Policy Analysis

In successive polls, approval of the United States within the Sunni Lebanese community has rated consistently high—a fact that stands in contrast with low numbers in other Sunni Arab populations. Certainly, part of the discrepancy reflects internal Lebanese politics. Sunni Lebanese view Washington, together with Riyadh and Paris, as backers

A little-publicized fact about Iran is its ethnic diversity: though Turks and Persians are the largest ethnic groups within Iran, Iran’s eight major non-Persian ethnicities represent approximately half of the country’s total population. Each of these minority groups—Ahwazis, Kurds, Turks, Balochis, Turkmen, Qashqais, Caspeans, and the Lor tribes—collectively account for

After U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s last visit to the Middle East, Cairo has attempted to appear aligned with Gulf States’ efforts against the Iranian regime, at least rhetorically. Egypt’s participation in the Warsaw summit against Iran—which Pompeo had publicly announced in Cairo one month earlier—was perhaps intended to

A trip to Iraqi Kurdistan last week, my first since the abortive referendum on independence there in October 2017, revealed a political landscape at once utterly different and eerily familiar. In the former category is the new, widespread understanding—both among the leaders I met with and among their younger followers

“Takeaways” is the classic Washington term used to encapsulate the outcomes of high-profile diplomatic gatherings. Last week, I was invited to moderate a panel at the “Ministerial to Promote a Future of Peace and Security in the Middle East,” cohosted in Warsaw by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Polish

With its historical, cultural, and civilizational depth, combined with a deft wielding of soft and hard power, Iran currently feels that it has the upper hand in Iraq. Moreover, Iranian strategy has experienced an important development: it has moved from calling for popular revolutions against political regimes to intervening in

‘Iran has no objective interest in pursuing an anti-U.S. and anti-Israel policy, and would be amenable to a radical compromise, provided that its stature as the regional super-power is duly recognized.’ This is the blunt message communicated through various channels, including Iranian scholars associated with Tehran’s policy community during chance

Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s recent visit to Baghdad has pushed the American project to counter Iranian influence in Iraq back to square one. The visit came just after U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s tour in Baghdad and several other Middle Eastern capitals, through which he sought to

With protests originally sparking in July 2018, Basra continues to experience sporadic demonstrations.

Characterizations of U.S. engagement in the Middle East as merely chaotic ignore—often deliberately—that a course correction in U.S. policy is indeed taking place. Underneath the U.S. administration’s multiple, even conflicting messages communicated to friends and foes in the Middle East, the outlines of a coherent policy are potentially discernible. Washington

Just as President Trump’s announced decision to withdraw troops from Syria has garnered intense analysis from American media, the media outlets of regional actors involved in Syria are similarly occupied discussing likely scenarios for the country's future. In surveying the media responses of Iran and Israel—countries who have indirectly clashed

The current drive for the “reconstruction” of Syria—spearheaded by the Damascus regime and its backers in Russia and Iran—is not a legitimate effort of rebuilding and relief, despite recent consideration from regional and international actors. Rather, the proffered “reconstruction” efforts promise the continuation of the Syrian war by new means

The Iranian regime has adopted a clearly-defined political strategy through which it aims to spread its ideology and strengthen its influence beyond Iran’s geographic borders. The regime views the triple-pronged approach of culture, media, and intelligence as an effective tool that will allow it to win the hearts and minds

As the Assad-Iran-Russian axis prepares for the "last battle in Idlib," the question arises: what does the ‘day after’ look like for the region when events in Syria finally come to a conclusion? It is clear that Iran’s proxy forces would prefer to create a new Syria in accordance with

The United States of America has invested significant time and effort in Iraq over the last fifteen years, yet the Iraqi political process continues to falter. The damage of the country’s limited adoption of democratic values is continually demonstrated in each election cycle. This is especially complicated by the outsized

As popular demonstrations in the south escalate further each summer, the next Iraqi government should address the root causes of this unrest. Otherwise, it risks the existence of the post-2003 system. One such cause is corruption, which could be addressed by adopting several anti-corruption measures, such as e-governance, one-stop-shops, encouragement

Last July, widespread protests broke out throughout southern Iraq as a result of deteriorating services, a lack of electricity, poor water quality, and increasing unemployment. While demonstrations are common during the hot summer months in southern and central Iraq, this year’s protests are markedly more widespread and have continued to

While propaganda plays a major role in forming local and international public opinion, it may also be deployed as a tool of “soft deterrence,” designed to tilt the calculations and military strategies of other countries in another country’s favor. Iran’s financial investment in its media presence, with dozens of satellite

Almost forty years after its inception, the project of the Islamic Republic has failed. Ayatollah Khamenei has in essence admitted that an Islamic state is not complete in Iran. Nor is Iranian society unequivocally Islamic in the manner that the revolution intended: rather the Iranian government merely follows and applies

The continually escalating war of words between Iran and the United States suggests that the Middle East will have much at stake in the coming months as sanctions take effect. The U.S. administration has made repeated assertions that “regime change” and “military action” against Iran are not on the agenda