Policy Analysis

As the May 5 second-round Majlis (parliament) election approaches, questions remain as to whether the Islamic Republic's hardliners can be marginalized through the ballot box, whether reformists' voices can be muzzled, and whether change in Iran can both be rapid and nonviolent. In February, the reformist triumph in the first

With Israeli-Palestinian peace talks getting underway in Eilat this weekend, the Middle East seems to be switching peace tracks yet again. After President Bill Clinton held separate White House meetings with Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat earlier this month, State Department spokesman James

A robust world economy is driving up oil consumption, while supply is growing slowly. The global safety margin, from oil stocks and excess capacity, is shrinking. By later this year, world oil markets could be in a rather delicate balance--a balance vulnerable to a political shock, such as might be

On April 29, the U.S. Department of State will issue Patterns of Global Terrorism 1999, its comprehensive annual survey describing events, trends, and developments in international terrorism during 1999. Because it is based on open source material already available to the informed public, the significance of the report lies more

On April 16, Israel officially notified the United Nations (UN) that southern Lebanon would be evacuated in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 425, adding further weight to the March 5, 2000, announcement by the Israeli cabinet that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) would "redeploy on the border with

Iran's hardliners, who suffered a resounding drubbing in February's first-round Majlis (parliament) elections, have been resurgent in defeat and now appear to have the momentum in their ongoing power struggle with reformist politicians and institutions. In their latest move, Iran's hardline-dominated judiciary ordered the immediate closure of twelve reformist newspapers

Hamas (the Islamic Resistance Movement) has recently published a denial of the Jewish Holocaust on its official website. Although Hamas often uses anti-Jewish phrases, this was the first time the organization has officially denied the Holocaust. Background In the 1940s in many parts of the Arab world, there was a

Local actors, not the Western imperialist powers, were the dominant players in the development of the modern Middle East. The clash between nationalism and imperialism drove events that shaped the region, and the local actors could be found on both sides of that clash: they were as eager imperialists as

Mercurial Libyan leader Mu'ammar Qadhafi continues to disappoint those who hope for moderation. His April 3 speech at the Africa-European Union (EU) summit, much heralded as a sign of where Libya is headed, was old-fashioned bombast. Although much may have changed in the international community, Qadhafi's commitment to "anti-imperialism" and

On Monday, April 17, the trial of twenty-eight Islamists charged with the intention to bomb American and Israeli targets during millennium celebrations will begin in Jordan. The list of the arrestees as published in the Jordanian dailies al-Ra'i and al-Dustur indicates that at least nineteen are of Palestinian origin, including

Press reporting out of the Middle East in the wake of the failed Geneva summit between Presidents Bill Clinton and Hafiz al-Asad suggests that the territorial dispute between Damascus and Jerusalem has widened and that issues pertaining to the ownership of the Sea of Galilee (also known as the Kinneret

On April 13, thirteen Iranian Jews are scheduled to come to trial in Shiraz to face espionage charges that carry the death penalty. The trial, more than a year after the thirteen were originally detained, comes at a critical time for Iran--less than two months after Iranian president Muhammad Khatami's

Leaders of Turkey's governing coalition meet tomorrow seeking agreement on a presidential candidate who can muster a parliamentary majority and replace Suleyman Demirel when his term expires May 16. Mainly at stake for Turkey in the upcoming presidential selection process is the survivability and effectiveness of the Ecevit government and

On April 5, 2000, The Washington Institute released a new report, The Last Arab-Israeli Battlefield? Implications of an Israeli Withdrawal from Lebanon, and hosted its seven contributing authors at a Special Policy Forum. The contributors include Nicole Brackman, Patrick Clawson, Michael Eisenstadt, Steven Hecker, John Hillen, Frederic Hof, and Gal

Since their rise to power in 1994 and their capture of Kabul two years later, the Taliban have based their legitimacy on the promise of both stability and an end to the war. At the time, people enthusiastically saw a force who disarmed bandits and brought order. Many also hoped

Recently, Nawaf Obaid, author of The Washington Institute's recent book The Oil Kingdom at 100: Petroleum Policy Making in Saudi Arabia, and Edward Morse, executive adviser at the Hess Energy Trading Company, addressed the Institute's Special Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur’s summary of their remarks. EDWARD MORSE The

The withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) from southern Lebanon announced by Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak looms large. Set for July 7, this withdrawal is closely linked to the Syrian track of negotiations. It will end the fifteen-year status quo of the security zone, with Israel planning to

An Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon would mark a major change in the status quo that has prevailed in the Middle East for the last twenty years. This will create both risks and opportunities for the peoples of the region and for U.S. policy. What happens after an Israeli withdrawal is

Despite the existence of a two-decade old strategic alliance between Egypt and the United States, political elites in both countries are profoundly skeptical of the goals and intentions of the other side. In Egypt, there are doubts about the legitimacy of U.S. behavior in the world, about the even-handedness of

President Clinton's trip to Geneva on Sunday to meet Syrian leader Hafiz al-Asad begins the last leg of the administration's eight-year marathon effort to broker an elusive Syrian-Israeli peace agreement. The stakes, however, are higher than just Clinton's peacemaking legacy. While most observers believe that Syria and Israel are just