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Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Who to Blame for the Absence of a Kurdish State after Sykes Picot?
Last month, many Kurds mourned the 100th anniversary of the Sykes-Picot agreement, signed on May 16 1916, which laid down the foundation for today’s nation states in the Middle East. Arguably, no single ethnic group despises this agreement more than the Kurds, who often view it as a moratorium on
۱ ژوئن ۲۰۱۶
◆
Yerevan Saeed
In-Depth Reports
Iraq's Imperiled Democracy
This essay, the sixth in a series exploring prospects for political reform throughout the Middle East, analyzes the unique perils facing democratic governance in Iraq, particularly the dangerous Islamist alternatives masquerading under the guise of theocracy.
۱ ژوئن ۲۰۱۶
◆
Nathaniel Rabkin
Brief Analysis
Bahrain's Game of Detainee Diplomacy With Washington
The government in Manama, the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, blames Iran for supporting the Shiite opposition and downplays the threat of Sunni extremist support for the Islamic State.
۱ ژوئن ۲۰۱۶
◆
Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Losing by Winning: The Rupture of the Israeli Center
The new Israeli government reflects the country's increasing polarization and leaves Netanyahu with limited room for maneuver, making it difficult for him to preempt the growing momentum behind efforts to internationalize the Palestinian issue.
۳۱ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
David Makovsky
Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Assessing the New AKP Cabinet
Turkey's incoming government reflects the regionalization of political power, outsize influence from religious schools, and the sidelining of Kurds and women, as well as pointing to the emergence of an exclusive governing-party system.
۳۱ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Soner Cagaptay
Cem Yolbulan
Brief Analysis
Iran's Parliamentary Speaker Election Is No Step Forward for Rouhani
Ali Larijani's projected victory likely won't help Rouhani, who needs ample support from parliament in order to bolster his chances of winning next year's presidential election.
۲۷ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Mehdi Khalaji
Brief Analysis
Iran's Air Force Overshadowed by the IRGC
A recent crash highlights the air force's struggles to maintain its readiness and budget at a time when Revolutionary Guard leaders are pushing for a deterrence posture based solely on their own ballistic missile arsenal.
۲۷ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
The Aerial Delivery of Humanitarian Aid in Syria: Options and Constraints
While airlift operations may provide temporary relief for a number of besieged and hard-to-reach communities, urgently enhancing the military capabilities of moderate opposition groups is ultimately the only way to effectively counter the Assad regime's use of food as a weapon.
۲۷ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
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Michael Eisenstadt
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Northern Syria’s New Democratic Federal System
On March 17, the PYD declared the establishment of the Founding Council of Democratic Federal System in Rojava and announced the declaration of a democratic federal system for northern Syria. Analyzing the result of this declaration can provide a better view of the PYD’s strategic policies and goals and how
۲۷ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Frzand Sherko
In-Depth Reports
A History of Hezbollah Activities in the Arabian Gulf Region
Iran has long used Hezbollah and other radical Shi'a groups to project power across the Gulf. The CIA noted this trend in an 1986 assessment in which it concluded that "Iran uses international terrorism to achieve specific foreign policy objectives. Therefore it should not be surprising that despite the recent
۲۶ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Matthew Levitt
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Water Issues Are Crucial to Stability in Syria's Euphrates Valley
Regardless of who drives the Islamic State out of the Euphrates Valley agricultural zone, they will need to address the legacy of failed regime irrigation policies that are once again creating tension among local tribes.
۲۶ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Fabrice Balanche
Articles & Testimony
A New Formula in the Battle for Fallujah
The campaign is Iraq's latest attempt to push militia and coalition forces into a single battlespace, and lessons from past efforts have seemingly improved their tactics.
۲۵ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
The PKK Could Spark Turkish-Russian Military Escalation
Russia and Syria's dormant ties with the group have been reawakened by the civil war, raising the prospect of dangerous weapons proliferation and potential escalation into direct conflict with Turkey.
۲۵ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Andrew J. Tabler
Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Erdogan's Nationalist Path to a Full Presidential System
By further hardening his approach toward Kurdish nationalism at home and in Syria, Erdogan hopes to woo Turkish ultranationalists and legally enshrine his executive power, but his efforts could clash with U.S. policy on the war next door.
۲۴ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
The Islamic State Is Targeting Syria's Alawite Heartland -- and Russia
The group's choice of targets is a clear sign of its intention to inflame Sunni/Alawite tensions, raise the price of Moscow's intervention, and assert its symbolic leadership over the rebellion.
۲۴ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
Iran's New Assembly Chair Shows Who Really Won the Elections
Despite weeks of reformist spin about the spring election results, the decision to name a notorious hardliner as head of the Experts Assembly shows that Khamenei is intent on making life even more difficult for President Rouhani's camp.
۲۴ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Mehdi Khalaji
Articles & Testimony
Bilateral Counterterrorism Cooperation and Changes in Saudi Leadership
When it comes to maintaining, improving, or repairing the kingdom's efforts against the Islamic State and other terrorist groups, many of Washington's tried and tested ways of understanding the royal family's power politics need to be discarded.
۲۴ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
U.S. Support of Palestinian Security Forces and the Politics of Succession
Convincing Abbas to clarify succession and return the security services to nonpolitical control will require higher-level engagement from Washington and other parties.
۲۴ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Ghaith al-Omari
Mitchel Hochberg
Articles & Testimony
The Southern Front in Syria
By supporting rebel progress in the south, Washington could put more pressure on Assad and his allies at relatively low cost, and perhaps turn the wavering Druze fully against the regime.
۲۴ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Ehud Yaari
Video
Salafism and the Islamic State: A Video Introduction
The Islamic State (IS or ISIS) is often identified as the world’s leading proponent of Salafism, or fundamentalist Sunni Islam. The IS-affiliated perpetrators of the 2016 Brussels terrorist attacks had close ties with local Salafist groups. In their textbooks, the Islamic State promises to revive a Salafi understanding of Islam
۲۳ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Jacob Olidort
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