Policy Analysis

A moderate run-up in oil prices in 1989 has led many oil forecasters to project large price hikes through the 1990s and a far more powerful OPEC cartel; in short another oil shock in the mid-1990s. Recent warnings from forecasters are reminiscent of the alarmist—and mistaken—predictions that followed the oil

The Arab world is approaching a historic crossroad. One path leads toward domestic liberalization, regional moderation, and peace with Israel. The other path contains the prospect of continued tyranny, external adventurism, and, eventually, war. These competing visions of the Arab future have become embodied in the policies of Egypt and

Superpower relations in the Middle East is an especially timely and provocative topic -- timely because superpower relations clearly are changing, and provocative because the consequences from those changes are far from self-evident. On one hand, the lessening of the tensions between the superpowers, especially the declining role of the

Keynote addresses by Jeane Kirkpatrick, Les Aspin, and Dan Quayle. With Vitaly Naumkin, Reuven Merhav, and others.

We have been living through a political earthquake. A year ago Erich Honecker was still heading East Germany, and people were talking about the solid infrastructure of the GDR. Milos Jakes was still ruling in Czechoslovakia, and it was said that the communist party had a strong system of control

King Hussein’s historic decision to sever Jordan’s legal and administrative ties with the West Bank in July 1988 was the latest move in his ongoing struggle with the PLO to shape the future status of the occupied territories. But Jordan’s geopolitical stake in the Palestine question, as well as the

As totalitarianism crumbles in Eastern Europe, a fascinating pattern has begun to emerge. Hand-in-hand with promises of political and economic reform, new governments in one Warsaw Pact country after another have declared a third, more surprising, objective: the re-establishment of full diplomatic relations with Israel. One notable expression of this

Introduction On May 14, 1989, the Israeli government announced its proposal to hold elections in the West Bank and Gaza Strip as a mechanism for initiating negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. Although many rushed to dismiss the initiative, it has become the focal point of efforts aimed at advancing

The revolution now taking place in the technology of war is one with potentially dramatic implications for the Arab-Israeli military balance. In this important book. two Middle East military experts assess the impact of technological innovation on Israeli and Arab military forces. They concentrate primarily on Israel and Syria, since

Executive Summary Faced with pressure from the uprising leadership in the territories, by gains of rival Islamic and leftist groups and by Jordan's disengagement from the West Bank, Yasser Arafat is seeking approval for a Palestinian declaration of independence at the Algiers PNC meeting. But will the PLO actually achieve

The superpower summit meeting in the Mediterranean will no doubt be dominated by talk of Eastern Europe. But while in the neighborhood of the Middle East, President Bush and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev should also take a few minutes to discuss Moscow's readiness to cooperate in advancing the Arab-Israeli peace

Though the impact of the Soviet Union’s “new thinking” has been less dramatic in the Middle East than in other regions of Third World conflict, its effects are nonetheless beginning to be felt. An important development in this regard has been signs of decreasing Soviet support for Syria, the Arab

Hungary recently became the first Warsaw Pact country to restore full diplomatic relations with Israel after having severed them during the 1967 Middle East war. Budapest's decision illustrated the dramatic changes within Hungary and focused attention on another issue: When will the Soviet Union follow suit? After all, it was

The foreign hostages in Lebanon are living reminders of the challenge posed to the West by Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed movement of fundamentalist Lebanese Shi’ites. Hezbollah has conducted its operational campaign with a great measure of strategic and tactical savvy. Yet its ideologues understand and represent its struggle as a war

In the last decade, Syria has forcefully opposed U.S.-supported peace initiatives for Lebanon and the Arab-Israeli conflict. Syria’s inflexibility has persuaded many observers that little can be done to influence its president, Hafez al-Assad. In fact, much can be done once his vulnerabilities are understood. In this Policy Paper, Patrick

Keynote addresses by John Kelly and Dennis Ross. With Leslie Gelb, Joseph Sisco, and Samuel Lewis.

The American government is intent on trying to bring the parties in the Arab-Israeli dispute closer together, to talk, to negotiate and to resolve differences. President Bush has reaffirmed this commitment on several occasions and Secretary of State James Baker described our goals eloquently in his speech on "principles and

Executive Summary If implemented, Israel's proposal for elections in the West Bank and Gaza could create new opportunities to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Elections could produce Palestinian representatives with whom Israel is willing to negotiate and, if conducted in a democratic manner, they could also bolster each side's confidence in

In the summer of 1982, as Israeli troops and artillery laid siege to Beirut, the international community wasted no time in demanding that the United States act to restrain its ally. Now, seven years later, with Syrian troops inflicting what is by all accounts a much more devastating horror on

Executive Summary Israel's proposal for Palestinian elections stems from a realization that the status quo is not tenable and a fear that the intifada could escalate to a more violent pattern of confrontation. Despite continued controversy over its details, the elections proposal indicates several new elements in Israel's position: recognition