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Articles & Testimony
Road Map Torn by Ambiguity
There is something intellectually dishonest about a "peace process" that tacitly promises mutually exclusive demands to the Israelis and Palestinians by papering over their differences until they inevitably collide. In the parlance of diplomacy, this is called "creative ambiguity." It formed the basis of the failed Oslo accords in the
۲۸ مهٔ ۲۰۰۳
Brief Analysis
Iranian Nuclear Weapons (Part I):
The Challenges of U.S. Preventive Action
Having just fought a war to rid Iraq of weapons of mass destruction, and alarmed by fresh signs of dramatic progress by Tehran in the nuclear arena, the United States is pressing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to declare Iran in violation of its commitments under the Treaty on
۲۷ مهٔ ۲۰۰۳
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
From Acceptance to Implementation:
Next Steps for the Roadmap
Israel's cautious approval of the Roadmap opens a new phase in Middle East peacemaking. Although media focus will now turn to the next episode of high-level engagement by President George W. Bush—perhaps at a Jordan- or Egypt-hosted regional summit in early June—the real test for Washington and its Quartet colleagues
۲۷ مهٔ ۲۰۰۳
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
U.S.-Saudi Counterterrorism Cooperation in the Wake of the Riyadh Bombing
The recent bombings in Riyadh and Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah's remarks condemning them have raised expectations that U.S.-Saudi counterterrorism cooperation will improve so that such tragedies can be averted in the future. What internal dynamic will guide the Saudis' handling of this crisis? What sort of counterterrorism cooperation are they
۲۳ مهٔ ۲۰۰۳
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Simon Henderson
Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
The 'Cycle of Violence' Fallacy
The Arab-Israeli conflict is often framed as a "cycle of violence." A strong Israeli policy against Palestinian terrorism will only spawn more attacks against Israel, goes the logic. Conversely, if only Israel made unilateral concessions to the Palestinians, it would find a partner for peace. This is the conventional wisdom
۲۲ مهٔ ۲۰۰۳
Articles & Testimony
A Terrorist U.S. Ally?
One of the stranger news items coming out of Iraq these days concerns an Iranian opposition group called the Mujahedeen-e Khalq (MEK). It's a U.S. government-designated terrorist organization that coalition forces first bombed from the air, then signed a cease-fire agreement with -- and finally disarmed and protected. Say that
۲۰ مهٔ ۲۰۰۳
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Role of Broadcast Media in Influence Operations in Iraq
Successfully shaping Iraqi public perceptions is vitally important, particularly since other well-known means of influencing the public -- creating stability and reestablishing water, power, and other public welfare services -- are taking longer than expected. Yet, the coalition has arguably been slower to shape the Iraqi media environment than either
۱۹ مهٔ ۲۰۰۳
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Don't Treat the 'Road Map' As Gospel, and Tread Cautiously
After last week's synchronized terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia and the management shake-up of the U.S. occupation team in Iraq, Americans were reminded that victory over Saddam Hussein did not miraculously compel the region's lions to lie down with its lambs. If dealing with these and other challenges were not
۱۸ مهٔ ۲۰۰۳
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Polling in Iran:
Surprising Questions
The difficulties facing Iranians who want to express their opinions freely in print are legion. In an atmosphere where journalists and pollsters are often detained without trial, it is easy to assume that pollsters do not ask important questions and that respondents do not give serious answers. Yet, some very
۱۴ مهٔ ۲۰۰۳
Brief Analysis
An Arab Liberal Looks at the Post-Saddam Middle East
The fall of Saddam Husayn's regime is a seminal moment in the Middle East. President George W. Bush has called for democratization in the region, and the predicted results vary widely, ranging from Arab radicalization to Islamist militancy to rapid political and economic liberalization. Although liberalism is a minority voice
۱۳ مهٔ ۲۰۰۳
Brief Analysis
Terror from Damascus (Part II):
Hizballah and al-Qaeda Terrorist Activity in Syria
