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Brief Analysis
Iran's Nuclear Activities:
What Might the IAEA Learn?
Satellite photos published last week showed two sites in Iran that might house a civilian energy program and/or a nuclear weapons program. To determine exactly what purpose these sites serve would require an on-site inspection. Yet, inspections performed by international regulatory agencies are bound by certain limitations. What are the
۲۳ دسامبر ۲۰۰۲
Brief Analysis
Iraq's WMD Declaration:
How Important? How to Respond?
UN Security Council Resolution 1441 required Iraq to submit a full and complete declaration of all weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs and associated delivery systems by December 8. Given the stakes, and the fact that Iraq's previous declarations have been incomplete and misleading, the international community remains concerned, and
۲۰ دسامبر ۲۰۰۲
Articles & Testimony
Mapping Out Peace in the Mideast
In my 20 years involved in Middle East diplomacy, there have been many times when the effort toward peace appeared futile to the parties involved. But none of those times had the ring of hopelessness that I see in the region today. It is clear that Israelis, after two years
۲۰ دسامبر ۲۰۰۲
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Fatah-Hamas Relations:
Rapprochement or Ready to Rumble?
Parallel to the Palestinian armed struggle against Israel is a power struggle between Hamas and Fatah. Years of tensions have culminated in Gaza street clashes between the two organizations in recent weeks. An Egyptian-sponsored summit designed to achieve rapprochement between the two groups sputtered in Cairo last month, but talks
۱۹ دسامبر ۲۰۰۲
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Jonathan Schanzer
Brief Analysis
Powell on Democracy in the Muslim World:
Assessing the Latest Exposition of U.S. Policy
U.S. policy on promoting democracy in Muslim-majority countries took two steps forward and one step back last week with Secretary of State Colin Powell's major address unveiling the new Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI). On the positive side was the simple fact that democratization merited such cabinet-level focus, along with
۱۷ دسامبر ۲۰۰۲
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Middle Eastern Studies:
What Went Wrong?
MARTIN KRAMER Over the past twenty years, U.S. academic "experts" on the Middle East have failed to explain or anticipate change in the region they purport to study. This debacle is the result of their lack of intellectual distance, as well as the field's subversion by ideologically driven or faddish
۱۶ دسامبر ۲۰۰۲
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Martin Kramer
Brief Analysis
Israel's Strategy in Curbing Palestinian Violence
Many argue that Israel's current war on Palestinian terror lacks a coherent strategy. Indeed, the obvious mission—to reduce the amount of terror and the damage caused by it—cannot serve as an outline for the direction of the war. The first strategic goal of this war should be to change the
۱۳ دسامبر ۲۰۰۲
Articles & Testimony
Yes, the Turks Are Good Enough for Europe
Of the 13 candidate countries waiting to enter the European Union, 12 -- including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Malta -- are expected to be promised membership at today's meeting in Copenhagen. Only Turkey is likely to be left out. Ankara has been told that its human rights record does not
۱۳ دسامبر ۲۰۰۲
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
The War on Terror in the Shadow of the Iraq Crisis
BRUCE HOFFMAN As al-Qaeda has weakened, it has been forced to focus on "softer" (i.e., more accessible) targets rather than "hard" targets such as embassies or military installations. Nevertheless, the organization remains remarkably flexible, and its core leadership is still alive and at large. Moreover, Osama bin Laden has a
۱۲ دسامبر ۲۰۰۲
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Bruce Hoffman
Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Promoting Democracy in the Muslim World:
Assessing the Latest Exposition of U.S. Policy
In a thoughtful and measured address on December 4, State Department Policy Planning Director Richard Haass enunciated a new Bush administration policy on building "greater democracy" in the "Muslim world." Though it skirted several of the toughest policy issues (e.g., whether and how to promote democracy in inhospitable terrain like
۱۱ دسامبر ۲۰۰۲
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Turkey and the European Union at a Crossroads:
America's Role
According to the Financial Times, France and Germany will propose to the December 12–13 European Union (EU) summit that negotiations regarding Turkey's accession to the EU begin in July 2005, providing Ankara achieves further progress in democratic consolidation and human rights. If indeed Turkey is offered a conditional date for
۱۰ دسامبر ۲۰۰۲
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Saudi Financial Counterterrorism Measures (Part II):
Smokescreen or Substance?
Last week, Adel al-Jubeir, foreign policy advisor to Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, presided over a Washington press conference and the release of a report, "Initiatives and Actions Taken by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in the Financial Area to Combat Terrorism." The press conference marked the first time
۱۰ دسامبر ۲۰۰۲
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Saudi Financial Counterterrorism Measures (Part I):
The Impact in the Kingdom
Measures being taken by Saudi Arabia to stop terrorist financing have been welcomed by top U.S. officials. But the main test for the new rules announced on December 3 will be in Saudi Arabia itself, where zakat (giving to Islamic charities) is a religious duty and where measures that please
۹ دسامبر ۲۰۰۲
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
A Tale of Two Qatars
The Central Command of the U.S. military reports that the biennial "Internal Look" exercise is slated to begin Monday at the as-Sayliyah base in Qatar. The operation is designed to test U.S. military reactions to various threats in the Middle East. Qatar's strategic importance extends well beyond this exercise. The
۶ دسامبر ۲۰۰۲
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Jonathan Schanzer
Articles & Testimony
Tighten the Finger on the Trigger
Whenever he's been cornered over the last decade, Saddam Hussein has demonstrated his skill under pressure at stalling, dividing and diverting the West by appearing to cooperate. His strategy has been one of token progress cloaking substantial delays. "Time is working for us," he said in a rare interview last
۵ دسامبر ۲۰۰۲
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Keeping al-Qaeda Out of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Initial suspicions, select intelligence reports, and growing evidence have indicated that al-Qaeda played a role in Thursday's attacks on an Israeli-owned hotel and airliner in Mombasa, Kenya. If this evidence proves accurate, the attacks signal a shift in al-Qaeda's choice of targets and demonstrate a new danger to immediate U.S
۳ دسامبر ۲۰۰۲
Brief Analysis
The Quartet Roadmap, Take Two:
Still at Odds with Bush's June 24 Speech
Last Friday, while official Washington was still enjoying the Thanksgiving holiday break, the White House stealthily issued Presidential Determination 2003-04, whose first paragraph instructs the State Department to sanction the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and the Palestinian Authority (PA) for noncompliance with obligations stemming from the Oslo Accords. This was
۳ دسامبر ۲۰۰۲
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David Makovsky
Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Voices Who Speak for (and against) Us
From Indonesia to Pakistan, Muslims tuning into television after breaking Ramadan fasts this month are viewing a smorgasbord of U.S.-funded advertisements praising religious tolerance in America. Designed to highlight an appealing attribute of U.S. society, these 30-second spots seem harmless, though most likely ineffectual in countering anti-Americanism. On closer inspection
۱ دسامبر ۲۰۰۲
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
The November 2002 Elections and Turkey's New Political Era
On November 3, 2002, the Turks went to the polls to elect their new government. The elections ushered in a major realignment of the Turkish political landscape, bringing the Justice and Development Party (AKP)--a party with an Islamist pedigree--to power. The AKP received 34.2 percent of the vote, winning 363
۱ دسامبر ۲۰۰۲
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
The Political Economy of Middle East Terrorism
Political terrorism, often sponsored by states, has long been a major factor in Middle East politics. Terrorist groups' ability to act more frequently and effectively is closely linked to financing. Such patronage today, however, is proportionately less in the hands of state sponsors. While Iran and Syria continue to back
۱ دسامبر ۲۰۰۲
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Matthew Levitt
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