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Brief Analysis
Iraq's Nascent Nuclear Doctrine:
Insights from a Captured Document
During Operation Desert Storm, U.S. forces captured several million Iraqi military documents. Among these was one titled "The Operational Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction; Volume 2; Part 2; Foundations for the Use of Nuclear Weapons in War." The manual was published in July 1988 by the Ministry of Defense
۱۲ مارس ۲۰۰۳
Brief Analysis
Fighting With or Without Turkey?
Lessons and Implications
It is unclear clear whether the Turkish parliament will re-vote or approve the deployment of U.S. troops in Turkey in preparation for an attack on Iraq. Turkish military cooperation -- or its absence -- may either facilitate or, respectively, complicate an American military operation. Even if the Turkish parliament were
۱۲ مارس ۲۰۰۳
Articles & Testimony
Re-Engage the World
The resignation of Charlotte Beers as undersecretary of state for public diplomacy offers an opportunity to redirect U.S. outreach to foreign audiences away from ill-considered, feel-good therapy toward practical programs that advance our policy goals and build long-term friendships. This is a particularly urgent task given the deepening isolation in
۹ مارس ۲۰۰۳
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Time's Up
The Bush administration has billed what would be the 18th Security Council resolution vote against Saddam Hussein as the "final opportunity" for both Iraqi compliance and the U.N.'s "moral relevance." This challenge to the U.N. may ring familiar. Last fall, President Bush dared the General Assembly to ignore 12 years
۷ مارس ۲۰۰۳
Brief Analysis
Iran's Municipal Elections:
A Turning Point for the Reform Movement?
On February 28, 2003, elections were held across Iran for positions on city and village councils, local political bodies that were revived in 1999. Whereas the 1999 council elections resulted in impressive gains by reformers, last Friday's electoral results demonstrated the resurgence of the right wing. Capitalizing on low voter
۶ مارس ۲۰۰۳
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Ray Takeyh
Articles & Testimony
KSM in Custody
The capture of Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, al Qaeda's operational commander and 9/11 mastermind, demonstrates that the United States can, in fact, walk and chew gum at the same time. The fact that the greatest success to date in the war on terrorism occurred well into the planning stages of the
۵ مارس ۲۰۰۳
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
What Kind of Defense Might Iraq Mount?
If the United States and the "coalition of the willing" go to war, the result will be a comprehensive defeat of the Iraqi regime and its military and security forces. What is not so clear is how smoothly the military campaign will proceed. Many commentators seem to assume that any
۵ مارس ۲۰۰۳
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Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
The Shi'is and the Future of Iraq
The prospect of American military action in Iraq has raised concerns that dismantling the Ba'ath regime will weaken the state and spur the defection of its Shi'i majority under the influence of Iran. Yet, much of the pessimism surrounding this assessment obscures the historical role that the Shi'i community has
۴ مارس ۲۰۰۳
Articles & Testimony
To Win the Terror War
The capture of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed is great news for the War on Terror: The United States continues to take out al Qaeda's top leaders. But last month's federal indictment in Tampa, Fla., of eight members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is vital, too: It shows that the Bush administration
۴ مارس ۲۰۰۳
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
The U.S. Indictment of Palestinian Islamic Jihad Militants:
The Iranian Connection
On February 20, 2003, the U.S. Department of Justice announced the indictment of eight leading members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). The indictment provides a wealth of detail about the close connection between PIJ and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Background on PIJ and the Indictment PIJ is designated as
۳ مارس ۲۰۰۳
Brief Analysis
An Accident on the Road to U.S.-Turkish Cooperation in Iraq:
Implications for Turkey
In a dramatic session yesterday, the Turkish parliament convened to consider a motion sent by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, which had requested that a large U.S. force be permitted to use Turkish soil as a staging ground for a possible campaign in Iraq. The legislature refused to
۳ مارس ۲۰۰۳
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Taba Mythchief
After the U.S.-led coalition routed Iraq in Operation Desert Storm in 1991, President George H.W. Bush told Congress that he would vigorously pursue the Arab-Israeli peace process. Indeed, a landmark Middle East peace conference in Madrid followed in short order, which for the first time brought Israel to the same
۱ مارس ۲۰۰۳
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Turkey's Stakes in Iraq
Turkey's parliament will soon vote on whether to allow U.S. forces to use Turkish soil as a staging ground for a possible war with Iraq. Since Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz's trip to Ankara in early December 2002, Turkey and the United States have engaged in a protracted dialogue
۲۸ فوریهٔ ۲۰۰۳
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Soner Cagaptay
Mark Parris
Brief Analysis
New Sharon Government Sworn In:
A Preliminary Assessment
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon presented his new 68-member right-center government to the 120-member Knesset today. The government represents four parties with the following allocation of seats: Likud (40), Shinui (15), National Union (7), and National Religious Party (6). This marks the first Israeli government formed since 1974 that does not
۲۷ فوریهٔ ۲۰۰۳
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Complicity in Iraq:
How Deep?
As war with Iraq looms closer, postwar questions are receiving increasing attention. Senior defense officials have been addressing such issues frequently, and the White House held a press briefing yesterday on "Humanitarian Reconstruction" in Iraq. One of these issues concerns individuals who have been complicit in the crimes of Saddam
۲۵ فوریهٔ ۲۰۰۳
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Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
Lebanese Military Deployment to the South:
Understanding Syria's Defensive Tactics
In recent weeks, Syria has begun to alter its military tactics in Lebanon as a direct consequence of U.S. policy toward Iraq. Even without U.S. forces firing a shot against Saddam Husayn, leaders throughout the Middle East have already begun to position themselves for an eventual U.S.-led victory and the
۲۴ فوریهٔ ۲۰۰۳
Articles & Testimony
Fighting on All Fronts
A recent State Department security warning urged all Americans abroad to make sure their cars have a full tank of gas. The message itself was odd: Is there really a Foggy Bottom office responsible for the level of petrol in every expatriate's gas tank? But the emphasis on prevention was
۲۴ فوریهٔ ۲۰۰۳
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Iraq's al-Samoud:
A Missile with Great Possibilities
A dispute is rapidly growing between UN inspectors and Baghdad concerning Iraq's stockpile of al-Samoud missiles. The UN is expected to order the destruction of these missiles today. According to Hans Blix, executive chairman of the UN Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission, the fact that these missiles are capable of
۲۱ فوریهٔ ۲۰۰۳
Brief Analysis
Inside a Flawed 'Roadmap':
Truth or Consequences for the Peace Process
As one clock ticks toward a decision on the use of force to disarm Iraq, a second clock clicks toward the formal launching of the "roadmap" for Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking drafted by the Quartet (i.e., the United States, the European Union, Russia, and the United Nations). Barring some major external development—such
۲۰ فوریهٔ ۲۰۰۳
◆
Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Iran—Democratic Evolution or Revolution?
For many years, Western democracies have been pessimistic about the possibility of Iran becoming a secular democracy. Thus, Western policy toward Iran has long been characterized by a series of hesitant, inconsistent, and ad hoc decisions aimed at countering Iranian-sponsored terrorism, coupled with a relative lack of concern about the
۱۹ فوریهٔ ۲۰۰۳
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