Secretary of State Colin Powell's recent talks in Damascus focused not only on Syrian sponsorship of Palestinian terrorist groups, but also on Syria's increasingly intimate ties with and support for Hizballah. Yet, Syrian support for terrorist groups of global reach does not end with Hizballah. Recently revealed intelligence on al-Qaeda
۹ مهٔ ۲۰۰۳
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Mideast Peace, One Day at a Time
In the last week the prospects for peace between Israelis and Palestinians appeared to be improving. The Palestinians approved Mahmoud Abbas as their first-ever prime minister, and he declared that terrorism threatened to destroy the Palestinian cause -- language one never heard from Yasir Arafat. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of
۸ مهٔ ۲۰۰۳
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Terror from Damascus (Part I):
The Palestinian Terrorist Presence in Syria
Syrian sponsorship of terrorism topped the agenda of Secretary of State Colin Powell's recent trip to Damascus, and his visit was quickly followed by conflicting reports regarding the status of various terrorist headquarters there. The coming weeks will determine whether the Damascus offices of Hizballah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)
۷ مهٔ ۲۰۰۳
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Implementing the Roadmap:
Assessing the Prospective Monitoring Mechanism
With last week's formal unveiling of the Roadmap, the Arab-Israeli peace process has moved into a new phase that is its most internationalized in a quarter century. The establishment of the Roadmap's all-important "verification mechanism"—the structure of which has largely been worked out among the Quartet's U.S., European Union (EU)
۶ مهٔ ۲۰۰۳
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Hizballah on the Defensive
Nervous about recent Middle East developments and major threats looming in the future, Hizballah is taking defensive steps inside Lebanon and stepping up its rhetoric against the United States. Hizballah's Nightmare In almost all of his speeches, Hizballah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah has spoken about the pride that his organization brought
۶ مهٔ ۲۰۰۳
Brief Analysis
Hamas Blood Money:
Mixing Good Works and Terror is No Formula for Peace
Within hours of Mahmoud Abbas's (Abu Mazen) confirmation as the new Palestinian prime minister and the presentation of the Quartet's roadmap to peace, two suicide bombers struck a seaside bar next to the U.S. embassy in Tel Aviv, killing three civilians and wounding sixty more. As is frequently the case
۵ مهٔ ۲۰۰۳
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Hizballah's Message of Hate and Powell's Levant Visit
As Secretary of State Colin Powell prepares to visit Syria and Lebanon on May 3, his agenda will most likely address the war on terrorism. The most active support for terrorism from both Damascus and Beirut is for Hizballah. To understand what the group's aims and ambitions are, few sources
۲ مهٔ ۲۰۰۳
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Avi Jorisch
Articles & Testimony
Palestinian Prime Minister Will Go Nowhere If He Attempts a Solo Act
For the first time in Palestinian history, there is a Palestinian prime minister. Though the timing of the appointment can be attributed to the Bush administration's determination not to deal with Yasser Arafat and the pressure of the international community, the idea of having a prime minister came from Palestinian
۲ مهٔ ۲۰۰۳
◆
Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Assessing Mahmoud Abbas's PLC Address:
Many Messages, Many Audiences
Addressing the Palestinian Legislative Council Tuesday, new Palestinian Authority (PA) prime minister Mahmoud Abbas outlined a bold program of domestic reform and commitment to diplomacy that balanced loyalty to Yasir Arafat with an evident desire for fundamental political change. The speech's most positive aspects were Abbas's affirmation of negotiations as
۱ مهٔ ۲۰۰۳
◆
Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Challenges Facing Abu Mazen's Government
Mahmoud Abbas—better known as Abu Mazen—represents a moderate course of thinking in Palestinian politics and a marked departure from the policy of intransigence and duplicity that has characterized Yasir Arafat's tainted regime. Specifically, he has challenged the premise of emphasizing national unity before national responsibility; in other words, turning a
۱ مهٔ ۲۰۰۳
◆
Dennis Ross
David Makovsky
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