Policy Analysis

Southern Iraq is in revolt. Reliable information is scarce, provided by reconnaissance photos, the reports of panicked refugees, and Iraqi exile groups in Tehran, Damascus, and Beirut. Each has its own ax to grind and credit to claim. Perhaps Saddam will succeed in restoring his authority. Perhaps not. If he

The staggering allied victory in the Gulf War has been followed by presidential statements from Washington and Paris about the need to settle the Arab-Israeli conflict. On the face of it, however, the war against Saddam appears to have made a solution to the Palestinian problem more necessary and yet

Saddam Hussein has claimed that Iraq possesses ballistic missiles capable of carrying biological weapons. This dramatic, if ambiguous, statement only served to dramatize earlier assertions by American officials that Iraq was indeed capable of waging biological warfare. As troubling as is the immediate threat from Baghdad, American officials, however, believe

With the suspension of hostilities in the Gulf War, when can American troops begin to come home? Assuming that a formal cease-fire goes into effect within the coming days, the need for the bulk of American forces in the theater will disappear. However, the United States will require a considerable

With the liberation of Kuwait almost completed and Saddam Hussein's army of occupation now firmly in the vice of allied forces, it is high time to contemplate the future of Iraq. If Saddam Hussein continues to rule, he will be weak and embattled. His military impotence has been demonstrated, pricking

By issuing his own cease-fire requirements to Saddam Hussein, President Bush has effectively rendered Mikhail Gorbachev's peace plan -- even today's "revised" version -- dead on arrival. In doing so, he is also sending the Soviet President a very tough message: The United States, which has sacrificed blood and treasure

Let there be no misunderstanding. Even if Saddam Hussein ultimately goes through with it, the Soviet proposal to end the gulf war will bring neither peace nor stability to the Mideast. At best, it promises a brief interlude, perhaps a decade, during which Hussein will regroup his forces and rebuild

If Saddam Hussein accepts the Soviet peace proposal, President Bush will face a difficult dilemma. The President will have to choose between accepting terms for an Iraqi withdrawal which could well leave Saddam in power with much of his military capability intact and rejecting the Soviet terms with all the

IRAQ'S STRATEGY by Laurie Mylroie Today's Revolutionary Command Council statement accepting UN Resolution 660 represents the first time that the Iraqi government has stated the conditions under which it would leave Kuwait. It is also the first time that it has explicitly mentioned the word "withdrawal," although notably, the word

Artillery has historically been the principal cause of casualties on the modern battlefield, and Iraq's large, advanced, and diverse inventory of artillery pieces is one of the major strengths of its ground forces. Given Saddam Hussein's strategy of inflicting maximum casualties on U.S. forces, artillery will likely play a central

While the Defense Department's Fiscal Year 1992 budget was largely drawn up prior to the Gulf crisis, in at least one area DoD has tried to learn an early lesson from the war. The United States in the future will have to devote increasing attention to the air defense mission

After nearly three weeks of sustained air operations, and over 45,000 sorties (half being offensive missions), the principal goal of the war -- the liberation of Kuwait -- remains unrealized. The allied air campaign against Iraqi forces in the Kuwaiti theater of operations has several major objectives: • The destruction

Three dangerous myths concerning the Gulf war require urgent examination and refutation: • The removal of Saddam Hussein from power would end the war and the threat Iraq poses to the region. • The anti-Saddam alliance must be careful lest Iraq's collapse destroy the regional balance of power. • Iraq

The arrival of large numbers of Iraqi planes in Iran is almost certainly another effort by Saddam Hussein to reduce Iraq's isolation and widen the war. As he explained to CNN on January 28, he views Iran as a "fellow Muslim nation" which shares his view of the confrontation as

Iraq's elite Republican Guard -- the best armed and trained unit in the army -- comprises the mainstay of its ground force's offensive capability, and the principal pillar of Saddam Hussein's regime. Republican Guard units in southern Iraq and Kuwait also form the backbone of Iraq's defenses there. Their destruction

Today's report from the BBC that several hundred Soviet military advisors remain in Iraq, actively servicing that country's sophisticated military hardware and command and control system, is, if true, a worrisome development. It would be the latest in a series of recent events that raise the fear that the USSR's

The Gulf War will transform the Middle East and America's relationship with it. While seeking success today, the United States must also focus on promoting long-term prospects for regional stability. A critical objective should be forging a more stable balance of power in the Middle East so that no hostile

The launch of more than two dozen Al-Husayn missiles during the opening days of the current war has emphasized the importance of missiles in Iraqi military strategy. Striking military and civilian targets in Israel and Saudi Arabia could pose severe political problems for the United States. Israel could be dragged

At 2:35 a.m. Baghdad time, allied aircraft initiated the first phase of what will probably be a prolonged and intense air campaign against Iraq. Up to 1000 U.S. and 200 allied combat aircraft may have participated in the initial strike. In all, nearly 1700 allied aircraft are in theater, versus

At midnight, the January 15 deadline for Iraq's withdrawal from Kuwait will expire without the slightest hint that Saddam Hussein intends to leave. President Bush's "gut instinct" and the conventional wisdom of Washington's experts have both been confounded. Confronted by a massive array of force, Saddam Hussein has not decided