Policy Analysis

Three factors were cited by U.S. officials as reasons not to strike Iraq, none of which is convincing. First was the fear that air strikes would signal the death knell of UNSCOM. In fact, experience shows that Saddam has repeatedly backed down when threatened, and does not take risks when

Read a summary of remarks given by the son of Azerbaijan's then-president at a 1998 Institute Policy Forum. The speaker, Ilham Aliyev, would succeed his father as president of Azerbaijan in 2003.

The November 24 inauguration of General Emile Lahoud as Lebanon's president is generating optimism in a country which, for fifteen violent years, bled itself relentlessly. The civil war of 1975-1990 blackened Lebanon's name internationally and gutted the country internally. Lebanon's "reconstruction" has entailed considerable corruption and public indebtedness, as well

The arrest of Workers' Party of Kurdistan (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan in Italy last week was a rare example of the capture of a major terrorist group leader. In contrast, an Italian court's decision today to release him under a loose form of "house arrest"is widely seen as a prelude

When Israeli Foreign Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian chief negotiator Mahmud Abbas met to discuss final status negotiations this week, one key player was absent: Jordan. But if the Jordanians' role was essential to bring the Wye River talks to closure, their participation in reaching a solution to the more

Geopolitical considerations have determined Syria's regional alliances. The underlying concern for every Syrian leader in making these alliances has been the attainment and the retention of power. No Syrian leader has been more successful at reaching this goal than Hafiz al-Asad. What makes this achievement even more impressive is that

On November 5, 1998, Gal Luft, a lieutenant colonel in the reserves of the Israel Defense Forces and a research associate of The Washington Institute, addressed the Institute's Special Policy Forum on the findings of his new Policy Focus Research Memorandum, The Palestinian Security Services: Between Police and Army. The

On November 10, 1998, Gen. Fahad al-Amir, deputy chief of staff of the Kuwaiti Armed Forces, addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. Read a full transcript. Kuwait's participation in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is strong and committed. Members of

The Clinton administration is debating how to respond to Iraq's August 5 limits on the United Nations Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM) and its October 31 cessation of any cooperation with UNSCOM. To understand why force is being considered again requires examining each of the major problems facing the United

In response to last week's Hamas suicide attack on a school bus of Jewish children in Gaza, the Palestinian Authority (PA) has inaugurated its most comprehensive security crackdown since the aftermath of the wave of suicide bombings in February and March 1996. Shaykh Ahmed Yassin, founder and spiritual leader of

After years of running from the legacy of the last Southern Democrat to serve in the White House, Bill Clinton follows in Jimmy Carter's footsteps this week by hosting the first Middle East peace summit in the United States in 20 years. As at Camp David in 1978, the outcome

On October 26, 1998, Zeev Schiff, military editor of Israel's Haaretz newspaper and a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute, and Abbas Kelidar, consulting adviser to the Office of Jordanian Crown Prince Hassan and a visiting fellow at the Institute, addressed the Institute's Special Policy Forum, along with Robert Satloff

In the last decade, a revolution has swept through the Arab world. Long accustomed to exercising control over what their publics knew and when they knew it, Arab governments are finding that new technologies based on satellites and telecommunications have given rise to new kinds of regional media that are

The State Department's 1997 Patterns of Global Terrorism report lists five Middle Eastern states as sponsors of international terrorism: Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Sudan. The report does not enumerate the specific actions that earned each state inclusion on the list, however. This Research Note is intended as a complement

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Some Middle East governments expressed satisfaction at the Wye agreement. For instance: "Describing the Middle East peace process as a historical opportunity in order to protect peace and stability in the region, Turkey expresses gratification over the agreement which she believes in that it will overcome the deadlock in the

Concern about potential terrorist attacks from Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda organization have led the U.S. government to suspend activities or increase security at embassies from West Africa to Europe to Central Asia. To what extent might Bin Laden followers also target the Arab-Israeli peace process, which has

The issue of Caspian Sea oil is often entangled with many political considerations. In determining the actual importance of Caspian Sea oil, however, one needs to determine how much oil there is, how to extract the oil, and finally, how to get it to market. The answers to these question

On October 26, 1998, Washington Institute executive director Robert Satloff addressed the Institute's Special Policy Forum, along with Zeev Schiff and Abbas Kelidar. The following is an expanded version of his remarks. Read a summary of Mr. Schiff and Mr. Kelidar's remarks. History will judge the Wye River Memorandum by

Is the Wye River Memorandum mediated by President Clinton another Camp David -- a historic breakthrough toward Middle East peace -- or a technical accord tying up the loose ends of previous unimplemented agreements? The answer is "both." The rustic plantation site and the near-constant involvement of the president offered