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In-Depth Reports
Russia's Relations with Iran:
Dialogue without Commitments
Under current conditions, it would be naive to expect Russia to severely curtail its relations with Tehran or officially support the West's stance on the nuclear question. Given Iran's importance as a regional player, Moscow simply cannot afford confrontation with its southern neighbor. At the same time, Russia's pragmatic, cost-benefit
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Nikolay Kozhanov
Brief Analysis
Beware of Egyptian Political Shocks
Technically, Egypt's political transition is on schedule. The first round of the presidential election was held May 23-24, the second round is set to occur June 16-17, a winner will be announced by June 21, and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), which has ruled the country since
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Eric Trager
Articles & Testimony
Why a Syrian Civil War Would Be a Disaster For U.S. National Security
Speaking Thursday before the U.N. General Assembly, just one day after the latest massacre of civilians by government-affiliated forces, Kofi Annan warned that the crisis in Syria was on a disastrous course. “If things do not change, the future is likely to be one of brutal repression, massacres, sectarian violence
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
U.S. Options for Syria: Action vs. Inaction
The Obama administration should take actions to overcome the obstacles to, and mitigate the risks of, bolder international action in Syria.
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Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
Preserving UN Peacekeeping in the Levant
Violence in Syria and Lebanon coincides with diminished international commitment to UN forces monitoring the borders with Israel.
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David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
Why Neither of Egypt's Presidential Choices Represents Democracy
The results of the first round of voting in Egypt's presidential elections has yielded a choice in the second round between two starkly different men -- former Mubarak-era prime minister and air force general Ahmed Shafik, and Muslim Brotherhood official Mohammad Morsi. For Washington, less important than which man wins
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Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
The Effort to Unseat Maliki: Lessons for U.S. Policy
With U.S. encouragement, broad-based national dialogue could increase the chance that Maliki handles Iraq's next political crisis by compromising with domestic partners rather than reaching out to Tehran, a player with no real commitment to Iraq's interests.
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Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
The MFO Under Fire in Sinai
Deteriorating security in the Sinai Peninsula threatens not only the peacekeepers based there, but also the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty.
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David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
America, Israel, and the Strategic Implications of the Arab Uprisings
The upheavals of the last 18 months have transformed an already difficult regional landscape into perhaps the most inhospitable strategic environment in modern history.
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Robert Satloff
In-Depth Reports
Beyond Worst-Case Analysis:
Iran's Likely Responses to an Israeli Preventive Strike
Although an Israeli preventive strike on Iran's nuclear program would be a high-risk endeavor carrying a potential for escalation in the Levant or the Persian Gulf, it would not be the apocalyptic event that some foresee. In this Policy Note, two Washington Institute military experts assess the likelihood of various
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Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
U.S. Policy and Egypt's Presidential Runoff: Projecting Clarity, Not Disinterest
To bolster the integrity of Egypt's democratic process and preserve America's own national interests, Washington should make clear how the outcome of the presidential runoff could affect U.S.-Egyptian relations.
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
The Turkey-Syria Military Balance
After the number of Syrian refugees entering Turkey reached 25,000 in April, public statements by senior Turkish officials began raising the possibility of military action. Specifically, Ankara has hinted at the possibility of establishing a buffer zone or safe haven inside Syria to defend the civilian population and contain the
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Soner Cagaptay
Coskun Unal
Articles & Testimony
Turkey, Israel: Potential for a Fresh Start?
Thursday marks the two-year anniversary of the 2010 flotilla incident, a crisis on the high seas that triggered a tailspin in Turkish-Israeli relations. In the aftermath of the incident, Turkey recalled its ambassador and demanded an apology from Israel as well as reparations for the nine slain activists. Ankara even
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Soner Cagaptay
Tyler Evans
Articles & Testimony
What Does the Syrian Opposition Believe?
There are increasing calls for international intervention in Syria after this weekend's massacre in Houla, where Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's forces murdered more than 100 civilians. Obstacles to intervention remain, however, especially concern that the opposition to Assad's regime is dominated by religious fundamentalists. Until recently, for example, the Syrian
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David Pollock
Articles & Testimony
How Tehran Is Outflanking Washington
Last week's talks in Baghdad between Iran and the P5-plus-1 -- the United States, Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia -- yielded no agreement. Paradoxically, however, both Washington and Tehran are likely to view the negotiations as successful, but for vastly different reasons. There is an interest that both Iran
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Michael Singh
Articles & Testimony
Cut Off Assad's Lifelines
Last week's massacre in the Syrian village of al-Houla, in which more than 100 civilians lost their lives, has called into question the conventional wisdom in Washington that intervention would make things worse on the ground. President Bashar al-Assad's disregard for the U.N. deadlines in early April to withdraw forces
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Andrew J. Tabler
Brief Analysis
Assad's Response to the Annan Plan: Violence as Usual
In light of the Houla tragedy and other indicators of growing violence, the UN observer mission in Syria will likely be withdrawn, spurring the regime to escalate its offensive operations even further.
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Jeffrey White
Articles & Testimony
Reports of the Muslim Brotherhood's Demise Were Greatly Exaggerated
In the run-up to the first round of Egypt's presidential elections, which concluded on Thursday, the Muslim Brotherhood's downfall was widely anticipated. Only four months after winning a 47-percent plurality in the parliamentary elections, the Washington Post reported that the Brotherhood's stock was "plunging," while the Wall Street Journal insisted
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Eric Trager
Dennis Ross: Political Solution Still Possible with Iran
As world powers make their way to Baghdad for another meeting with Iran in an attempt to resolve the nuclear standoff, former US negotiator Dennis Ross tells Al-Hayat that a political solution is still possible on the issue. Ross, who closely worked on the Iranian file in the last three
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Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Command and Control
This week, the world's major powers resumed negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program. Should they fail, the specter of a possible Israeli strike looms large, seeming to grow more likely as Tehran's nuclear program advances. In recent weeks, however, the conventional wisdom has shifted to favor the view that
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David Makovsky
Olivia Holt-Ivry
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