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Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
The Role of Missiles in Iran's Military Strategy
Iran's missile force could double or triple in size by the time the major limits imposed by the nuclear deal are supposed to be lifted, so any attempts to improve on the JCPOA should address Iran's missile program as well.
Nov 10, 2016
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Michael Eisenstadt
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Roads to Raqqa: Potential Turkish and Kurdish Offensives
In the unlikely event that either side decides to follow through on its declared intentions, each has multiple options for advancing on the Islamic State's heartland.
Nov 7, 2016
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Druze and Assad: Strategic Bedfellows
The strategically important Syrian Druze will not be won over unless they are cut off from Damascus, and even then they would need concrete assurances that international forces will protect them from hostile jihadists.
Oct 20, 2016
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
How to Secure Mosul:
Lessons from 2008-2014
In early 2017, Iraqi security forces are likely to liberate Mosul from the Islamic State, which has held the city since June 2014. As the event draws near, big-picture questions regarding how Arabs, Kurds, and microminorities can work together have justifiably drawn much scholarly attention, as have immediate challenges such
Oct 12, 2016
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Michael Knights
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The U.S. Strike in Deir al-Zour: Implications on the Ground
The episode gives Moscow a great excuse to be uncooperative, which it may have planned to be anyway, but providing clearer information could nevertheless help further the coalition's goals.
Sep 19, 2016
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
What Will Year Two of Russia's Syria Intervention Bring?
Moscow and Iran are already several steps ahead of Washington in shaping the war's potential endgame, so the next administration will need to be mindful of Putin's likeliest strategies and strongest levers if it wants a different outcome.
Sep 14, 2016
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Deterring Iranian Provocations at Sea
In light of Iran's more assertive naval posture in the Persian Gulf, the otherwise commendable restraint demonstrated by the U.S. Navy may risk bringing about the very kind of unintended maritime incident Washington is trying to avoid.
Sep 12, 2016
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Jeremy Vaughan
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Should Iraq's ISCI Forces Really Be Considered 'Good Militias'?
While Washington should continue its efforts to engage Ammar al-Hakim's militia network, it should also be wary of the umbrella group's close cooperation with rabidly sectarian, anti-American actors controlled by Iran.
Aug 17, 2016
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Phillip Smyth
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Aleppo: Is the Turnaround Sustainable for the Rebels?
Anti-Assad forces can relish a victory, but their stated aspiration to hold the entire city should be taken with a grain of salt.
Aug 9, 2016
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Damascus Control Emboldens Assad Nationally
Without a real military threat to the capital, neither the Syrian leader nor Iran will accept a political transition, even if Russia agrees to one.
Aug 2, 2016
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Kurdish Forces Bolster Assad in Aleppo
By allying with the Syrian regime, the YPG implicitly signaled to the U.S. government that the Kurdish group will act based on its own interests.
Jul 29, 2016
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Islamic State Threat in the Golan Heights
Using both carrots and sticks, Israel has so far managed to prevent attacks against the Golan, but the danger is growing as jihadist movements increase their presence in southwestern Syria amid setbacks on other fronts.
Jul 14, 2016
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Raqqa Will Not Fall Until Arab Tribes Fight the Islamic State
The tribes in eastern Syria have been driven in different directions by the Assad regime, outside actors, and their own self-interest, leaving the coalition with a complex web to untangle before it can fully uproot IS.
Jun 3, 2016
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Water Issues Are Crucial to Stability in Syria's Euphrates Valley
Regardless of who drives the Islamic State out of the Euphrates Valley agricultural zone, they will need to address the legacy of failed regime irrigation policies that are once again creating tension among local tribes.
May 26, 2016
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Battle for Deir al-Zour: A U.S.-Russian Bridge Against the Islamic State?
The survival of the regime enclave in Deir al-Zour is fundamental to the anti-IS fight, so Washington and Moscow's allies on the ground may need to race to its rescue sooner rather than later.
May 11, 2016
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Latest Aleppo Battle May Give the Islamic State Another Reprieve
Aside from President Obama, none of the main players in Syria has an interest in rushing toward Raqqa, so they will likely focus on exploiting the various campaigns around Aleppo instead.
Apr 26, 2016
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
How to Prevent al-Qaeda from Seizing a Safe Zone in Northwestern Syria
Strong ground support for moderate rebels would be needed to keep any buffer zone in the northwest from falling under the control of al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate.
Mar 7, 2016
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Two Potential Safe Zones in Northern Syria
Both Idlib province and eastern Aleppo province have been relatively spared from the fighting, and their rural communities remain strong.
Feb 24, 2016
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Ceasefire and Elections in Syria: Putin Still a Step Ahead
If Moscow and Damascus have their way, the latest ceasefire will further divide the rebels, isolate Turkey, and facilitate their ongoing military and political strategy for preserving Assad's rule.
Feb 23, 2016
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Battle of Aleppo Is the Center of the Syrian Chessboard
With ample Russian and Iranian help, regime forces have cut the rebels' main lifeline in the north, and they will likely steer their relentless steamroller to the west unless outside powers take action.
Feb 5, 2016
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Fabrice Balanche
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