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Articles & Testimony
Salafi Politics During the Arab Uprisings: Methodological Insights from Game Theory
Understanding how Salafi leaders balance ideological robustness and personal risk as they are validated or threatened by local circumstances might be a good place to start in assessing their future approach to political engagement.
۱۹ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Jacob Olidort
Brief Analysis
A Turkish 'Secure Strip' in Syria: Domestic Concerns and Foreign Limitations
Although Ankara has the necessary parliamentary authorization and professional military capacity to establish a safe zone, it would still need Western intelligence help, air support, and diplomatic backing to cover the operation and deter Russian retaliation.
۱۹ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Soner Cagaptay
Cem Yolbulan
Articles & Testimony
Russian Expectations for Post-Sanctions Iran
Joint support of Basher al-Assad's regime has highlighted Moscow and Tehran’s developing political alliance. In contrast, the level of economic cooperation between the two states has historically been very modest: 2014 trade between the two countries amounted to $1.68 billion and was just 0.2% of all Russian foreign trade. Yet
۱۹ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Huseyn Panahov
Brief Analysis
Legal Justifications for a Safe Zone in Syria
UN Security Council Resolutions 2170, 2249, and 2254 offer ample grounds for establishing a zone to protect refugees and counter the Islamic State, but shaping the international diplomatic response would be paramount given the legal gray areas inherent in such action.
۱۹ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
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James Jeffrey
Articles & Testimony
Terror Attack in Ankara: A New Era of Kurdish Politics for Turkey?
The Kurdish issue in Turkey stands on the precipice of becoming an international problem, involving all sorts of nefarious actors from the Syrian civil war.
۱۸ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Iran and Russia's Growing Defense Ties
The lifting of international sanctions and the region's vastly changing geopolitical environment have opened a window of opportunity for Tehran to buy potent arms from Russia and modernize its arsenal.
۱۸ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
The State(s) of Ideology in the Middle East: Introduction
Western policy must be precise and consistent in its use of terms, objectives, and methods in order to account for differing local perceptions.
۱۸ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Jacob Olidort
Brief Analysis
Countering Russian and Assad Regime Responses to Safe Zones
For such zones to succeed, they must be backed with militarily enforced no-fly zones and a persuasive response to Moscow's inevitable small-scale violations and disinformation campaign.
۱۷ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Anna Borshchevskaya
TWI Series on State(s) of Ideology
Explore the roles of Salafism, jihadism, nationalism, and other movements as drivers of conflict and alliance post-Arab Spring.
۱۷ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Jacob Olidort
Soner Cagaptay
David Pollock
Said Amir Arjomand
Brief Analysis
Intervention to Assist Fleeing Syrians: Who, What, Where, Why, and How
Establishment of humanitarian corridors, safe havens, safe zones, or buffer or no-fly zones could turn the tide of Syria's humanitarian crisis, but it could also pose numerous complications and create second- and third-order effects for the region.
۱۶ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Col. Nora Marcos
TWI Series on Syrian Safe Havens/Zones
Understand the policy implications of humanitarian safe havens, safe zones, buffers, or no-fly zones in Syria with these assessments of the who, what, where, why, and how of the various options.
۱۶ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Fabrice Balanche
Lt Col John R. Barnett
Anna Borshchevskaya
Nicholas Burns
Soner Cagaptay
Michael Eisenstadt
James Jeffrey
Col. Nora Marcos
Nadav Pollak
David Schenker
Andrew J. Tabler
Articles & Testimony
The Reality of Riyadh
Saudi Arabia today is trying to unite the Arab world, while countering Iran in Yemen, Syria, and elsewhere, and also coping with an oil price that remains stubbornly weak.
۱۶ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Russia's Grim Pattern in Syria
Once again, Moscow has expressed agreement with the United States on the broad principles for easing the Syrian conflict and then acted without regard to those principles.
۱۶ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Desert Stretch: Saudi Arabia's Ambitious Military Operations
Riyadh's offer to deploy ground troops in Syria and reestablish air operations comes while its forces are still heavily committed in Yemen and a huge military exercise begins in the kingdom's north.
۱۶ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Understanding Iran's Assembly of Experts Vote
The victors, winnowed from an especially large field, will serve until 2024 and therefore may play a role in choosing a new Supreme Leader.
۱۶ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Patrick Schmidt
Brief Analysis
The Worst of the Syrian Refugee Crisis Is Coming for Europe
The Assad regime's Russian-aided military campaign and the onset of spring augur another mass refugee flow into the EU, and the only surefire way to stop it is by addressing the root of the crisis inside Syria.
۱۲ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Fabrice Balanche
Articles & Testimony
What Happens if Aleppo Falls?
Kathy Gilsinan interviewed Andrew J. Tabler on what an Assad victory would mean for the war and the West. The full text of the article, including graphics, is available on the Atlantic website. Kathy Gilsinan: I wanted to start with what the significance of Aleppo has been to the Syrian
۱۱ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Andrew J. Tabler
Articles & Testimony
Five Years On, Egypt Lacks Introspection
The revolution of January 25, 2011 remains the greatest act of social reassessment in Egypt’s history. All involved parties agreed on the importance of change for Egypt’s future, and that this future required the introduction of increasingly modern means and values. Its actors were dedicated to bringing Egyptian citizens a
۱۱ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Ahmad Al-Sawy
Articles & Testimony
Netanyahu Fights for Israel's Energy Future
Even with the low price of oil and natural gas, there are ample business and policy reasons for exploiting Israel's reserves quickly, so Netanyahu is pushing ahead despite ongoing political constraints.
۱۱ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Five Years After Mubarak's Fall, Lessons for Washington
By allowing events 6,000 miles away to outpace its decisionmaking, the Obama administration put itself in a lose-lose situation, which is why Egyptian and regional players regard U.S. policy during the uprising as a failure.
۱۱ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Eric Trager
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