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Brief Analysis
Stuck in Neutral?
Diagnosing the Impasse in the Middle East Peace Process
The following is an edited version of Dr. Robert Satloff's November 6, 2009, Policy Forum presentation at The Washington Institute. The presentations by Ghaith al-Omari and Ehud Yaari are published as PolicyWatch #1602. How is it possible that an administration that came to office committed to the pursuit of Arab-Israeli
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Disrupting Iran's Weapons Smuggling
Even as the West seeks to engage Iran in negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program, Iran continues to arm rogue regimes and terrorist groups in blatant violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1747. Such aggressive behavior on the part of Iran in support of terrorist groups and rogue regimes highlights a
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Brief Analysis
Iran and Hizballah: Significance of the <em>Francop</em> Interception
PolicyWatch #1600 is the first of a two-part series examining recent military developments involving Hizballah and Hamas. The second part will focus on Hamas's acquisition of long-range (60 km/37.5 mile) artillery rockets. On November 3, 2009, Israeli naval forces intercepted an Antigua-flagged cargo ship approximately 100 miles off Israel's coast
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Jeffrey White
Articles & Testimony
Turkey's Flip
Turkey's ties with its neighbors have been transformed since the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, came to power seven years ago. Some analysts have described the AKP's foreign policy as a "zero problems with neighbors" approach. However, Turkey's new foreign-policy environment indicates otherwise. Under the AKP, Ankara has indeed
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Articles & Testimony
What's in a Case?
When US President Barack Obama visited Turkey in April, hopes were high that the US-Turkish relationship was finally getting the boost it needed. Ties between Washington and Ankara, wounded during the previous US administration, needed a presidential hug, and Obama certainly obliged. By visiting Turkey on his first trip to
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In-Depth Reports
A Victory for Islamism?
The Second Lebanon War and Its Repercussions
The bloody "first war" between Israel and Lebanon in 1982 rooted out the destabilizing presence of the PLO, but left Hizballah, the Iranian-backed "Party of God," in control of southern Lebanon. The "second war" involving Israeli forces on Lebanese soil took place in summer 2006 in response to a violent
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Magnus Norell
Brief Analysis
Small War or Big Problem?
Fighting on the Yemeni-Saudi Border
Long-running tension between the government of Yemen and a rebellious clan in a remote border area has the potential to erupt into a major regional crisis, with media reports suggesting that the tension has the characteristics of a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. On November 10, the Iranian
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
A Boatload of Trouble
Ever since the end of the war in the summer of 2006 between Israel and the radical Lebanese Shiite organization, Hezbollah, there has been a major effort on the part of Hezbollah to rearm, especially with offensive weapons such as rockets and medium-range missiles. The organization has also rebuilt its
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Articles & Testimony
Hamas's Ideological Crisis
Despite its success as the first Muslim Brotherhood organization to control and govern territory, and in part because of that success, Hamas today is under significant stress. In the West Bank, Hamas faces a severe security crackdown that has driven the movement underground. And in Gaza, Hamas has been forced
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Articles & Testimony
A NATO without Turkey
The European Union has long debated the merits of Turkish EU membership. But now, nearly a decade after Islamists took the reins of power in Ankara, the central question is no longer whether Turkey should be integrated into Europe's economic and political structure, but rather whether Turkey should remain a
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David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
Abbas Makes His Move
The New York Times convened an online panel of six Middle East experts to discuss the implications of Mahmoud Abbas's announcement on Thursday that he would not seek reelection in a presidential vote he has called for in January. The following is a contribution by Washington Institute Ziegler distinguished fellow
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Iranian Missiles and U.S. Missile Defense
On November 2, 2009, Uzi Rubin and Michael Elleman addressed a special Policy Forum luncheon at the Washington Institute to discuss how U.S. missile defense capabilities match up to Iran's growing missile arsenal. Uzi Rubin was the founder and first director of the Missile Defense Organization in the Israeli Ministry
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Brief Analysis
Iran's Nuclear Program:
Deciphering Israel's Signals
Israel's options vis-a-vis Iran's nuclear ambitions are frequently discussed by experts and analysts abroad. A vast body of literature already has been produced by U.S. scholars debating whether Israel should, could, or finally would choose to mount a preemptive strike against Iran's key nuclear installations in an effort to disrupt
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Ehud Yaari
Articles & Testimony
Who's Really Running Iran's Green Movement
Nearly six months after the demonstrations that followed June's disputed presidential election, Iran's pro-democracy "green movement" is as strong as ever. Rallies took place in downtown Tehran today, having been in the works for months through Twitter, blogs, and word of mouth. Iran, it seems, is on the verge of
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Articles & Testimony
Israel as an al-Qaeda Target:
Sorting Rhetoric from Reality
Since the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is perhaps the single most animating regional conflict for many Arabs and Muslims, its resonance provides al-Qaeda with a powerful rhetorical tool for radicalization, recruitment, and fundraising. Matthew Levitt's article shows how al-Qaeda has always been interested in the Palestinian issue, demonstrates the gap between al-Qaeda's
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Brief Analysis
Germany's New Cabinet on Turkey's EU Accession:
Implications for U.S. Policy
On October 25, a coalition government in Germany, comprising the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Christian Social Union (CSU), and Free Democrat Party (FDP), formed a new cabinet. The following statements by prominent representatives of Germany's new coalition partners -- voicing both strong opposition to Turkey's EU accession by the CDU-CSU
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
'Kurdish Opening' Closed Shut
On Oct. 24, Kurdish migrant farm workers started a fight in the town of Ipsala, in the northwest region of Turkey. After the Kurdish workers apparently harassed local girls, some of the town's youth attacked the workers in retaliation. The conflict escalated, and the Kurdish workers were forced to take
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Brief Analysis
The NDP Conference and Egypt's Future
On October 31, Egypt's ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) will hold its sixth party conference. Coming a year prior to the November 2010 parliamentary elections, the NDP will use the conference to articulate its platform and campaign agenda. Broadly speaking, much of the party's electoral strategy has already emerged, via
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Mohamed Abdelbaky
David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Peacebuilding amid Terrorism:
Fragile Gains in Somalia
PolicyWatch #1594 is the second in a two-part series discussing trends in Somalia. This piece focuses on peacebuilding efforts and Somalia's ties to terrorism, while PolicyWatch #1593 addresses the country's growing insurgency. On September 14, 2009, U.S. special forces killed Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, a senior leader of al-Qaeda's East
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Articles & Testimony
Is Turkey Leaving the West?
In early October, Turkey disinvited Israel from Anatolian Eagle, an annual Turkish air force exercise that it had held with Israel, NATO, and the United States since the mid-1990s. It marked the first time Turkey's governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) let its increasingly anti-Western rhetoric spill into its foreign
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