Policy Analysis

Following this weekend's widespread disturbances in Libya, Muammar Qadhafi could lose power within hours or days as his military units and security services crumble in the face of popular discontent. Alternatively, he could decide -- in the ominous words of his son Saif al-Islam -- to "fight to the last

Egypt is now effectively under military control and will likely remain so for some months. The Supreme Military Council (SMC) holds effective decisionmaking authority, although a civilian cabinet remains in place. The SMC has pledged to make a swift transition to a new civilian government, but to date it has

On February 16, Bahraini security forces used brute force to clear democracy protestors from Manama's Pearl Square, on orders from a regime seemingly undaunted by international media coverage and the near-instantaneous self-reporting of Twitter-generation demonstrators. Although the relatively small size of the crowds (compared to recent protests in Egypt and

With the UN Security Council scheduled to meet tomorrow to discuss Israeli settlement activity in the West Bank, the Obama administration should consider carefully in what framework a veto to a possible resolution on settlements would be cast.

One of the unexpected consequences of recent Arab unrest in the Middle East is Turkey's elevation into a potential regional power.

The attempted passage through the Suez Canal of two Iranian warships en route to an unprecedented Mediterranean deployment demonstrates the potential constraints on Iranian efforts to realize its Great Power ambitions.

This week marked the sixth anniversary of the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri, killed in a Beirut bombing on February 14, 2005. Noting the solemn occasion, UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon issued a statement paying tribute to Hariri and the other twenty-two people killed that day and reaffirming

The political turmoil in Egypt has prompted renewed concerns about the security of oil and gas supplies from the Middle East. The country's proximity to two key chokepoints -- the Suez Canal and the Bab al-Mandab Strait between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden -- is significant. Yet

Because democratic transition is hard enough without pressure demanding that it be rapid, the objective for Egypt is to ensure that the revolution is sustainable. The test is not a first election, but rather whether there is a second one.

In Egypt's war of attrition, only continued mobilization will compel the military to reassess its current calculation that a September exit for Mubarak is the only solution.

On February 9, 2011, Washington Institute executive director Robert Satloff testified before the House Foreign Affairs Committee at a hearing titled "Recent Developments in Egypt and Lebanon: Implications for U.S. Policy and Allies in the Broader Middle East." The following is an excerpt from his prepared remarks. Read the complete

What seemed at first to be the beginning of an orderly transition in Egypt is starting to look more like a war of attrition.

On February 9, 2011, Washington Institute executive director Robert Satloff testified before the House Foreign Affairs Committee. The following is an excerpt from his prepared remarks. "Events of the past two weeks have constituted an earthquake in terms of Arab political dynamics, the pursuit of security and peace in the

On January 5, radical Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr entered Iraq after a three-year self-imposed exile in Iran, but then returned to Iran fifteen days later. According to Saudi-owned media outlets, he fled because of threats from Asaib Ahl al-Haqq (AAH), a militant offshoot of his own Sadrist movement. Whatever the

The New York Times convened an online panel of six Middle East experts to discuss the Obama administration's cautious approach to Egypt: aiming for stability and holding off on a rapid ouster of Mr. Mubarak. David Makovsky contributes.

On February 2, 2011, J. Scott Carpenter, Dina Guirguis, David Schenker, and Robert Satloff addressed a special Policy Forum luncheon at The Washington Institute. Mr. Carpenter is the Institute's Keston Family fellow and director of Project Fikra: Defeating Extremism through the Power of Ideas. Ms. Guirguis is a Keston Family

Egypt's transition toward a post-Hosni Mubarak era, as incremental and painful as it might be, has sparked interest in the "Turkish model" of democracy-craft, i.e. the art of conducting democratic affairs, which in Turkey involves the military playing a stabilizing role during the transition process while Islamist parties moderate through

Dina Guirguis joined other experts in charting a course for post-Mubarak Egypt in a special Washington Post feature on Sunday, February 6, 2011.

Israel's claim for recognition as a "Jewish" state continues to generate substantial controversy: what many Israelis see as an elementary component of true peace, many Palestinians perceive as a ploy to undermine it. And because this debate has been cast in zero-sum terms, it has created the impression of an

The Obama administration and Congress should seek to protect a democratic transition in Egypt -- not stand in its way out of exaggerated fear.