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Brief Analysis
Anticipating Patterns of Global Terrorism 2001
The 2001 edition of Patterns of Global Terrorism, the U.S. government's preeminent annual accounting of international terrorism, is slated for release tomorrow, a few weeks later than its usual April unveiling. The delay is presumably the result of the sharp rise in international terror activity in 2001. The report is
۲۰ مهٔ ۲۰۰۲
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Mary Robinson, War Criminal?
An Appropriate Career Move
On September 12, 1997, United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan appointed Mary Robinson as the United Nation's High Commissioner for Human Rights. On paper, Robinson is as eminently qualified as any other U.N. political appointee. For seven years, she served as president of Ireland. The website of the Office of the
۲۰ مهٔ ۲۰۰۲
Brief Analysis
Iran's Place in the Axis:
Signs of Movement?
Near the end of the Clinton administration, some analysts expressed a degree of hope that Iran's reform movement would inject some measure of pragmatism into Iranian foreign policy. That hope seems to have faded. The Bush administration has established terrorism and proliferation -- two areas in which Iran has been
۱۷ مهٔ ۲۰۰۲
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Ray Takeyh
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Promoting America's Image Abroad:
The Impact on the War against Terrorism
The United States is viewed with suspicion by much of the rest of the world, and its motives are consistently questioned for several reasons. This reality can be addressed through actionable goals. First, the United States is perceived as being too big, a hyperpower whose global reach is threatening. Second
۱۷ مهٔ ۲۰۰۲
Brief Analysis
From Armed Struggle to Reform:
A Textual Analysis of Arafat's Ramallah Address
Speaking to the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) in Ramallah yesterday, Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat offered a new political agenda to guide the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the aftermath of Israel's Operation Defensive Shield and U.S.-led diplomatic efforts to win his release from Israeli encirclement. The main headings of that agenda
۱۶ مهٔ ۲۰۰۲
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Reforming the Palestinian Security Services
Last week, during the visit of Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon, President George W. Bush announced the need to "immediately begin to help rebuild a security force in Palestine that will fight terror, that will bring some stability to the region." He also stated that Central Intelligence Agency director George
۱۵ مهٔ ۲۰۰۲
Articles & Testimony
The Saudis and Saddam
Last week, the New York Times's Patrick E. Tyler reported that President Bush and Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia had agreed on a new strategy of joint action and pressure to break the deadlock in the Middle East crisis. American officials would talk bluntly with Prime Minister Ariel Sharon
۱۳ مهٔ ۲۰۰۲
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
The Intra-Likud Power Struggle and Israeli National Elections
The Likud Central Committee meets on Sunday to discuss a resolution opposing Palestinian statehood. Such a resolution could be seen as an important declarative step, despite its lack of legal significance (Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has publicly endorsed the idea of Palestinian statehood—albeit in vague terms). Although a vote on
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Brief Analysis
An International Force in the West Bank and Gaza Strip:
The Security Aspects
On Tuesday, former president Bill Clinton joined others in advocating a U.S.-led international force in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Several frameworks for such an intervention have been proposed, ranging from monitoring missions to full-fledged international trusteeship over the territories. Underlying these ideas is a lack of confidence in
۹ مهٔ ۲۰۰۲
Articles & Testimony
Target All Terror
The threat of devastating terrorist attacks targeting Americans still is very real despite the near-hysterical, though unsubstantiated, warnings of al-Qaida's plans to strike at everything from banks to grocery stores. Based on intelligence found in Afghanistan, 15 people were arrested in Singapore for planning to bomb the U.S. Embassy, American
۸ مهٔ ۲۰۰۲
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Qaedat al-Jihad:
New Name on the Road to Palestine
Within the last month, the remaining members of al-Qaeda have begun to issue new electronic pamphlets through the websites of their supporters under the name of "Qaedat al-Jihad" (base of jihad). Usage of the internet by radical Islamists is not unprecedented, but after al-Qaeda's defeat in Afghanistan, it has become
۶ مهٔ ۲۰۰۲
Brief Analysis
The Return of Palestinian Nationalist Terrorism
The State Department's annual Patterns of Global Terrorism report, which is scheduled for release in late May, is set to be a much longer and more detailed document than before. Among the many issues the report will have to address is the resurrection of secular Palestinian terrorist groups, some of
۳ مهٔ ۲۰۰۲
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Iran:
Scared Straight?
On January 29, President George W. Bush caused considerable consternation among foreign policy analysts by referring to an "axis of evil" in his State of the Union address. The analysts worried that the president's castigation of Iran would embolden hardliners who routinely exploit external threats as a means of deflecting
۳ مهٔ ۲۰۰۲
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Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
Between Abdullah and Sharon:
The Bush Administration Considers Middle East Options
A spate of visitors have been coming to the United States to talk with senior Bush administration officials about the Middle East. Perhaps the most prominent visitor has been Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah, the de facto Saudi ruler who last visited the United States three years ago. As a
۲ مهٔ ۲۰۰۲
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David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
In Bad Company:
Yasser Arafat and Saddam Hussein
When I taught history in an Iraqi university last year, I had several students from single-parent homes. The problem was not divorce, but rather politics. Some of my student's parents had supported opposition political figures, so Iraqi President Saddam Hussein had them shot. Some professors were widowed for the same
۲ مهٔ ۲۰۰۲
Brief Analysis
Demographic Dynamics in the Middle East:
A View from the United Nations
There is no doubt that demographics and population are linked to political stability. Although water and food resources are topics of great concern in the Middle East, there is another vital resource that deserves attention: young people. Today, growing unrest and perceptions of inequality and injustice pervade the region. Although
۱ مهٔ ۲۰۰۲
Articles & Testimony
The Peace Process at Sea:
The <em>Karine-A</em> Affair and the War on Terrorism
On January 3, in the clouds high above the waters of the Red Sea, Lt. General Shaul Mofaz, chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, peered anxiously through a specially designed telescopic lens at an old, rusty, blue freighter several kilometers below. For the previous three months, Israeli intelligence
۱ مهٔ ۲۰۰۲
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Khatami and the Myth of Reform in Iran
On May 26, 1997, Iranians overwhelmingly elected Muhammad Khatami to be the fifth president of the Islamic Republic. Khatami won nearly 70 percent of the vote in elections marked by 80 percent turnout. The New York Times was euphoric, declaring in an editorial that same day that Khatami was "dedicated
۱ مهٔ ۲۰۰۲
Brief Analysis
Prospects for Economic Reform in Turkey
Turkey's recovery from the economic crisis of February 2001 has so far been very successful. Fundamental reforms have been undertaken and strict fiscal discipline has been implemented. Furthermore, this process is, to a large degree, irreversible. For the recovery to be truly successful, however, it is essential that Turkey's relations
۲۹ آوریل ۲۰۰۲
Articles & Testimony
Three Hard Roads to Peace
The time has come to step back and consider our options in the Middle East. Secretary of State Colin Powell's mission unfortunately has not altered the realities on the ground. While Israeli military operations have disrupted and destroyed much of the terrorist infrastructure in the West Bank, it is only
۲۵ آوریل ۲۰۰۲
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Dennis Ross
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