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Brief Analysis
New Paradigms in Arab Politics and the Peace Process
Background to the Current Violence There are five "macro" factors that explain the collapse of the Oslo process as we have known it: 1) the complementarity of violence and diplomacy in Palestinian strategy; 2) the U.S.-Israeli-Palestinian collusion on sidestepping any serious focus on compliance with past agreements before pursuing new
۳۱ اکتبر ۲۰۰۰
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Terrorism against the USS <em>Cole</em> and the Context in Yemen
Yemen embarked on a dramatic evolution after the 1990 merger of two remote, distinctly different, and conflict-ridden regimes (the former South Yemen and North Yemen). Unity has held, and Yemen is becoming more moderate and integrated into its region. However, a decade later the transition is incomplete. For the first
۲۶ اکتبر ۲۰۰۰
Articles & Testimony
Gadhafi's Failed African Ambitions
While the international media focus on the Israeli-Palestinian fighting in the West Bank and Gaza, at least 600 Africans have been killed in riots in Libya. The massacre of African immigrants may have wider reverberations and foster important changes in Libya's foreign policy. Since his return to the international stage
۲۶ اکتبر ۲۰۰۰
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Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
The Arab Summit Communiqué:
What Passes for Moderation...
Arab heads-of-state meeting this weekend added one more nail in the coffin of the Arab-Israeli peace process by lending full support to the ongoing Palestinian uprising, suspending all further political, diplomatic and economic links with Israel, and fueling the propaganda war by labeling Israeli leaders and military officers as "war
۲۳ اکتبر ۲۰۰۰
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Robert Satloff
David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Iraq:
A Blast from the Past?
By participating in the Arab summit that ended yesterday, Iraq made a giant step towards ending its political isolation; it had been frozen out of pan-Arab meetings since 1990. Importantly, increasing international cooperation with Baghdad is by no means the product of any Iraqi moderation. To the contrary: Iraqi president
۲۳ اکتبر ۲۰۰۰
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
Diplomacy or Descent into Disaster:
The Decision is Arafat's
By Saturday, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat will determine whether the Middle East inches closer to, or further from, the brink of regional conflict.This time period is critical because it comes between the two major summit meetings hosted in Egypt this week. On Tuesday, President Clinton announced an Israeli-Palestinian cease-fire after
۲۰ اکتبر ۲۰۰۰
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
The Draft Communique of the Arab Summit:
A Textual Analysis
Yesterday, the text of a draft communiqué for the impending Arab summit, principally drafted by host Egypt, was leaked to the Beirut press. In an interview about this document, Egyptian foreign minister Amre Moussa indicated that this draft was accurate but preliminary. If this version emerges from the summit relatively
۲۰ اکتبر ۲۰۰۰
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David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Arab League Summit Conferences, 1964–2000
For the first time in nearly five years, heads of state and representatives from the 22 members of the Arab League will convene for a summit meeting in Cairo. This will be a critical meeting not only because of the regional tensions steaming from Israeli-Palestinian violence but also because Iraq-and
۱۹ اکتبر ۲۰۰۰
Brief Analysis
President Clinton's Sharm al-Shaykh Declaration:
A Textual Analysis
President Clinton announced bare-bones understandings today on Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire-plus-disengagement. The test of success of this understanding will be in the swift and full implementation of its objectives on the ground, with today's shooting at a Jewish neighborhood in Jerusalem boding ill for the success of this process. Even if fully
۱۷ اکتبر ۲۰۰۰
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
The Escalating Crisis in the Middle East:
Prospects and Policy (Part II)
On October 13, 2000, David Makovsky, senior fellow at The Washington Institute and former editor of the Jerusalem Post, addressed the Institute's Special Policy Forum along with Robert Satloff. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. Read a summary of Dr. Satloff's remarks. The Grand Deal on peace
۱۷ اکتبر ۲۰۰۰
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
The Escalating Crisis in the Middle East:
Prospects and Policy (Part I)
On October 13, 2000, Robert Satloff addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum along with David Makovsky. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. Read a summary of Mr. Makovsky's remarks. General Context The last two weeks have been symptomatic of the different sort of Middle East the
۱۶ اکتبر ۲۰۰۰
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Turkey:
The Armenian Genocide Resolution and Iraq Policy
If passed, a non-binding resolution in the U.S. House of Representatives calling upon the U.S. government to recognize the "Armenian genocide" as historical fact will sour U.S.-Turkish relations at a time when bilateral ties are more vulnerable than they have been for years and when Turkish support for U.S. policies
۱۶ اکتبر ۲۰۰۰
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Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Hizballah's Kidnapping:
An Opportunity to Test Bashar al-Asad
The kidnapping of IDF soldiers from the Israel-Lebanon border presents Washington with its first opportunity to test the intentions and capabilities of Syria's new and inexperienced president, Bashar al-Asad.
