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Brief Analysis
The Potential for Radiological Terrorism by al-Qaeda and the Islamic State
So-called dirty bombs would probably not produce large numbers of casualties but could yield big headlines, impose heavy costs, and terrorize more effectively than is possible with conventional explosive devices.
۱۰ اوت ۲۰۱۶
◆
Michael Eisenstadt
Omar Mukhlis
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Next Iraq
The disintegration of Iraq’s borders and the displacement of its people force us to ask if Iraq has come to an end. If the old Iraq has come to an end but is to remain united, then what is its new identity? If it is to be divided, then where
۱۰ اوت ۲۰۱۶
◆
Haitham Numan
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Aleppo: Is the Turnaround Sustainable for the Rebels?
Anti-Assad forces can relish a victory, but their stated aspiration to hold the entire city should be taken with a grain of salt.
۹ اوت ۲۰۱۶
◆
Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
Turkish-Russian Ties after the Erdogan-Putin Breakthrough
The Russian president will likely follow up today's meeting by offering to lift sanctions, along with other incentives, but the longer-term bilateral impact on political ties, especially in Syria, will remain unknown for some time.
۹ اوت ۲۰۱۶
◆
Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
How Donald Trump's Rhetoric on NATO Works to Vladimir Putin's Advantage
To the Russian leader, a wavering U.S. commitment to the alliance vindicates an approach based on bold action in Georgia, Ukraine, and Syria and increasing aggressiveness toward American forces.
۷ اوت ۲۰۱۶
◆
Michael Singh
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The EU's Muddled Involvement in Mideast Affairs
If the Europeans continue to act independently of local actors' wishes, they could further complicate matters in a region already beset by daunting challenges.
۵ اوت ۲۰۱۶
◆
Ramy Aziz
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Cyber Dimensions of ISIS’s Occupation of Mosul
Mentally manipulating the Iraqi security forces by shaping the news and disseminating it online was one of the major pillars of ISIS’ strategy to occupy Mosul. The fall of Mosul on June 10 2014, followed by the fall of Nineveh and other Iraqi provinces, was especially notable for ISIS’s use
۵ اوت ۲۰۱۶
◆
Ali Aghuan
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Increasing Jordanian Involvement: The Benefits and Risks of a Modern "Greater Jordan"
Proponents of such a view are driven by an utter lack of alternatives amid intractable regional conflict.
۵ اوت ۲۰۱۶
◆
Mohammad Al Zghool
In-Depth Reports
Inside the Caliphate's Classroom:
Textbooks, Guidance Literature, and Indoctrination Methods of the Islamic State
Two years after the declaration of a caliphate by the Islamic State, the world has become well acquainted with the group's brutality, territorial expansion, apocalyptic narrative, and ability to stage large-scale terrorist attacks inside and outside the Middle East. Less discussed are IS textbooks and book-publishing activities. Our knowledge of
۵ اوت ۲۰۱۶
◆
Jacob Olidort
Brief Analysis
Palestinian Local Elections: An Opportunity for Political Revival or a Game of Chicken
Despite optimism from some observers, the proposed Palestinian municipal vote could create a scenario that entrenches divisions and deepens the national political crisis.
۵ اوت ۲۰۱۶
◆
Ghaith al-Omari
Video
Brief Analysis
Prosecuting Assad: War Crimes, Mass Atrocities, and U.S. Policy
Three experts discuss the trove of documentation behind Syrian war crimes, U.S. pursuit of transitional justice for the Assad regime, and how prosecutions might proceed.
۵ اوت ۲۰۱۶
◆
Stephen J. Rapp
Ben Taub
Video
Brief Analysis
Energy and U.S. Middle East Policy in an Era of Plentiful Oil
Three experts discuss U.S. priorities in the Middle East, the potential upsides and downsides of increased American energy independence, and the consequences of low prices for various oil-producing states.
۴ اوت ۲۰۱۶
◆
Patrick Clawson
Simon Henderson
Helima Croft
In-Depth Reports
The Transformation of Hezbollah by Its Involvement in Syria
In examining the military and political effects of Hezbollah's involvement in Syria, one sees that the group has paid a heavy price in blood and treasure, yet it has also achieved much. For an entity that has evolved from a small cadre of militants to a large guerrilla force to
۴ اوت ۲۰۱۶
◆
Nadav Pollak
Articles & Testimony
Iran's Plan to Expand Its Nuclear Program -- and Steps the U.S. Can Take to Deter It
In response to a recently publicized document describing Iran's nuclear intentions, the next U.S. administration should first make clear that being aware of Iran's plans is not the same as acquiescing to them.
۴ اوت ۲۰۱۶
◆
Michael Singh
Articles & Testimony
The Case for (Finally) Bombing Assad
If Russia does want to limit its involvement in Syria, the threat of limited strikes should persuade it to make the Syrian leader behave.
۳ اوت ۲۰۱۶
◆
Dennis Ross
Andrew J. Tabler
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Damascus Control Emboldens Assad Nationally
Without a real military threat to the capital, neither the Syrian leader nor Iran will accept a political transition, even if Russia agrees to one.
۲ اوت ۲۰۱۶
◆
Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
U.S. Strikes Islamic State in Libya
Together with a domestic oil deal, the American airstrikes could mark an important turn for the war-torn nation.
۲ اوت ۲۰۱۶
◆
Ben Fishman
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Aftermath of the al-Qaa Terrorist Attack: Shifts in Lebanese Politics
The eight suicide bombers were apparently dispatched to disrupt a new political paradigm in Lebanon: a Christian-Shiite alliance.
۲۹ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Fadi al-Dahouk
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Sisi's New Approach to Egypt-Israel Relations
Cairo believes that relations with Israel are strategically and diplomatically beneficial, and the trend toward greater rapprochement will likely continue.
۲۹ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Mohammed Soliman
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Kurdish Forces Bolster Assad in Aleppo
By allying with the Syrian regime, the YPG implicitly signaled to the U.S. government that the Kurdish group will act based on its own interests.
۲۹ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Fabrice Balanche
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