished his three-day visit to Moscow today. This trip follows Russian president Vladimir Putin's December 2004 Turkey trip, the first by a Russian head of state since Russia and the Ottoman Empire established relations in the fifteenth century -- excluding a 1972 sojourn by
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Right Course on Iran
Susan E. Rice ["We Need a Real Iran Policy," op-ed, Dec. 30] derides as "bizarre" President Bush's statement that "we're relying upon others" to take the leadership role in stopping Iran's nuclear program. She dismisses out of hand the Bush administration's acceptance of European leadership on this issue, claiming that
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Bush Administration and the Middle East:
Agenda for 2005
As the Bush administration prepares for the next four years, there are clear indications that there will be a greater focus on domestic policy issues -- such as Social Security -- during the president's second term in office. But the transformation of the Middle East is among the four broad
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Articles & Testimony
Abbas' Voice Resonates with Palestinians
In his campaign speeches, Mahmoud Abbas repeatedly emphasized issues that would have been alien to his predecessor and longtime mentor, Yasser Arafat. He focused, for instance, on restoring rule of law and ending the fouda -- or chaos -- that has engulfed Palestinian life. He opposed corruption and vowed to
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Is the PKK Still a Threat to the United States and Turkey?
On December 31, 2004, terrorists belonging to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a group on the U.S. State Department's Foreign Terror Organizations (FTO) list, ambushed Turkish security officers in the Sirnak province in southeastern Turkey, near the Iraqi border. Although the PKK declared a unilateral ceasefire after Turkey captured its
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Soner Cagaptay
Emrullah Uslu
Brief Analysis
Can the U.S. Win Turkey Over in 2005?
Understanding EU Dynamics and Confidence Building in Iraq
On January 3, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage visited Ankara to discuss with Turkish officials Iraq-related issues straining U.S.-Turkish relations, including unforthcoming Turkish support for U.S. operations in Iraq and the fight against the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a terrorist group with 5,500- 5,800 members in northern Iraq. Armitage's
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
In Mahmoud Abbas's Own Words
Interim Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas is widely expected to win the presidential elections scheduled for January 9. The media has focused on statements he has made on the campaign trail; below is a survey of his statements on a variety of policy issues over the past several years. Overall Political
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U.S.-Iran Relations:
A Danger to Gulf Stability
Remarks delivered at the second annual conference of the Gulf Research Center in Dubai. As the organizers of this conference have indicated in their description about this session, the most important issue Iran poses for the Gulf and the central issue in U.S.-Iran relations is Iran’s nuclear program. So that
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Defining Terrorism
On December 4, 2004, United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan's High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges, and Change released a report calling for several reforms to help the UN provide increased security for member nations. One of the chief recommendations identified by the sixteen-member panel was the need for an international
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Articles & Testimony
Election Can Reshape World for Palestinians
This Sunday, Palestinians in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem will cast their votes at more than 3,000 polling places and elect a new president of the Palestinian Authority. The turnout is expected to be high, and Israelis have promised to lift checkpoints that otherwise might impede the voting
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Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
King Abdullah II:
"Iraq is the Battleground -- the West against Iran."
King Abdullah II bin Al Hussein, descendant of the Prophet Muhammad, is the fourth ruler of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and the great-grandson of his namesake, the kingdom's founder. Born on January 30, 1962, to King Hussein's second wife, the British-born Princess Muna, he is the eldest of Hussein's
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Brief Analysis
Saudi Municipal Elections:
Royal Caution and Citizen Apathy
December 22 was the last day Saudi men could register to vote in municipal elections due to be held February 10 in the capital, Riyadh, and the surrounding area. Despite continuing outbreaks of al-Qaeda-related terrorism (nine terrorists were killed in clashes after two car bombs exploded in Riyadh on December
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Palestinian Stirrings
Something is stirring in Gaza. There is a sense of hope and possibility, a belief that it is time for a change. And there is a new discourse that includes all Palestinian factions and an open questioning of violence. I witnessed all this in an extraordinary event hosted in Gaza
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Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
JTIC Briefing:
Jeddah Attack Underscores Fall in Capabilities of Saudi Militants
The 6 December 2004 assault on the US consulate in Jeddah ended six months of relative calm in the Kingdom and provided an unwelcome reminder that the Al-Qaeda movement is down but not out in the region. Michael Knights analyses whether the attack was an unsuccessful anomaly or the leading
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
The Middle East Predicament
The United States has had critical interests in the Middle East for as long as it has been a global power. Securing the flow of the region’s oil to the world economy has always been a central priority. During the Cold War, competition with the Soviet Union for Middle Eastern
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Influencing Iran's Nuclear Activities through Major Power Cooperation
This is the second in a two-part series on diplomacy surrounding the Iranian nuclear program. Read Part I. The Iran nuclear issue will be on the international agenda in the coming months. The often-postponed visit to Tehran by the head of Russia's Atomic Energy Agency (Minatom) Alexander Rumyantsev to sign
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Are All Politics Local?
A Look at Palestinian Municipal Elections Results
The first round of West Bank municipal balloting occurred on Thursday, December 23. Voting was held in twenty-six locations, ranging from Jericho to smaller towns and villages. This was the first round of local voting since 1976. The results—a Fatah victory but Hamas gains—have important implications for the next Palestinian
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
When Minorities Rule in the Middle East (Part II):
Historical Realities
On December 15, 2004, Ammar Abdulhamid and Martin Kramer addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Dr. Kramer, the Wexler-Fromer Fellow at The Washington Institute, is senior research fellow and former director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University. The following is
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Martin Kramer
Articles & Testimony
Getting Gaza Right
The most frequent criticism of President Bush's Middle East policy is that he has been too hands-off. Unless America takes the lead, so the argument goes, the "peace process" will languish. In other words, U.S. activism is the key to progress. This is, by and large, bad analysis and a
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Robert Satloff
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