Policy Analysis

As in past elections, the contest to determine a replacement for the late President Raisi will be less about the people’s choice and more about what direction the Supreme Leader wants the Islamic Republic to go.

From aligning weapons acquisition strategies and improving intelligence sharing to getting the diplomatic framing right, U.S. officials can do more to advance regional air defense and maritime security through this week’s working groups and beyond.

Although the group’s ideology will persist, the tools used to advance it can be effectively constrained through measures that turn a major threat into a marginal irritant.

As the conditions for long-term lawlessness and violence begin to take root, a former Pentagon official details the urgent steps Washington and its partners should take to prepare for the postwar “golden hour.”

A major shift in the death toll for women and children points to deeper problems in the way OCHA is relaying data and handling questionable sources.

The two allies are unlikely to agree on everything, but they need to iron out their differences given how much is at stake.

The U.S.-Israel rift over how to handle southern Gaza could embolden the Lebanese group to further accelerate its already heightened tempo of operations, though drawing clear deterrent lines could help limit the escalation.

Even increased aggressive activity in the Indian Ocean will be unlikely to seriously disrupt maritime traffic and global trade—but vessels calling on Israeli ports will need to take extra precautions.

Although relatively few drones or missiles seem to make it to Israel, launches are steadily increasing, potentially inviting overt retaliation inside Iraq.

The “carrots” approach only emboldened the regime to increase its smuggling of Captagon and weapons, but Caesar sanctions remain a potent stick.

Alignment between recovery efforts and the international coalition requires a comprehensive approach that prioritizes security, economic stabilization, and social cohesion.

The lesson from past deals involving Hezbollah is clear: the group will try to pocket any U.S. concessions on the presidency and other issues while simply jettisoning whatever border commitments it may make in return.

بحران کنونی فرصتی استثنایی در اختیار ایالات متحده آمریکا، اسراییل و شریکان آنها قرار داده تا ائتلافی بین‌المللی بر ضد ایران تشکیل دهند و به فلسطینی‌ها نشان دهند که اردوگاه "مقاومت" تنها راه آنها برای آینده نیست.

Given their unique cultural concepts and major economic and political clout, the Gulf states are poised to play an even more significant role in future peace and security initiatives.

The group is following Hezbollah’s playbook to a tee: first, secure victory simply by surviving, then take hold of the postwar governance structure while retaining its independent fighting force.

The president may have inadvertently created a cordon of immunity around Hamas in Rafah, decreased pressure on the group’s leaders to accept a cease-fire, and raised doubts among Arab partners.

Skewed historical comparisons do not change the fact that the president’s arms restrictions will put Israel in greater danger.

The latest U.S. repatriation is an important model for the international community to follow, but much work still needs to be done on resolving the precarious detainee dilemma before the situation in northeast Syria deteriorates further.

بازدیدهای سطح بالای دیپلماتیک اخیر نشان‌دهنده‌ی استیصال اقتصادی در کنار فرصت‌طلبی راهبردی –و چه بسا هسته‌ای– است.

Given the breakdown of the Lebanese state, Arab countries' normalization with Assad, and the fragmentation of the Syrian opposition, it seems that the United States can step in to play a pivotal role in protecting Syrian refugees facing persecution.