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Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iran's Posturing on the Strait of Hormuz
The United States steadily continues to tighten the screws on Iran, prompting an upswing in Iranian rhetoric implying that closing the Strait of Hormuz is on the table as a military option in response to U.S. actions. While Iran’s naval capabilities are ill-equipped for a total closure, these threats from
۱۹ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
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Firas Elias
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Opinion Survey Insights into the 2018 Iraqi Election
The results of the May 2018 Iraqi elections caught many by surprise, especially in the polling field. A series of public opinion surveys conducted between March and May predicted that the Nasr Coalition, led by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, would win the highest number of seats in the Iraqi Parliament
۱۹ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
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Munqith Dagher
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
A Fifth Presidential Term for Bouteflika?
With Algeria’s presidential elections scheduled in April 2019, calls are now being heard from within the Algerian regime for President Abdelaziz Bouteflika to run for a fifth term. This messaging has caused controversy and confusion among Algerians, who are wondering about the unexpressed reasons for regime figures to insist on
۱۹ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
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Ahmed Marwane
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iraq Faces its Next Crisis: Water
While the very earliest civilizations in Iraq grew up around the gifts of the Tigris and Euphrates, millions of Iraqis from the North to the newly revived southern Marshes are at risk from the actions of Iraq’s northern and astern neighbors. Turkey and Iran’s increased limiting of water of the
۱۹ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
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Yerevan Saeed
Brief Analysis
Putting Iraq-KRG Oil Relations on Solid Legal Ground
Notwithstanding their decades of contention, the two governments must resolve their differences legally to make way for economic development and stave off public unrest.
۱۹ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
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James Jeffrey
Bilal Wahab
Articles & Testimony
What the Stolen Iranian Nuclear Secrets Do, and Don’t, Reveal
The Israeli revelations make the argument for sticking with the nuclear accord much more difficult to sustain.
۱۷ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Iran After the JCPOA Withdrawal (Part 2): Shaping Tehran’s Response
Tehran will likely resort to measured countermoves in the nuclear domain at first, but successful U.S. pressure could spur it to challenge JCPOA limits, take action in non-nuclear domains, or push back against U.S. and allied forces.
۱۷ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Iran After the JCPOA Withdrawal (Part 1): Lessons from Past Pressure Campaigns
Tehran has generally responded to pressure by issuing threats, ramping up its nuclear activities, accepting temporary limits, and, when the heat is turned up, launching cyber, military, and terrorist operations.
۱۶ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
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Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
Syria Could Be on Trump-Putin Agenda, But Options for a Deal Are Slim
In addition to his poor record on keeping promises, Putin has no ability or desire to genuinely restrain Iran, leaving little room for substantive dealmaking.
۱۵ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Video
Getting Syria Right at the Trump-Putin Summit
Keeping U.S. troops in place is critical to our national security, but American interests don't require the large-scale, long-term ground force that many fear.
۱۳ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
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James Jeffrey
Barbara A. Leaf
Dennis Ross
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
After the Match, Saudi Arabia Makes the Real Play
As the FIFA World Cup final approaches, a highlight this year was the four Middle Eastern countries participating for the first time in years. Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and Saudi Arabia each succeeded in qualifying, though their respective teams did not make it further than the first round of the Cup
۱۳ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
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Danya Rubenstein-Markiewicz
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Drawing on Past Lessons for Lasting Peace in Yemen
The Houthi militia’s track record of betrayal and broken promises shows that it only calls for negotiations and is willing to discuss compromises when the group is at a disadvantage. These negotiations allow the group’s fighters to catch their breath, reposition themselves, and launch a new round of violence. Thus
۱۳ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
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Moammar Al-Eryani
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Jordan’s Shift Back to the Sunni-Israeli Coalition
Despite recent tensions between Jordan and other stakeholders in the Middle East, shifting dynamics across the region have recently led to the formation of a tentative U.S.-backed cooperation between Israel and such Sunni Arab states as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and the Hashemite Kingdom. While this rapprochement
۱۳ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
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Abdullah Sawalha
Articles & Testimony
Political Divide Deepening in Turkey as Erdogan Assumes More Power
With the president aiming to force a dominant-party system on a split electorate, Turkish society may be headed for a long-term political crisis.
۱۲ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
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Soner Cagaptay
In-Depth Reports
Neutralizing the Gaza Powder Keg
Since the end of March 2018, the Gaza-Israel border has witnessed repeated violent eruptions initiated by Hamas, including challenging the border and causing massive fires in Israel. With ongoing friction for months and scores of Palestinian fatalities, clashes have grown progressively more violent, risking deterioration into yet another Israel-Hamas war
۱۲ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
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Michael Herzog
Ghaith al-Omari
In-Depth Reports
Toward a New U.S. Policy in Syria
Ground Zero for Countering Iran and Deterring an Islamic State Revival
Today, Syria is the sole battlefield in the world where American, Russian, Turkish, Iranian, and Israeli military forces all operate, along with a kaleidoscope of proxy actors foreign and domestic. As the preeminent arena of strategic competition in the Middle East and a wellspring of potential Islamic State resurgence, Syria
۱۰ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
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Katherine Bauer
Soner Cagaptay
Patrick Clawson
Michael Eisenstadt
James Jeffrey
Barbara A. Leaf
Matthew Levitt
Dennis Ross
Robert Satloff
Multimedia
Brief Analysis
Taking Stock of U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts Since 9/11
The director of strategic operational planning at the National Counterterrorism Center discusses the general state of U.S. CT efforts, the persistence of the threat, and the need to focus on nonkinetic prevention methods.
۱۰ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
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Michael Nagata
◆
Counterterrorism Lecture Series
Articles & Testimony
We Already Gave Syria to Putin, So What’s Left for Trump to Say?
Given Moscow's repeatedly broken promises, the president should make clear that the United States will stay in Syria to continue fighting the Islamic State—and to back Israel against Iran if necessary.
۵ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
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Dennis Ross
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
U.S.-Kurdish Relations in Syria after the Manbij Roadmap
In June, Turkey and the United States announced that they had agreed to implement a roadmap to promote peace in the Syrian city of Manbij, which has been under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces since the 2016 expulsion of ISIS. The agreement came as part of U.S. efforts
۵ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
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Abdel Raheem Said
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Future of the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Lebanon
On the streets of Beirut, the impact of the Syrian Civil War is more than palpable. According to recent reports, Syrian refugees make up approximately a fourth of Lebanon’s total population. Seeking to address rising acrimony and hostility between refugees and Lebanese, the country’s authorities have been searching for solutions
۵ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
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Jiwan Soz
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