۱۳ اکتبر ۲۰۰۰
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Yossi Baidatz
Brief Analysis
A Lockerbie Trial Brief:
The Tale of a Defector
The Lockerbie trial restarts on Tuesday, October 17, after a three-week recess. This recess was requested by the prosecution, who in a puzzling move, asked for time to investigate new evidence of "considerable sensitivity." Prior to the adjournment, the prosecution had introduced its star witness, a double agent with first-hand
۱۳ اکتبر ۲۰۰۰
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Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
The Hizballah Kidnapping and the Potential for a 'Second Front'
Hizballah's capture of three IDF soldiers in the disputed Lebanese-Israeli eastern Har Dov/Shebaa Farms border area Saturday marked the most serious outbreak of IDF-Hizballah hostilities since the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon in May. The well-planned and executed ambush underscored the continued threat to Israel posed by Hizballah's highly-skilled guerrilla
۱۲ اکتبر ۲۰۰۰
Brief Analysis
Egypt's Parliamentary Vote:
A Democracy Test amid Regional Tension
As rumors swirl regarding a possible Arab League summit meeting in Cairo later this month, preparations are underway for a major event on the Egyptian domestic scene: the holding of parliamentary elections. This vote, set to occur over three stages from October 18 to November 14, will be the first
۱۱ اکتبر ۲۰۰۰
Articles & Testimony
Avoiding a War
After eight years of Herculean effort to build Arab-Israeli peace, President Clinton faces the cruel irony that the level of violence in the Middle East may be higher when he leaves office than when he entered it. The region not only faces the prospect of the collapse of the peace
۹ اکتبر ۲۰۰۰
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Inside the Fatah Tanzim:
A Primer
As violence continues to flare in parts of Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza, attention is increasingly focused on the Palestinian group responsible for much of the rioting and confrontation--the Fatah Tanzim. Just yesterday, the leader of the Tanzim, Marwan Barghouthi, ridiculed the ceasefire reached in Paris as useless. That
۶ اکتبر ۲۰۰۰
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David Schenker
Brief Analysis
From Riots to Diplomacy:
Rethinking Principles, Assessing Options
The fact that U.S. and Israeli officials--not Yasir Arafat--announced that the Palestinian leader had ordered a halt to violence in the West Bank and Gaza highlights the failure of the U.S.-led summit meeting in Paris. This underscores the prospect that the al-Aqsa Intifada--as Palestinians have termed the week-long spasm of
۶ اکتبر ۲۰۰۰
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
The 'Battle for Jerusalem':
Assessing Strategy and Tactics
Uneven press coverage and shocking television footage have skewed analysis of the ongoing "Battle for Jerusalem"--the week-old explosion of violence that has swept from the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif, to the West Bank, Gaza and Arab population centers in Israel. Seen in political and historical context, current events actually highlight a
۵ اکتبر ۲۰۰۰
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Michael Eisenstadt
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