Policy Analysis

November 9, 2017 The sudden resignation on November 4 of Lebanon’s Sunni Muslim prime minister, Saad Hariri, cast a harsh spotlight on his country’s internal polarization and external ties to Iran. Speaking from Saudi Arabia, where he remains in exile, Hariri blamed both of those Shia-dominated actors for Lebanon’s growing

November 8, 2017 Beginning when the Muslim Brotherhood came to power in Egypt in the summer of 2012, the Hamas-Egypt relationship deepened significantly. The relationship went beyond the General Intelligence Directorate’s coordination of security matters, to include coordination among political leaders Mohamed Morsi and Ismail Haniyeh. The strong relationship between

November 7, 2017 Former Kurdistan region president Masoud Barzani miscalculated the potential fallout of the referendum. But political miscalculation by itself cannot explain Barzani’s decision to hold the controversial referendum on September 25th. Rather, the security dilemma in which Iraqi Kurds have lived since the foundation of Iraq in early

November 7, 2017 Watching a televised debate last week on the current tension between Kurdistan and Iraq, Haitham al-Jibouri, an Iraqi parliamentarian from the dominant Da’awa Party, made this proclamation: “The Barzanis violated the rights of the Kurdish people by misusing power and wealth. We will correct all these misfortunes

November 2, 2017 In mid-August, TV screens showed us the strange footage of Islamic State militants and their families travelling in buses protected by the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), Hezbollah, and the Syrian Arab Army (SAA). Yesterday enemies, today the LAF, Hezbollah, and SAA are keen to move the Islamic

October 27, 2017 The Berber Spring, known in Berber as “Tafsut Imaziyen,” was a period of clashes that erupted between Algerian security forces and Berber students and activists on March 10, 1980. Algerian authorities had banned a lecture by writer Mouloud Mammeri on ancient Berber poetry in the city of

October 25, 2017 As Secretary of State Tillerson returns from the Middle East, where he focused on challenges from Iran and intra-Arab divisions, a new poll in Kuwait reveals a mixed yet largely favorable picture of popular attitudes on such issues in that small but strategic Gulf state. On Iran’s

“The Qatari courts cannot be trusted,” testified Dr. Najeeb al Nauimi, the former justice minister of Qatar, in a written affidavit to benefit Mohamed Fahmy. Fahmy, a former Al Jazeera English reporter, filed a multimillion-dollar lawsuit against his former employer in a Canadian court in May 2015. Lawyers representing Al

October 18, 2017 On September 13, the Tunisian parliament adopted a highly controversial “reconciliation in the administrative field” bill. The law offers amnesty to public officials involved in financial corruption under the Ben Ali regime (1987-2011) and is a lead initiative of Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi. On September 14

October 18, 2017 Millenarianism, or “end of days” messianic speculation, is thriving and evolving -- and being weaponized by both Sunni and Shia radical movements – as evidenced by the Islamic State on one side, and Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies on the other. While still limited and contained, the

October 16, 2017 The current U.S. administration sees Iran and its rising political clout in Iraq and beyond as a grave threat to its own interests and those of its allies in the Middle East. As a result, Washington has pursued a political strategy that centers on limiting Iran’s influence

October 16, 2017 Fear that Iran is working to build a bridge to the Mediterranean as a path to regional hegemony is hanging over U.S. military thinking and actions in Iraq and Syria. Allowing this suspicion to drive strategy could drag America into an unpredictable conflict that may continue long

October 12, 2017 As President Trump unveils his revised U.S. strategy to contain Iran, surveys reveal that key Arab publics in the region share his antipathy toward Tehran. Previously reported polls from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and even Qatar, sometimes depicted as pro-Iranian, demonstrated solid majorities in each country with unfavorable

October 05, 2017 There is not a war in the world that does not bring misfortune. Even if Hezbollah wins the Syrian war, sharp divisions among the Lebanese Shia will remain. The war has exacerbated the phenomenon of sectarianism in a variety of ways. Day after day, the region’s poor

October 05, 2017 As the birthplace of the Arab Spring, Tunisia has proven to be an oddity. While other Arab Spring countries have experienced varying levels of war, mayhem, and authoritarian crack-downs, Tunisia has remained on a path of peaceful change. The absence of violence, however, should not be mistaken

October 03, 2017 The startling news that Saudi Arabia plans to let women drive aroused surprisingly mixed reactions among key kingdom-watchers. There is general satisfaction that Riyadh is really reforming at long last, but also some apprehension about a possible reactionary backlash. This points to a larger issue that is

October 2, 2017 Seven years after the Jasmine Revolution toppled the graft-ridden dictatorship of Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, corruption remains one of the top concerns of average Tunisians. With the launch of Prime Minister Youssef Chahed’s “war on corruption” in May 2017, many Tunisians hope that they may finally see

September 26, 2017 A 2015 report estimated that in addition to an extensive network of local women, 550 Western women left their homes to travel to Syria and Iraq in order to join the Islamic State. A separate study in 2016 revealed that an average of 17 percent of as

September 23, 2017 The question of independence is a heated discussion topic in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Massoud Barzani, president of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), claims that the defeat of the Islamic State will change the map of Iraq and the Middle East and offer Kurds an opportunity

September 23, 2017 Seen from Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, U.S. and other foreign pressure to postpone the September 25 referendum on independence is, as Talleyrand once said, “worse than a sin – it is a mistake.” Popular enthusiasm for independence, and moral arguments about Kurdish