Policy Analysis

The decline in world oil prices has hit Saudi Arabia hard. The benchmark Saudi crude, Arabian light, fell from $17 per barrel in 1997 to little more than $11 in 1998. Gross domestic product (GDP) declined in 1998 to about $125 billion. That translates into a per capita income of

Subsequent to the U.S.-led coalition's victory in Operation Desert Storm and Iraq's expulsion from Kuwait, the United States and the UN instituted a policy of "broad containment." The objectives of this policy were to keep Saddam weak politically and limit his military freedom of action in the region by supporting

Religious and ethnic minorities have significantly influenced political, economic, cultural, and ideological developments in the Middle East for the last two centuries. This Policy Paper focuses on Egypt, Sudan, and the countries of the Fertile Crescent, some of which have minority populations of 35 percent or more. The relationships of

During the Cold War, the United States used several intelligence platforms to help secure its interest in the Middle East. Reconnaissance aircraft and satellites played a crucial role in various Arab-Israeli wars, the Iran-Iraq War, and Operation Desert Storm. In fact, UAVs were first used by the United States on

Last week's Operation Desert Fox by British and American air forces against Iraq was more or less comparable in size to Operation Deliberate Force against Serbian forces in 1995. The 1991 Operation Desert Storm was much larger, but it included a tremendous effort against Iraqi ground forces that was not

Barring some last minute parliamentary leger demain by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, today almost surely marks the beginning of an election campaign in Israel, with the actual vote probably to be held in April 1999. Although prognostications are premature, the campaign is likely to witness an explosion of candidates for

The current bombing campaign against Iraq is clearly not going to solve all U.S. problems with Iraq. The issue of the day is then: how can the bombing be used to advance long-term U.S. goals? Ratchet up the Pressure. The United States seems intent on convincing Saddam Husayn that the

ROBERT SATLOFF The Peace Process: President Clinton's visit is generating Palestinian euphoria and Israeli ambivalence. The huge strategic gain for the Palestinians -- de facto U.S. recognition of the legitimacy of their aspirations to statehood -- is the product of a studied campaign by PA Chairman Yasir Arafat to do

On November 3, 1998, Patrick Clawson, director for research at The Washington Institute, and Zoe Danon Gedal, a Soref research fellow at the Institute, addressed the Institute's Special Policy Forum on the topic of their forthcoming book Dollars and Diplomacy: The Impact of U.S. Economic Initiatives on Arab-Israeli Negotiations. The

On November 24, 1998, Jon Alterman presented the findings of his new Washington Institute Policy Paper, New Media, New Politics? From Satellite Television to the Internet in the Arab World, at the Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Alterman directs Middle East activities in the U.S. Institute of Peace's Research and

As President Clinton prepares to depart later this week for Gaza to deliver an unprecedented address before members of the Palestine National Council, the looming issues of Palestinian Authority (PA) compliance and implementation of the security provisions detailed in the Wye River Memorandum have once again become the focus of

The Clinton administration's Iraq policy has been to "keep Saddam in his box" by doing everything possible to keep U.N. inspectors and international economic sanctions in place. But actually Saddam has boxed us in. True, the sanctions must be having some effect, because Saddam complains about them so much. Indeed

The relationships between the United States and its allies in the Middle East are, for the most part, founded on national security considerations. As a result, trends that might affect the readiness and capabilities of the U.S. armed forces or Washington's ability to use force effectively have potentially far-reaching implications

Three factors were cited by U.S. officials as reasons not to strike Iraq, none of which is convincing. First was the fear that air strikes would signal the death knell of UNSCOM. In fact, experience shows that Saddam has repeatedly backed down when threatened, and does not take risks when

Read a summary of remarks given by the son of Azerbaijan's then-president at a 1998 Institute Policy Forum. The speaker, Ilham Aliyev, would succeed his father as president of Azerbaijan in 2003.

The November 24 inauguration of General Emile Lahoud as Lebanon's president is generating optimism in a country which, for fifteen violent years, bled itself relentlessly. The civil war of 1975-1990 blackened Lebanon's name internationally and gutted the country internally. Lebanon's "reconstruction" has entailed considerable corruption and public indebtedness, as well

When Israeli Foreign Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian chief negotiator Mahmud Abbas met to discuss final status negotiations this week, one key player was absent: Jordan. But if the Jordanians' role was essential to bring the Wye River talks to closure, their participation in reaching a solution to the more

The arrest of Workers' Party of Kurdistan (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan in Italy last week was a rare example of the capture of a major terrorist group leader. In contrast, an Italian court's decision today to release him under a loose form of "house arrest"is widely seen as a prelude

Geopolitical considerations have determined Syria's regional alliances. The underlying concern for every Syrian leader in making these alliances has been the attainment and the retention of power. No Syrian leader has been more successful at reaching this goal than Hafiz al-Asad. What makes this achievement even more impressive is that

On November 5, 1998, Gal Luft, a lieutenant colonel in the reserves of the Israel Defense Forces and a research associate of The Washington Institute, addressed the Institute's Special Policy Forum on the findings of his new Policy Focus Research Memorandum, The Palestinian Security Services: Between Police and Army. The