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Brief Analysis
Prospects for Religious and Ethnic Conflict in the Middle East
MOSHE MA'OZ Over the years, religious and ethnic minorities in the Middle East have influenced political, social, and economic developments. Yet disputes over minorities have also caused tension. According to Arab scholar Sa'd a-din Ibrahim, more damage and devastation has been inflicted on the Middle East by religious and ethnic
۳ فوریهٔ ۱۹۹۷
In-Depth Reports
Revolution at a Crossroads:
Iran's Domestic Politics and Regional Ambitions
In their seventeen years in power, the clerics who led the 1979 Iranian revolution have concentrated on consolidating their rule and implementing Ayatollah Khomeini's revolutionary ideology. Thus far, they have proven fairly successful in the former -- Khomeini's death in June 1989 was marked by stability and continuity, and presidential
۱ فوریهٔ ۱۹۹۷
Brief Analysis
King Hussein, Hebron, and the Jordan-Israel Relationship
King Hussein's contribution to closing the Hebron deal reaffirms his special role as an Arab leader that Benjamin Netanyahu and Yasser Arafat both talk with and listen to. His optimism after leaving a pivotal Tel Aviv meeting with Netanyahu shortly before the deal was concluded -- "I leave here confident
۲۹ ژانویهٔ ۱۹۹۷
◆
Lori Plotkin Boghardt
Brief Analysis
Identifying Loopholes in the Fight against Terrorism
Last week's Washington Post highlighted a major loophole in U.S. anti-terrorism sanctions: an exemption to the 1996 Anti-Terrorism Act that specifically authorizes U.S. financial transactions with Sudan and Syria, two countries officially designated as state sponsors of terrorism. However, this loophole is just one of several avenues through which U.S
۲۸ ژانویهٔ ۱۹۹۷
Brief Analysis
The Hebron Agreement:
A Closer Look
The weeks between the Hebron agreement and the first phase of Israel's "further redeployment" in the West Bank have already produced an uncommon still in the Israeli-Palestinian relationship, with tourism officials undertaking a joint marketing scheme under the motto: "Peace -- It's a Beautiful Sight to See." In this critical
۲۷ ژانویهٔ ۱۹۹۷
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Alan Makovsky
Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Iraq and UNSCOM:
A Crucial Test for U.S. Policy
Four years ago this month, Iraqi President Saddam Husayn tried to strengthen his hand against President-elect Clinton by rebuffing UN weapons inspectors, spiriting anti-ship missiles out of a former Iraqi naval base in Kuwait, and challenging no-fly zones in northern and southern Iraq. As he begins his second term, President
۲۱ ژانویهٔ ۱۹۹۷
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
The United States and Egypt:
Stress and Distress
President Clinton's rather terse "thank you" to Hosni Mubarak following the signing of the Hebron agreement in contrast to the warm praise for Jordan's King Hussein is only the latest sign of tension in the U.S.-Egypt relationship. While this partnership has always had its share of problems, the two sides
۱۶ ژانویهٔ ۱۹۹۷
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Kenneth Pollack
Brief Analysis
The Oslo Process:
Hebron and Beyond
Today's agreement is actually a package that includes: a protocol on security in Hebron and Israel's redeployment, a U.S. "Note for the Record" (reproduced below), U.S. letters of assurance, and a U.S. plan of assistance. Moreover, the accord is comprised of three different elements. It deals first with the present
۱۵ ژانویهٔ ۱۹۹۷
Brief Analysis
Hebron As 'Oslo III':
Implications for the Peace Process
The still-imminent agreement on Israeli redeployment in Hebron, though just technically a protocol detailing the implementation of one article of the Oslo II accord, has begun to assume the magnitude of "Oslo III." Not only does it represent the first-ever agreement between a Likud-led government and the Palestinians, but by
۶ ژانویهٔ ۱۹۹۷
◆
Ehud Yaari
Brief Analysis
Likud and the Oslo Process:
Implications of a Hebron Accord
If negotiators overcome eleventh-hour Palestinian demands and conclude an agreement on Hebron redeployment, this accord would mark a milestone in the Middle East peace process: the first signed agreement between a Likud government and the Palestinians. With significant U.S. encouragement, the two sides will have managed to overcome the intense
۳ ژانویهٔ ۱۹۹۷
Brief Analysis
Jordan:
Between Israel and Iraq
Jordan's position as a bridge between the Levant and the Persian Gulf, coupled with her small size and lack of natural resources, have created its unique geopolitical role in the Middle East. Despite being surrounded by powerful neighbors, Jordan consistently exercises an independent approach to achieve its national interests. Perhaps
۳۰ دسامبر ۱۹۹۶
Brief Analysis
Turkey:
Erbakan at Six Months
Necmettin Erbakan, who holds power with a bare five-vote majority, nevertheless has a surprisingly strong grip on the prime ministry. Although constrained from implementing the more radical aspects of his foreign policy agenda, Erbakan has marked Turkish policy with a firm stamp of orientation toward Islamic states, particularly radicals like
۲۷ دسامبر ۱۹۹۶
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Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Terror on the Horizon?
