Policy Analysis

One of the most controversial statements during this crisis was Secretary of State James Baker's call for a new Persian Gulf security framework. If Saddam Hussein and/or Iraq's military might survive this confrontation, local states will face continued threats. For them to cooperate with the United States now they must

Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze is using the Gulf crisis as a catalyst for farreaching changes in Moscow's Middle East policy. Moscow is putting the emphasis on improving relations with the West and with the wealthy Persian Gulf states at the expense of Arab radicals. Shevardnadze's UN speech was remarkable

Impatience and doubts about the slow-working process of diplomacy and economic sanctions has led many to call for quick military action against Iraq. While the United States could eventually prevail in such a conflict, the anticipated high cost in American casualties will make President Bush less eager to pursue a

By the time Washington finishes arguing about who lost Kuwait, a new debate may have to be joined about the failure of U.S. policy toward Jordan. The Kuwait crisis is drawing King Hussein into Saddam Hussein's orbit with profound consequences for the stability of the Middle East heartland and the

Saddam Hussein's threats to attack Israel or Saudi oil fields if sanctions begin to strangle him must be taken seriously by defenders of those purported targets but are most likely bluffs to forestall the mounting pressure on Iraq and raise his subjects' morale. It is not clear that Iraq has

The Fifth Annual Policy Conference of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, held September 14-16, brought out a number of new ideas and perspectives on the Persian Gulf crisis. These included important points about administration strategy, the attitudes of Arab states and Israel, the time frame for various tactics

On September 14-16, 1990, The Washington Institute held its fifth annual Policy Conference at the Wye Plantation. The following is an edited transcript of one speaker's remarks. Read a summary of the full conference. The situation inside Kuwait is indescribable. Iraq has isolated Kuwait from the civilized world; the 1.5

Keynote addresses by Moshe Arens, Richard Haass, Saud Nasir Al-Sabah, and Paul Wolfowitz.

On September 14-16, 1990, The Washington Institute held its fifth annual Policy Conference at the Wye Plantation. The following is an edited transcript of one speaker's remarks. Read a summary of the full conference. We are now seeing not just the outlines of a post-war security order, but the outlines

Secretary of State Baker's idea of developing "a new security structure" for the Middle East has been the subject of much attention. What specifically does the U.S. have in mind? The most honest answer is not much. It appears that, in raising the idea, Secretary Baker was for the most

Did President Bush reverse long-standing policy by inviting the USSR to play a role in Middle East peacemaking? No. In fact, the summit outcome points to two other conclusions. First, the Bush administration has been willing from the outset to give the Soviet Union a role in Middle East peacemaking

It is surprising how few Arabs and Arab states are supporting Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. As Secretary of State James Baker's visit to Damascus on Thursday shows, the anti-Iraq coalition includes the Arab world's three other most important powers: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Syria. This triumverate marks the Arab world's

Iraq's chemical weapons pose two major questions for U.S. policy today: • How threatening are these arms to U.S. forces? • What should the United States and its allies do to neutralize these weapons if Iraq's current capacities survive the crisis? Iraq is now the world's largest producer of chemical

Many commentators and policy-makers in Washington are calling for U.S. military action to dislodge Iraq from Kuwait. While this option may be attractive in principle, today it is impossible in practice. Indeed, according to Defense Secretary Dick Cheney, the U.S. military still has some way to go before it can

Sunday's Helsinki summit between Presidents Bush and Gorbachev offers an opportunity to consolidate impressive U.S.-Soviet coordination that has arisen in response to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, as well as to avoid future misunderstandings on the crisis that Iraq might seek to exploit. Such coordination is a key pillar in Washington's

The danger of a U.S.-Iraq military confrontation may be receding for the time being. But now the debate in the administration, Congress, and the public faces a new issue: will the Bush Administration's multilateral strategy prevent it from taking unilateral military action if Saddam Hussein refuses to withdraw from Kuwait

As UN Secretary-General Perez de Cuellar begins diplomatic contacts in Amman with Iraqi Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz, the Gulf crisis moves, at least temporarily, into a phase of negotiations. But negotiations can be as dangerous as battle -- leading to escalation, defeat, or even disaster. U.S. policy must be flexible

If there is a bright spot in the tragedy of Iraq's rape of Kuwait, it is the coordinated U.S.-Soviet response to the crisis. Iraqi strongman Saddam Hussein has posed the first challenge to East-West efforts to build a stable post-Cold War global order, and so far the superpowers are stepping

Since the conclusion of the Iran-Iraq war, Iraq has intensified, expanded, and diversified its effort to enhance its strategic capabilities, including efforts to develop or acquire unconventional weapons, long-range strike systems, and strategic reconnaissance systems. Iraq has traditionally aspired to be a regional power and its new strategic capabilities provide

A moderate run-up in oil prices in 1989 has led many oil forecasters to project large price hikes through the 1990s and a far more powerful OPEC cartel; in short another oil shock in the mid-1990s. Recent warnings from forecasters are reminiscent of the alarmist—and mistaken—predictions that followed the oil