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Brief Analysis
Carrier Gap Increases the Red Sea’s Vulnerability to Houthi Attacks
To fill the capabilities gap between carrier groups and prepare for potential Houthi escalation in the next few weeks, the United States and its partners need to implement stopgap measures and, ideally, surge more military assets into the region temporarily.
۲۸ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
Elizabeth Dent
Brief Analysis
Khamenei’s Second-Round Dilemmas
Allowing a runoff in the presidential election is a somewhat risky move for the Supreme Leader, but engineering a one-round outcome would raise domestic problems of its own.
۲۷ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
Patrick Clawson
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Saraya Awliya al-Dam Finds New Mission in Israel Attacks
The brand appears to have been reactivated by its parent organization, Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, to claim certain attacks on Israel during the Gaza war.
۲۷ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
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Michael Knights
◆
Militia Spotlight
In-Depth Reports
Evaluating UNRWA After the Colonna Report
The obvious nature of multiple recommendations points to scandalous mismanagement at the UN aid agency over decades.
۲۷ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
James G. Lindsay
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Houthi Ship Attacks Pose a Longer-Term Challenge to Regional Security and Trade Plans
The immediate effects of the Houthi antishipping campaign are measurably serious, but the United States, Saudi Arabia, and other partners also need to prepare for the emboldened group to exert its newfound leverage in other ways beyond the Gaza war.
۲۶ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
Noam Raydan
Articles & Testimony
Behind the US Plan to Prevent an All-Out Israel-Hezbollah War
An American-led diplomatic initiative to separate their forces at the border appears to be falling short, and time is running out.
۲۵ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
David Schenker
Brief Analysis
The NATO Summit Is Another Chance to Counter Russia in the “South”
The alliance has already been shifting toward greater engagement with the Middle East and Africa, but various maritime and infrastructure threats require more urgent attention, as does the broader problem of countering Moscow’s narrative.
۲۵ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
Anna Borshchevskaya
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Renavigating a Soft Power Relationship Between the West and Tunisia
Without a sea change, U.S. and European soft power will continue to erode in Tunisia at a moment of increasing crisis for the country.
۲۴ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
Oussama Boudhrioua
Articles & Testimony
Why Is Hamas’ Popularity Soaring Among Palestinians in the West Bank?
The numbers reflect backlash against the Palestinian Authority, which many see as corrupt, illegitimate, and unable to provide a path toward independence—though the alternative would be worse.
۲۴ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
Moran Stern
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Sadr’s Rebranded Political Movement: The Old, the New, and a Reality Check
Given the complicated baggage that Sadr brings into Iraq’s political game, his re-entry into formal politics after a years-long hiatus will likely destabilize the internal Shia political landscape.
۲۴ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
Mohammed Salih
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah Threatens Cyprus: Capabilities, Intentions, and Potential Consequences
If Hezbollah’s conflict with Israel widens, the group could use its large missile and drone arsenal to attack Cyprus, the allied military presence based there, and a wide array of shipping and energy assets in the East Mediterranean.
۲۱ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
Hanin Ghaddar
Farzin Nadimi
David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
Has the West Learned to Work with Tunisia?
Despite the country’s authoritarian turn and flirtation with Russia and China, Western officials are unwilling to risk valuable cooperation on immigration and security issues.
۲۱ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
Sabina Henneberg
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Politics of Real Estate in the Kurdish Region of Iraq
With ruling parties, companies, and mainstream media aligned against them, activists and environmentalists face a formidable challenge in curbing the exploitation of nature and corporate greed.
۲۰ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
Renwar Najm
Brief Analysis
Hamas and Iran Are Trying to Ignite Israel’s Eastern Fronts
Jordan and Israel can take assertive action to alleviate the risk, from additional border security measures to economic steps such as lifting the ban on West Bank workers and establishing a humanitarian corridor in south Syria.
۲۰ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
Ehud Yaari
Brief Analysis
Khamenei’s Presidential Choice: Weak Reformer or Strong Hardliner
Iranian presidential elections often produce surprise results, so a victory by Pezeshkian, the one reformist candidate, cannot be ruled out.
۲۰ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
Israel and the United States Must Agree on How to End the War in Gaza
If Netanyahu’s definition of victory is too broad, Biden’s is too narrow—Gaza must be measurably and permanently demilitarized.
۱۹ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
Dennis Ross
David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
The Muslim Brothers Give Hamas a Foothold in Lebanon
Most Lebanese Sunnis have resisted the MB’s mobilization so far, but this sentiment could shift quickly due to pressures from the Gaza war, the economic crisis, the local political vacuum, and the inroads being made by Hamas and Hezbollah.
۱۸ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
Hanin Ghaddar
Aaron Y. Zelin
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Militia Propagandist Promotes Qalibaf for Iranian President
Iraqi media official and Kataib Hezbollah member Hamid al-Husseini underlined his growing importance in the Iran threat network by issuing the endorsement—possibly as a surrogate for the IRGC-Qods Force.
۱۸ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
◆
Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
A New Era in Iraq’s Relations with the West?
Amid growing pressure to dissolve the coalition and withdraw troops, the United States and its partners should continue pursuing good relations with Baghdad—but this time with a lighter footprint and increased regional cooperation.
۱۷ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
Selin Uysal
Devorah Margolin
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Groups and Yemen's Houthis Claim More Joint Attacks on Israel
The Iraqi "resistance" and their Iran-backed fellow travelers in Yemen have added a new example of jointly branded attacks to their growing list of collaborative claims.
۱۷ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
◆
Militia Spotlight
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