Renewed Activism by Anti-Peace Radicals
As efforts continue to broker a long-sought Israeli-Palestinian deal on Hebron redeployment by year's end, Middle East radicals and rejectionists from secular groups like the Damascus-based Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) to Islamic militant organizations like Hamas and Islamic Jihad appear to be energizing their activity and
۲۴ دسامبر ۱۹۹۶
Brief Analysis
Egypt, the Peace Process, and U.S. Regional Interests
This weekend's effort by Special Middle East Coordinator Dennis Ross to broker a conclusion to the glacial Israeli-Palestinian negotiations on Hebron replaces the mediation effort that never was -- the mission by Egyptian Foreign Minister Amre Moussa. Earlier this month, in a sign of growing anxiety over the Hebron stalemate
۲۳ دسامبر ۱۹۹۶
◆
Kenneth Pollack
Brief Analysis
Saudi Arabia:
Politics, Succession, and Opposition
King Fahd is seventy-five years old and feeling the effects of his age. He has been suffering from memory loss and limited powers of concentration for several years, and certainly since his stroke last year. After that stroke, he temporarily appointed Crown Prince Abdullah regent, but resumed his duties earlier
۱۸ دسامبر ۱۹۹۶
◆
Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Tightening the Rules on Iraqi Oil Sales
For the United States, supporting UN Security Council Resolution 986 is a gamble. Washington hopes that the "oil-for-food" deal will be a trap that will reduce pressure to lift the rest of Iraqi sanctions, thereby thwarting Saddam Hussein's strategy to win the end of sanctions by playing on international sympathy
۱۲ دسامبر ۱۹۹۶
◆
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Past, Present, and Future of the Oslo Process:
View from the Labor Party
When Likud won Israel's May 1996 elections, Netanyahu announced that he would implement the Oslo agreement. However, the prime minister appears to be undecided as to how to do so. He is trying to muddle through the peace process, gauging American and Arab reactions before determining a course of action
۱۱ دسامبر ۱۹۹۶
Brief Analysis
Saddam Husayn Conquers Irbil:
Causes and Implications
While U.S. officials were in London on Friday evening, resting between mediation sessions with representatives of both main Kurdish factions, Saddam Husayn ordered his panzers into Irbil. The few Kurdish and Iraqi National Congress defenders of Irbil were overwhelmed by the more than 40,000 members of the three Republican Guard
۱۰ دسامبر ۱۹۹۶
Articles & Testimony
Target Iraq's Republican Guard
America's inability to devise an effective response to Saddam Husayn's recent reassertion of government control over parts of northern Iraq has spurred calls for a reassessment of Washington's policy toward Baghdad. Some analysts call for the breakup of Iraq, to end the threat Saddam poses to the region and to
۱ دسامبر ۱۹۹۶
Brief Analysis
The Cairo Conference in Perspective:
Lessons for the Peace Process
With the dust clearing on the public relations "spin" suggested by competing Arab, Israeli and American observers of the Middle East/North Africa Economic Conference held in Cairo two weeks ago, a detached assessment of that now-annual event would underscore the surprising durability of new regional institutions at times of political
۲۶ نوامبر ۱۹۹۶
◆
Alan Makovsky
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