Policy Analysis

The KDP leadership’s power-sharing status quo may be in jeopardy.

Absent a policy shift in Beirut, Lebanon will remain a satrapy of Iran, and the current window of opportunity to eradicate the Hezbollah threat will close.

Despite significant vulnerabilities, the redundancies in Iran’s energy production would limit the effects of any strike, while the consequences for Israeli, Gulf, and global energy markets could be significant.

In discussing missile defense cooperation with risk-averse Gulf partners, Washington needs to realistically address the specifics of Iran’s latest attack on Israel, including the degree to which defenses were penetrated.

Border security is chiefly a matter of state sovereignty, so the international community must pressure Lebanese officials to take essential political and security steps even before attempting to negotiate ceasefire terms with Israel.

Ankara’s push for “soft recentralization” in Iraq will likely include more intensive efforts to establish the Development Road and prioritize Baghdad’s interests, though without abandoning the Kurdistan Region.

The massive losses suffered by two key members of Iran’s “axis of resistance” create an opening to transform more than just Gaza and Lebanon.

Respondents to an extensive new poll shared remarkably independent views on issues ranging from Hamas’s success in the Gaza war to the likelihood of Israel’s collapse.

Despite massive failures leading up to the Gaza war and numerous controversies since then, Israel has made important achievements—now it must connect them to a clearly stated set of realistic strategic goals.

Israel’s campaign has greatly diminished Hezbollah, presenting a chance for Beirut to end the war and push back against the group and its Iranian sponsors—if Lebanese elites are up to the task.

Having observed two decades of instability across its southern borders and anticipating U.S. withdrawals, Ankara is planning steps to end the volatility, including potentially wide-ranging agreements with the Assad regime.

The Yemeni group has strengthened its capabilities and aggressiveness to the point where it may be less vulnerable to international pressure than its Iranian patron.

Concerns over the regime’s longstanding R&D on weaponized anesthetics and other PBAs have become more pressing given the high risk of transfer to various hostile proxies.

Three former U.S. officials discuss the challenges—and opportunities—that will greet the next administration in year two of the post-October 7 era.

At a recent event in Iran, the leader of the key Iraqi militia Asaib Ahl al-Haq was strategically positioned in a place of honor directly behind the Supreme Leader.

Although the former jihadist standard-bearer has failed to inspire attacks during the Gaza war, its efforts to exploit rising anti-Israel sentiment and train a new generation of terrorists in Afghanistan should not be taken lightly.

The group’s ability to reconstitute its military power will depend on Iran restocking its arsenal; in the meantime, it will likely attempt more terrorist attacks abroad.

The strange little militia Kataib al-Mustafa announced itself to great fanfare in Basra, and judging by its media reception, it has an important mystery backer.

The group’s false assessment of Israel’s wartime fragility is proving more costly by the day.

By building on the death of an Iran-backed terrorist leader, President Biden has the opportunity to leave the Middle East better today than it was on October 8, which is no small achievement.